标普全球轻型车产量预测- 2025年6月更新

S&P GLVP forecasts - June 2025update S&P raises 2025 GLVP forecast +919k to 89.2m units / -0.3%yoy; upgrade driven by strong QTD production in China andNAtariffrelief (more accommodative USMCA-compliant partspolicy), whilst Europe LVP largely unchanged. 2026 alsoraised (+596k to 89.5m units / +0.4% yoy) on China strength. European Autos & Auto PartsNEGATIVE U.S. Autos & MobilityNEGATIVE European Autos & Auto Parts Erwann Dagorne+33 (0)1 4458 3664erwann.dagorne@barclays.comBBI, Paris We appreciate your consideration in the2025Extel All-America Research Survey.View ouranalysts »Vote 5 Stars for Barclays » Henning Cosman+44 (0)20 3134 3106henning.cosman@barclays.comBarclays, UK S&P Global published the June edition of its monthly GLVP update earlier today, upgradingits 2025 production forecast (+919k vs. last update to 89.2m units / -0.3% yoy) to reflectsolid QTD production in China (+355k to 31.1m units / +3.2% yoy) and a tailwind to NAproduction from UStariffrelief (+434k to 14.6m units / -5.4% yoy). Europe (+18k to 16.7munits / -3.0% yoy) and Japan / Korea (+49k to 11.8m units / -1.4% yoy) 2025 LVP forecastsonly saw small upgrades. Beyond this year, S&P has also raised its mid-term forecasts andnow sees GLVP at 89.5m units / +0.4% yoy in 2026 and 92.2m units / +3.0% yoy in 2027(2026 upgrade largely driven by China; 2027 upgrade driven by China / Europe / NA) – fulldetails on today's update in Figure 1. Arya Ghassemieh+44 (0)20 7773 3442arya.ghassemieh@barclays.comBarclays, UK U.S. Autos & Mobility Dan Levy+1 212 526 3212dan.levy@barclays.comBCI, US We believe that the June revisions potentially set up US OEM and suppliers for beats in 2Q,given the positive revisions to NA LVP. Josh Cho+1 212 526 7156joshua.cho@barclays.comBCI, US Key highlights / comments from this monthly update: •Europe– S&P marginally revised up its Europe LVP forecasts for 2025 (+18k to 16.7m units /-3.0% yoy) reflecting a stronger-than-expected YTD production run-rate (H1 raised by +66kunits) partially thenoffsetby expectations for a weaker H2. On an OEM level, VW (+24k units),MBG (+14k units) and RNO (+15k units) saw the largest upgrades to 2025 LVP. S&P also slightlyincreased its 2026 LVP forecasts (+36k to 16.7m units / +0.5%), reflecting S&P's newassumptions for a reduction on US importtariffsfrom the start of next year, whilst 2027 LVPwas more meaningfully raised (+252k to 17.2m units / +3.0%) due to an improved productionoutlook for Germany, Turkey and the UK. •Greater China– S&P upgraded its mid-term China LVP forecast, with 2025 LVP raised by+355k to 31.1m units / +3.2% yoy, 2026 raised by +389k to 31.1m / +0.1% yoy, and 2027 raisedby +193k to 31.5m units / +1.4% yoy. S&P highlights that scrappage and NEV subsidies havesupported Q2 sales and sustained OEM destockingeffortsduring the quarter, whilst exportactivity has also rebounded in May. As such the majority of the 2025 upgrade was related toQ2 (+289k units) implying only a marginal "underlying" upgrade to 2025 LVP, whilst beyond2025 S&P raised its forecasts to reflect an improved demand outlook. On an OEM level wenote that both international and domestic OEMs saw increases to their production forecastsin today's update (see Figure 12). •North America– S&P raised its 2025 NA LVP forecast by +434k to 14.6m units / -5.4% yoyreflecting a tailwind to US production fromtariffrelief (exemption of USMCA compliant partsand two-yeartariffadjustments for non-compliant parts). S&P notes that Q2 production hasbeen running stronger than expected (+125k units), with a stronger run-rate also expected inQ3 (+294k units). At OEM level, all of the D3 saw meaningful upgrades to their 2025 LVP: GM+101k units, F +93k units and STLA +53k units. Beyond 2025, S&P made a modest upgrade toits 2026 forecast although it is now expected to decline yoy (+63k to 14.5m units / -0.5% yoy),whilst 2027 saw a more meaningful upgrade (+233k to 15.7m units / +7.8% yoy). °F:2Q flat, with NA -1% y/y and F-Series -1% y/y. 2025 F NA raised to -9% y/y (prior -13%)and F-Series raised to -3% y/y (prior -6%), with increases largely to 3Q. °GM:2Q slightly raised, with NA flat % y/y (prior -1%) and T1XX flat % y/y. 2025 GM NA raisedto -7% y/y (prior -11%) and T1XX raised to -5% y/y (prior -8%), with increases largely to 3Q. FIGURE 1. S&P Global LV production forecast revisions vs. prior forecast Note: S&P Global estimates as of June 2025Source: S&P Global Mobility Source: Barclays Research estimates, S&P Global Mobility Note top 11 legacy OEMs includes Toyota, VW Group, Hyundai-Kia, Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance, Stellantis, GM, Ford, Honda, Suzuki, BMW and Mercedes-Benz FIGURE 13. D3 OEM Global production (Quarterly) Source: S&P Global Mobility Source: S&P Global Mobility FIGURE 17. D3 OEM North America production (Annual) Source: S&P Global Mobility Source: S&P Global Mobility Source: S&P Global Mobility Source: S&P Global Mobility Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Erwann Dagorne and Da