澳门博彩业周报：新的高端产能吸引了高端需求

Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.MDDI (P) 005/01/2025 MDDI (P) 006/09/2024 MDDI (P) 004/10/2024 MDDI (P) 020/10/2024Last week’s run rate increased 16% w-o-w toMOP686m/day,drivenbythepremium segmentMay GGR could track 4-7% y-o-y growth (vs. 2% in Apr)Maintain Buy on MGM and Galaxy with unchanged TPsImprovedrun rateled by premium mass:Industry gross gaming revenue (GGR)came in atMOP17.5bninthe first25days of May.Average daily run rate (ADR)inthe pastsevendaysincreased16% w-o-wto MOP686m/day,despitethe fact thattheVIPrun rate trended lowersequentiallyto 3.5%-3.7%, versus 3.6%-3.8% the weekbefore.It’s worth noting thatthem-t-d run rate of MOP700m/day is 11% abovetheApril level, which is ahead of historical trendsof3% highervs. April levelon average.We understand thatthe uptick in run ratelast weekwas mainly driven by a bounce-back in thepremium segmenthelped bytherecentopening ofthe CapellaHotel byGalaxy.By operator, apart from Galaxy, Sands and MGM China also introduced newsuite productsrecentlyandthese players appeared tohave gained market shareasa result.By segment, mass ADR was up10% m-o-m (vs up6-8% the week before)whileVIP volume was up25-30% m-o-m (vs up10-12% the week before).May to track4-7% y-o-y growth:Assuming the restofMaywere togenerate ADR ofMOP600-700m/day, full-month GGR should be MOP21.1-21.7bn, representing4-7%y-o-ygrowth.Apr-May GGRnow tracks 3-5% y-o-y growth, versus current consensusfor 2Q25 at0.4% y-o-y.Sustainability of the uptick inpremium segment demandcouldbecrucial to driveameaningful rerating of the sector.Exhibit1. Industrygrossgamingrevenue–averagedailyrunrateSource:Industry resources, HSBCStock preference:Wecontinue to like MGM China (2282HK,CMPHKD11.02, Buy)given its strong return on invested capital, valuation at7.3x 2025e EV/EBITDA, and5.5% dividend yield.Againsta more-challenging operating backdrop, MGM’s strongexecution and efficient operation should drive more-resilient results. We also likeGalaxy (27 HK,CMPHKD31.40, Buy)forits ongoingramp-up of Phase 3 andasthelaunch ofitsCapella Hotel in mid-2025 should supportmarketshare gains,especiallyintheevent that overall market growth improvessoonerthan expected.-2004006008001,000Jan-19Mar-19May-19Jul-19Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22Nov-22Jan-23Mar-23May-23Jul-23Sep-23Nov-23Jan-24Mar-24May-24Jul-24Sep-24Nov-24Jan-25ADR (MOPm/day)yoy %Macau Gaming WeeklyNew premium capacity drewhigh-end demand ◆◆◆-20%0%20%40%60%80%Mar-25May-25 Valuation and risksMGM China2282 HKCurrent price:HKD11.02Targetprice:HKD14.50Up/downside:+32.2%BuyGalaxy27 HKCurrent price:HKD31.40Target price:HKD41.50Up/downside:+31.6%BuyPriced at23May2025. Source: HSBC estimates 4Disclosure appendixAnalyst CertificationThe following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Charlene Liu and Jessie Lu, CFAImportant disclosuresEquities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysisHSBC and itsaffiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock shoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems todescribe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from theratingbecause research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views and the basis for the rating.From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis:The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value, although we expect it to take sixto 12months for the market price to reflect this.