纯苯苯乙烯周报：压缩利润

淡季压缩利润，旺季小反弹1.端午节后，原油大幅上涨，支撑苯乙烯绝对价格估值。2.5月开始了一轮来自终端贸易商补库形成的淡季正反馈，当前苯乙烯下游中PS>EPS>ABS，PS改善最为明显。产业链上游液体隐性库存逐步去化，转移到下游固体塑料粒子。ABS受到家电拖累，整体表现一般。PS下游库存结构快速转好，工厂库存压力逐步降低，并且原料备货并不多，当前反而是下游中最好的。EPS工厂目前接到618订单不多，成品库存偏高，但是实际压力并不大，超卖为主。当前家电企业实际的备货情况也一般。终端需求处于低预期、低备货的格局，和年初刚好相反。这决定了今年的金九银十的反弹仍然存在。3.EB高利润逐步刺激高供应，小装置逐步重启；区域物流改变，港口加速累库。周内部分小产能装置、僵尸产能开始陆续讨论重启计划，华东某POSM工厂6月中旬大概率也会出料，苯乙烯供应在高利润刺激之下进一步修复。港口价格偏高，市场持续优化物流，港口到港货源超出预期，加速累库，预计6月底港口或达到10万吨以上库存。短期震荡偏弱为主。与此相对应的，纯苯的格局逐步改善，7月受到山东炼厂检修的驱动，库存平衡小去为主。苯乙烯累库、供应偏高、利润偏高；纯苯隐形库存逐步改善、BZN已经处于中性水平。淡季认为压缩利润是主旋律。 纯苯供应格局：产能持续扩张中国纯苯产能处于快速扩张阶段。2019年至2024年纯苯产能从1489万吨扩张至2573万吨，产能CAGR增速11.56%。同期，全球纯苯产能从2015年的6643万吨增长至8331万吨，总计增加产能1688万吨，中国贡献了64.22%。中国纯苯产能占全球的比重从2019年的22.41%上升至2024年30.88%，在全球范围内话语权不断增加。 纯苯区域供需差华东东北华南山东西北华北单位：万吨区域总供给区域总需求区域供需差 纯苯弱现实：国产快速恢复，港口累库接近尾声，BZN中性2025303540455001-0301-1301-2602-0702-1703-0103-1403-2404-0504-1804-2805-1005-2306-0206-1607-0507-2108-0908-2509-1309-2910-1110-2111-0311-1511-2512-0812-2012-30纯苯：产量：中国（周）202220232024202550556065707580859001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0603-1703-2804-0804-1904-3005-1105-2206-0206-1406-2607-0907-2208-0408-1708-3009-1109-2410-0710-2011-0211-1511-2712-1012-23纯苯：产能利用率：中国（周）2016201720182019202020212022202320242025010020030040050060070001-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-03BZN2018201920202021202220232024202505101520253001-0101-1401-2702-0902-2203-0703-2004-0204-1504-2805-1105-2406-0606-1907-0207-1507-2808-1008-2309-0509-1810-0110-1410-2711-0911-2212-0512-1812-31纯苯：港口库存：华东地区（周）201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025 纯苯进口上半年超预期，下半年预期差少；eb下游出口也较多01-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31纯苯月度进口数量（区域）:中国20152016201720182019202020212022202320242025-2000002000040000600008000010000012000014000016000018000001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31苯乙烯：出口数量合计：中国（月）2020202120222023202420250500010000150002000025000300003500001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31ABS：出口数量合计：中国（月）20202021202220232024202505000100001500020000250003000035000400004500001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31EPS：出口数量：中国→全球（月）202020212022202320240500010000150002000025000300003500001-3102-2803-3104-3005-3106-3007-3108-3109-3010-3111-3012-31PS：出口数量合计：中国（月）2020202120222023 纯苯一季度美亚窗口持续关闭，二季度调油恢复后，价差略有修复01-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1210-2411-0511-1711-2912-1112-23纯苯：CFR中国-FOB韩国202020212022202320242025-2000200400600800100001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1210-2411-0511-1711-2912-1112-23纯苯：FOB美湾-FOB韩国202020212022202320242025-500-400-300-200-100010020030040050001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1210-2411-0511-1711-2912-1112-23纯苯：FOB美湾-FOB鹿特丹202020212022202320242025200400600800100012001400160001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0205-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-1210-2411-0511-1711-2912-1112-23CFR中国2020202120222023202420250200400600800100012001400160001-0201-1601-3002-1302-2703-1303-2704-1004-2405-0905-2306-0606-2007-0407-1808-0108-1508-2909-1209-2610-1610-3011-1311-27FOB韩国2020202120222023202420250500100015002000250001-0201-1601-3002-1302-2703-1303-2704-1004-2405-0905-2306-0606-2007-0407-1808-0108-1508-2909-1209-2610-1610-30FOB美湾202020212022202320242025 加氢苯供应总量新增有限，近期恢复开工01-0101-1201-2202-0202-1202-2303-0603-1703-2704-0704-1704-2805-0805-1905-2906-0906-1907-0207-1507-2808-0908-2109-0309-1609-2910-1110-2311-0511-1812-0112-1312-25焦化开工率201920202021202220232024202501-0101-1301-2502-0502-1703-0103-1303-2504-0504-1704-2905-1005-2206-0306-1406-2807-1207-2608-0908-2309-0609-2010-0410-1811-0111-1511-2912-1312-27独立焦化企业吨焦平均利润2019202020212022202320242025-800-600-400-200020040060080010001200140001-0101-1301-2502-0502-1703-0103-1303-2504-0504-1704-2905-1005-2206-0306-1406-2807-1207-2608-0908-2309-0609-2010-0410-1811-01加氢苯利润：山东2019202020212022202320242025606570758085909501-0101-1201-2202-0202-1202-2303-0603-1703-2704-0704-1704-2805-0805-1905-2906-0906-1907-0207-1507-2808-0908-2109-0309-1609-2910-1110-2311-05粗苯：开工率2019202020212022202320242025 纯苯下游利润，除却苯乙烯，仍然维持低位01-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0810-2011-0111-1311-2512-0712-1912-31苯乙烯：纯苯：价差：华东地区（日）2018201920202021202220232024202501-0101-1301-2502-0602-1803-0203-1403-2604-0704-1905-0105-1305-2506-0606-1806-3007-1207-2408-0508-1708-2909-1009-2210-0410-1610-2811-0911-2112-0312-1512-27BZN20182019202020212022202320242025-4000-3000-2000-1000010002000300040005000600001-0201-1401-2602-0702-1903-0303-1503-2704-0804-2005-0305-1505-2706-0806-2007-0207-1407-2608-0708-1908-3109-1209-2410-0810-2011-0111-1311-2512-0712-19己内酰胺：生产毛利：中国（日）20182019202020212022202320242025-3000-2000-1000010002