澳门博彩业周报：高端需求的可持续性是关键

EquitiesHotels Restaurants & Leisure Sustainability of premium demand is key Hong Kong ◆Last week’s run rate increased5% w-o-w to MOP686m/day,helped by luck and strong premium mass performance Charlene Liu*Head of Internet and Gaming Research, Asia PacificThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchcharlene.r.liu@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0615 ◆JuneGGR could track9-14% y-o-y growth, acceleratingversus 5% inMay and 2% in April Jessie Lu*, CFAAnalyst, Internet and Gaming ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjessie.x.lu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6570 ◆Maintain Buy on MGM and Galaxy with unchanged TPs Luck helped lift run rate:Industry gross gaming revenue (GGR)came in atMOP10.0bninthe first15days ofJune.Average daily run rate (ADR)in the pastsevendaysincreased5% w-o-wto MOP686m/day,in part helped byabetterVIPwinrateof3.1%-3.3%, versus2.7%-3.0% the week before.Solid premium mass performancealsocontributed to the uptick inthedailyrun rate.Additionally,a rich pipeline of non-gamingevents(Ex.3)in June has likely helped draw crowdsamidseasonal weaknessin June.By segment, mass ADR wasdown slightly by 1-3% m-o-m (vsdown 5% the weekbefore),whileVIP volume waslargely flatm-o-m (vsdown 1-3% the week before). Lauren Cai*AssociateGuangzhou * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Juneto track9-14% y-o-y growth:Assuming the restofJunewere togenerateADR ofMOP620-680m/day, full-month GGR should be MOP19.3-20.2bn,representing9-14%y-o-ygrowth.Thisimplies 2Q25GGRcould track 5-7% y-o-ygrowth.Despite resilientweeklyGGR performancesince late May,the sector’ssharepricehas remained flat over the past 3 weeks at +0.4% on average (vs HSI +1.2%).Webelievemore sustainable evidence of improvementinthepremium segmentcould becrucial to driveameaningful re-rating of the sector. Stock preference:Wecontinue to like MGM China (2282HK,CMPHKD10.68,Buy)given its strong return on invested capital, valuation at7.2x 2025e EV/EBITDA, and5.6% dividend yield.Againsta more-challenging operating backdrop, MGM’s strongexecution and efficient operation should drive more-resilient results. We also likeGalaxy (27 HK,CMPHKD32.75, Buy)forits ongoingramp-up of Phase 3 andasthelaunch ofitsCapella Hotel in mid-2025 should supportmarketshare gains,especiallyintheevent that overall market growth improvessoonerthan expected. HSBC Global Research Podcasts Listen to our insights Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and theanalyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.MDDI (P) 005/01/2025 MDDI (P) 006/09/2024 MDDI (P) 004/10/2024 MDDI (P) 020/10/2024 View HSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Valuation and risks Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The followinganalyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s)of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and anyotherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Charlene Liu and Jessie Lu, CFA Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes aninvestor's decision to buy or sell a stock shoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from theratingbecause research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views and the basis for the rating. From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis: The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value, although we exp