钢铁行业周报：商品金融属性不断强化
增持（维持）笃慧执业证书编号：S0680523090003邮箱：duhui1@gszq.com高亢执业证书编号：S0680523020001邮箱：gaokang@gszq.com1、《钢铁：金融属性驱动部分金属价格补涨》2025-06-2、《钢铁：黑色产业链采掘与冶炼盈利分化》2025-06-3、《钢铁：期待“反内卷”扩张产出缺口》2025-05-2024-102025-02钢铁沪深300 请仔细阅读本报告末页声明 作者分析师分析师相关研究080125 P.2请仔细阅读本报告末页声明促进产业健康发展和提质升级。随着后续行业供给端调控及转型升级预期升温，叠加需求改善趋势，钢材中长期基本面有望持续好转。钢管企业持续受益于煤电装机提升及油气景气预期。根据Wind数据，2025年1-4月全年国内火电投资完成额为424亿元，同比增长56.3%，核电投资完成额363亿元，同比增长36.6%，在当前能源自主可控，加快规划建设新型能源体系的背景下，煤电与核电机组建设相关标的有望显著受益；另外油气开采及输送管道相关标的有望受益于油气行业景气周期。风险提示：国内产量调控政策超预期，下游需求不及预期，原料价格超预期上涨。重点标的股票股票投资EPS（元）代码名称评级2024A2025E2026E2027E600782.SH新钢股份买入0.010.280.340.42600282.SH南钢股份买入0.370.440.490.54000932.SZ华菱钢铁买入0.290.580.680.76600019.SH宝钢股份买入0.340.480.510.56002318.SZ久立特材买入1.531.852.082.33000778.SZ新兴铸管增持0.040.200.240.30603995.SH甬金股份买入2.202.352.642.99002478.SZ常宝股份买入0.700.790.880.94资料来源：Wind，国盛证券研究所 P.3内容目录1.本周核心观点...................................................................................................................................................41.1.供给：日均铁水产量回落........................................................................................................................41.2.库存：总库存降幅扩大............................................................................................................................51.3.需求：表观消费继续走弱........................................................................................................................71.4.原料：铁矿价格走弱...............................................................................................................................71.5.价格与利润：钢材现货价格偏弱运行，即期毛利小幅改善........................................................................102.本周行情回顾.................................................................................................................................................123.本周行业资讯.................................................................................................................................................133.1.行业要闻..............................................................................................................................................133.2.重点公司公告.......................................................................................................................................144.风险提示.......................................................................................................................................................15图表目录图表1：247家样本钢厂炼铁产能利用率（%）...................................................................................................4图表2：247家钢厂日均铁水产量（万吨）.........................................................................................................4图表3：91家样本钢厂电炉产能利用率（%） .....................................................................................................5图表4：五大品种钢材周度产量（万吨）............................................................................................................5图表5：螺纹钢周度产量（万吨）......................................................................................................................5图表6：热轧卷板周度产量（万吨）...................................................................................................................5图表7：五大品种钢材社会库存（万吨）............................................................................................................6图表8：螺纹钢社会库存（万吨）......................................................................................................................6图表9：热轧卷板社会库存（万吨）...................................................................................................................6图表10：五大品种钢材钢厂库存（万吨）...........................................................................................................6图表11：螺纹钢钢厂库存（万吨）.....................................................................................................................6图表12：热轧卷板钢厂库存（万吨）.................................................................................................................6图表13：五大品种钢材周度表观消费量（万吨）.................................................................................................7图表14：螺纹钢周度表观消费量（万吨）...........................................................................................................7图表15：热轧卷板周度表观消费量（万吨）.......................................................................................................7图表16：主流贸易商日度建材成交量（五日移动平均）（万吨）.........................................................................7图表17：普氏铁矿石价格指数（62%Fe，CFR）（美元/吨）...............................................................................8图表18：澳洲周度发货量（万吨）.....................................................................................................................8图表19：巴西周度发货量（万吨）.....................................................................................................................8图表20：45港口到港量（万吨）.......................................................................................................................8图表21：45港口铁矿库存（万吨）...................................
