大宗商品成本追踪：CHPC通胀放缓，饮料行业温和通缩，但需注意石油带来的近期风险。

Commodity Cost Tracker Slowing inflation in CHPC with moderate deflation inBeverages, but noting near-term risks from oil. U.S. CHPC & BeveragesNEUTRAL We appreciate your consideration in the2025Extel All-America Research Survey.View ouranalysts »Vote 5 Stars for Barclays » U.S. CHPC & BeveragesLauren R. Lieberman+1 212 526 3112lauren.lieberman@barclays.comBCI, US Please find our latest CHPC & Beverages Commodity Cost Tracker attached. In this product, weaggregate data from our counterparts in Chemicals research to paint a picture of the costlandscape faced by our universe of CHPC & Beverage manufacturers. To put today's costenvironment in historical perspective, we include data stretching back to 2002. Additionally, weinclude a snapshot of estimated future commodity trends up to a year out, assuming spot ratesremain at current levels. As always, we note that hedging and procurement strategiesoftentimesresult in timing and magnitudedifferencesbetween what we see in the tracker andflow-through to company P&Ls; however, we do find the tracker to be a helpful directionalindicator. CHPC Bev Commodity PriceData June 25 Industry Snapshot For CHPC specifically, during the month of May commodity prices were +5.5% YoY, driven bynatural gas, HDPE, LLDPE, LDPE, caustic soda, and the pulp basket while crude oil,polypropylene, and chlorine were all down YoY. Prices were down -1.4% sequentially, withdecreases in natural gas, crude oil, the pulp basket, and chlorine while LLDPE, HDPE, LDPE,polypropylene, and caustic soda were flat. For Beverages, prices were -1.4% YoY, driven bydeclines in orange juice, wheat, barley, soybeans, sugar, oats, and corn while apple concentrate,aluminum, hops, glass, boxboard, and potatoes were up YoY. On a MoM basis, prices were+0.2%, driven by increases in orange juice, oats, wheat, boxboard, apple concentrate, hops,soybeans, and glass while PET resin, aluminum, and potatoes were flat with corn, barley, andsugar down. As we look out over the next 12 months, assuming spot rates remain at levels seenin May, our analysis suggests moderate inflation in CHPC (+1.7%) and deflation in Beverages(-0.1%). Energy Takes:Oil prices began the month of May hovering below $60/bbl as OPEC increasedproduction, though soon moved back north of $60/bbl and towards $64/bbl given easing tradetensions. Prices began a slow move down ~midway through the month as discussions of a US/Iran nuclear deal came to the fore, with news of OPEC+ hiking output keeping prices fairlysubdued for the rest of the month. All in, prices averaged $61/bbl in May, a -3.2% decrease vs.April levels. MTD in June, oil prices have been on a steady climb upward amidst growing Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 4.Completed: 16-Jun-25, 15:25 GMTReleased: 16-Jun-25, 16:00 GMTRestricted - External geopolitical tensions (especially in theaftermathof Israeli strikes on Iran), supply concerns, andnews of constructive trade talks, even hitting $68/bbl. MTD, oil has averaged ~$66/bbl, a +7.5%increase vs. May levels. As for natural gas, prices were -8.3% vs. April prices at $3.1/MMBtu. MTDin June, Henry Hub is -8% to $2.9/MMBtu. As we think about the P&L impact of recent oil price strength, we see the impact as likely morepronounced on our HPC coverage than in Beverages. While higher oil prices will likely impacttransportation/manufacturing costs across our coverage, oil is a larger driver of raw inputs inHPC. For HPC, we'd flag oil as a key input in products like trash bags and diapers, and morebroadly, resins and packaging. Oil certainly is a key input in PET bottles for Beverages, thoughwe'd think the impact here is likely smaller than in HPC. CHPC Perspective On a YoY basis, commodity prices increased +5.5% YoY, driven by natural gas, HDPE, LLDPE,LDPE, caustic soda, and the pulp basket while crude oil, polupropulene, and chlorine were alldown. Overall in C1Q25 earnings season, there was fairly little discussion of commodity costinflation in HPC outside oftariff-relatedcost increases. Whennon-tariffCOGS inflation wasdiscussed, the theme largely coalesced around input cost expectations remaining where theyhad been as of C4Q24 earnings season or moving slightly higher. In terms of non-calendar-year companies, commodities were a -40bps headwind to GMsforClorox'sF3Q. On its earnings call in April,P&Greiterated its guidance for a $200 mmafter-taxheadwind from commodities in FY25. As a reminder, P&G sees a 6-9-month delay from spotprices flowing through its P&L. As such, any major deviation in terms of oil prices, aside fromtransportation costs, wi