kiawah评论-改善伊格尔福特

USA | Oil & Gas Exploration & ProductionCRGY Kiawah Commentary - Improving the Eagle Ford EVP of Investments Clay Rynd & IR Reid Gallagher attended.Investors havebeen most interested in the optionality of dry gas acreage, where our workshows impressive well results rivaling basin leaders (Ex1). Mgmt is confident inhitting divestiture targets which would also streamline the asset base. We viewrecent EF operational gains positively and believe CRGY is well positioned witha low-cost, scaled asset. What Happened at Kiawah?We met EVP of Investments Clay Rynd and IR Reid Gallagher to discussstrategy around capital allocation and value creation. CRGY recently announced a shift towardsmore natural gas activity in the EF which should wind up near the upper end of prior guidance for10-20% of the capital budget. Following EOG providing D&C capex of $550/ft in the EF (SM budgetimplies $660/ft) we were interested in how CRGY comps their cost performance. The companybelieves their guidance for $775/ft is competitive for DC&F and excluding 20% facility costs wouldimply $620/ft. The company has been active trimming its portfolio to focus on core acreage with~$90mn of divestments YTD. With an array of legacy assets in the Barnett and CBP the companyis highly confident in achieving its divestiture target. Given positive Uinta results and the wave oftransactions over the past year we think the company could direct proceeds to substantial debtretirement while also simplifying operations to become a scaled EF pure-play. EF Getting Better.Below we show the improvement (Ex 2) in EF oil productivity which CRGY wasable to achieve with its acquisition of SBOW. Lagging counties such as Dimmit and La Salle sawthe largest improvement as proppant loading per foot increased 12%. In addition dry gas activityhas seen improving well results that match leaders EOG / KTG within the basin. Peak rates of 17.2mmcfpd are 9% behind recent EOG results while 26% ahead of recent KTG vintage. In our meeting,mgmt expressed confidence in oil weighted inventory and given dry gas inventory is limited to ~200wells, which we validated in our inventory analysis of SBOW, the company would moderate nat gasinvestment when oil prices recover. We expect capex and oil production will peak in '25 in 2Q as natgas continues to rise through the year as dry gas TILs ramp. Lloyd Byrne * | Equity Analyst(212) 323-7528 | lloyd.byrne@jefferies.com John Edelman * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7412 | jedelman@jefferies.com Emma Schwartz * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 336-7254 | emma.schwartz@jefferies.com Tara Bleustein * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-7595 | tbleustein@jefferies.com Company Description CRGY Crescent Energy is a diversified US E&P with production in the Uinta, Permian, Eagle Ford, and DJ Basins. In 2021, the company produced 148kboe/d of production and generated a net loss of $435m Company Valuation/Risks CRGY Crescent's business model is based around its low-decline asset base, and a material step in decline rates could have a significant impact on productionlevels. Crescent is exposed to inflation and given its position across basins it may be harder to capitalize on synergies to lower costs. Like all E&Ps,Crescent is exposed to broader oil & gas market forces that can have a significant impact on financials. While Crescent has successfully deleveredover the past two years, a material decrease in commodity prices could push leverage back up. Crescent sees itself as a consolidator for US shaleand there is a risk that the company could purchase an unattractive asset or face challenges integrating acquired assets. Price target derived from2.0x EV/2Y Forward EBITDA, which leads us to $8.1. Analyst Certification: I, Lloyd Byrne, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, John Edelman, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, Emma Schwartz, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressedin this research report. I, Tara Bleustein, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my c