中国运动服装线上监测：5月趋势放缓

China Sportswear Online Monitor: Trend decelerating in May China's online sportswear sales grew 7% in May, a continued deceleration fromthe 14% trend in April and 20% YTD trend,in part impacted by the tough comp, asMay’24 sales grew +39% YoY vs. 17% overall 2024 trend. However, increasingly, 6.18 pre-sales are being pulled forward into May, suggesting that demand for sportswear going intothe shopping festival has been soft. The 6.18 shopping festival serves as an indicator ofconsumer sentiment and brand momentum heading into 2H25 and the May trends (whichinclude the first wave of 6.18 pre-sales) were underwhelming. We expect brands withlow market share, compelling products/brands, effective Douyin strategies, and healthyinventory positions to be better positioned, while those reliant on growing volumes andtraditional e-commerce platforms will likely face continued growth challenges. Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com Melinda Hu+852 2123 2643melinda.hu@bernsteinsg.com Ran Yang+852 2123 2658ran.yang@bernsteinsg.com Jessica Tian+1 917 344 8413jessica.tian@bernsteinsg.com Despite the deceleration, online Sportswear continues to outperform the overallretail trend (+7.4% vs 4-5% in May) as Chinese consumers increasingly prioritizevalue.While offline has been softer, for online, we continue to observe a shift to digitalplatforms amid economic softness, with Douyin as the primary growth engine, taking sharefrom Tmall/Taobao and accounting for approximately 43% of online sportswear GMV(+11 pts YoY). This channel shift is particularly important for brands during weak macrocycles, as online platforms offer lower price points and function as push channels to reachyounger, more price-conscious demographics. E-commerce is now over 35% of China'stotal sportswear market. Jed Hodulik+1 917 344 8594jed.hodulik@bernsteinsg.com Nike online sales have grown +7% YTD, despite cutbacks in the Jordan brand. Themix has shifted clearly away from Jordan (-64% YTD) and Converse (+7% YTD) towardsNike (+20% YTD). Strong online growth is also driven by aggressive discounting - incontrast, offline growth for Nike remains negative, as seen via Pou Sheng’s monthly sales(big Nike distributor) being -7% YTD, though trends have sequentially improved in May(-3%). Adidas has posted very strong YTD growth of +67%, off a low base. After losing over1000 bps of share in China from 2018-2023, Adidas is now growing rapidly and beatingexpectations, thanks to broad-based outperformance in Performance and Lifestyle, andthe globally trending Terrace (e.g. Samba, Gazelle) franchise. We expect Adidas to continueto recapture some (but not all) lost share. See our recent upgrade:Adidas: From BiggestLoser to Biggest Winner - Upgrade to Outperform The Anta brand grew 6% YoY (49% of FY24 revenue mix), Fila 31% (38% FY24revenue mix),and outdoor brands Descente and Kolon Sport delivered 118% and 79%YTD growth, respectively (~15% combined revenue). However, soft offline demand raisesconcerns about margin pressure, as online’s rising share could lead to margin drop. Anta’sstore productivity initiatives, Anta Palace flagship retail store concept and product mixenhancements aim to mitigate risks, though offline recovery remains a concern. [Brand implications continued on the next page...] For the exclusive use of JATIN CHAWLA at TVF CAPITAL ADVISORS PTE LTD on 16-Jun-2025 Aneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457 aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com Li Ning grew 7% in May and 17% May YTD.The deceleration from 15% YTD for theLi Ning main brand (5% YoY in May) signals continued challenges from soft consumerdemand. Li Ning’s weaker performance reflects cautious spending and intensifiedcompetition from domestic (Anta Group’s 31% YTD), and international brands like Nike andAdidas. E-commerce channels drove growth, but we suspect offline retail lagged. Initiativesand new running shoe launches (e.g., Shadow 3, Dragonflight, Feidian 5 Ultra, and OlympicPartner products) aim to regain momentum. The company targets flat topline growth in2025, but reliance on discounts and slower store expansion (7,500 stores, flat YoY) maydelay recovery unless demand rebounds. Amer Sports +243% in May and 43% May YTD: Arc’teryx grew 21% YTD and Salomongrew 98% YTD. Online mix is only 10% for Arc’teryx and slightly for Salomon. Last yearArc’teryx also had a low May comp. We continue to believe Amer should benefit from thedemand polarization in China sportswear. See our recent discussion with Amer’s CEO (AmerSports Discussion with CEO: executing a multi-brand, multi-channel growth strategy withglobal ambitions). Lululemon and On are both printing strong double / triple digit growth from rapidlyincreasing awareness and trail.Lululemon has seen an acceleration in May amid adecelerating sportswear market. Lululemon has grown 33% YTD in China, and On 160%YTD, across 3P online platforms. Company reported growth aligns with this double/tripledigit growth range. We expect to co