陷入动荡：美国航空航天业准备应对关税逆风-评估经济和战略影响

Company Confidential.Copyright © 2025 Capgemini. All rights reserved.IntroductionThe aerospace and defense (A&D) industry seems to soar high above the dark clouds cast by theCOVID-19 pandemic. Despite facing significant headwinds in recent years, this industry wasexpected to experience record deliveries in 2025 and beyond. From increasing input costs, todisrupting supply chains, and consequently impacting consumer sentiment, the currentadministration’s tariffs targeting among others China, the EU, and Mexico threaten to severelyimpact American enterprises.A rapidly evolving policy outlook and the many uncertainties arising from it compel governmentsand corporations alike to re-evaluate strategic priorities and operational plans and to recalibrateeconomic projections. The frenzy of ongoing trade negotiations, coupled with developing globalgeo-political dynamics, will determine the road ahead. Whether these disruptions give way tonew trade frameworks and alternative manufacturing strategies or contribute to prolongeduncertainty and heightened economic friction is not yet certain.This paper explores the motivations behind these policy shifts and their effects on trade,manufacturing, and, specifically, the aerospace industry. The paper discusses a framework thatorganizations can leverage to identify the exposure to tariffs and strategic options that can bedeployed to navigate the turbulence. 2 Company Confidential.Copyright ©2025Capgemini. All rights reserved.Policy imperatives:The recent maneuvers in tariffs are not isolated acts of policy formulation. They are strategic componentsof a broader economic and geopolitical agenda to enable and create opportunities for US enterprises bybringing down perceived barriers. The key drivers behind these shifts can be categorized into the followingdimensions:1. Trade imbalances:The US has been trying to address longstandingtrade deficits, particularly with China, andEuropean Union. By taxing imported goods, thecurrent administration aims to narrow the tradegap and encourage consumption of domesticallyproduced goods.2. Fair trade aspirations:Tariffs could also be positioned as instruments todrive equitable trade practices. The US seeks tocounter perceived unfair advantages such asstate subsidies, dumping, and non-tariff barriersthat distort global competition.3. Manufacturing sector focus:Tariffs aim to inject new life into themanufacturing sector. With higher tariffs, the UShopes to incentivize companies to relocateproduction facilities, rebuild industrial capacity,and, in certain cases, redeploy excess unusedcapacity to add wealth to local economies.These broad policy shifts rippleacross the industrial landscape,especially the high-value,globally interconnected sectors.The A&D) sector is no exceptionand will likely face its own shareof turbulence. To betterunderstand these impacts, it isessential to reflect upon theindustry, to consider theeconomies constantly engaged intrading, and to identify the valueproposition this industry bringsto the American people. 34. Security and intellectual proprietaryprotection:National security concerns, particularly aroundthe theft of IP and forced technology transfers,have drawn higher and targeted tariffs. Thecurrent administration views these economiclevers to render nations’ reform practices thatcompromise US innovation, R&D investments,and long-term competitiveness.5. Reliance on foreign countries for criticalproducts:The pandemic and recent geopolitical tensionshave exposed weaknesses in US supply chains forcritical goods, such as semiconductors orpharmaceuticals. Tariffs are part of a broaderemphasis to reduce dependency on foreignsources. These measures seek to improveresilience, secure access to essentialcommodities, and protect national interest. Company Confidential.Copyright © 2025 Capgemini. All rights reserved.The post-pandemic US A&D industryIn 2024, the US A&D industry generated ~$1T in total economic activity, underscoring the sector’s immensescale, technological innovation, and global influence. The commercial, defense, and supply chain activitiesaccount for $320B, $220B, and $430B respectively.The industry contributed $425 billion in economic value added -representing 1.6% of the United States’nominal GDP. This figure reflects far more than the production of aircraft and defense systems; itembodies the creation of high-wage employment, the fabric of local economies, and sustained investmentin national capabilities. The true impact of the industry is not solely defined by gross output, but by theenduring economic value it delivers to the American people and the broader economy.US aircraft manufacturers generate nearly 35% of their total revenue from exports. This figure is as high as70% for certain corporations. While the immediate focus is to assess the impact of tariffs on import-relatedinput costs, it is equally important to recognize the potential risks to its revenue projections. Escalatingtrade tensions and th