先进空间技术

ExecutiveSummary TheU.S.-government-designeduncrewedSurveyormoonlanderprogramfirstflewin1966andcost$658millionperlanderin2024dollars.1Thegovernment-designedApollomissionscost$23billionperlaunchwhenadjustedto2020dollars.Sincethen,NASAhastakenadifferentapproach:inFebruary2024,thecompanyIntuitiveMachinessuccessfullydeliveredalandertothesurfaceofthemoon,fulfillinganagencycontractcostingjust$118million.2 Today,U.S.companiesfindthemselvesfulfillingrolesthatwerehistoricallythedomainofthegovernment—andtakingonmissionsthateventhegovernmenthasyettoembrace.Fromexplorationsystemstoin-spacemanufacturingtosatelliterefueling,companiesaredeployingnewsystemsfornovelapplicationsatarapidpaceandlowerprice.Wecallthesecompaniespartofthe“advancedspacetechnology”marketandincludeinthiscategorybusinessesthatprovidepositioning,navigation,andtiming;spacesituationalawareness(SSA);exploration;in-spacesatelliteservices;andin-spacemanufacturing.* Ouranalysisof91U.S.advancedspacetechnologycompaniesshowsthat—unlikeestablishedcommercialmarketssuchassatellitecommunications,remotesensing,andspacelaunch,wherecompanyformationpeakedaround2015—thenumberofnewlyfoundedadvancedspacetechnologycompaniesgrewfastestin2021afteryearsofsteadyexpansion.Morethanhalfofthesecompaniesworkinareaswherethegovernmenthaslimitedservices:40percentworkonin-spaceservicingandrelatedtechnologies,and16percentworkonin-spacemanufacturing.Afurther40percentarefocusedonspaceexplorationandscience,embracinggovernmentfundingbutalsoleveragingothercapitalandbusinessmodelstomakeexplorationmoreaffordabletogovernmentcustomers.Lessthan10percentofthesecompaniesexisttosurveilspacefromthegroundortoprovidenavigationandtimingservices,areaswheretheU.S.governmentcurrentlyinvestsbillions. Corporategrowthinthismarketappearstofollowtwointerrelatedfactors.Thefirstisthemarchoftechnology,harnessingtheincreasingperformanceandreliabilityof *Whileadvancedspacetechnologycouldincludemultipleadditionalareas—suchasspacenuclearpowerandpropulsionordeepspacecommunications—thispaperlimitsitselfbasedonavailabledataandthenear-termrealizabilityofthesetechnologies.Furthermore,whilein-spaceassemblyandmanufacturingareoftengroupedtogether,datashowsmorenear-termcommercialventurespursuingmanufacturingwithoutassembly. smallerelectronicsandembracingcheaperexperimentationtofieldcapabilitiesatscale. Thesecondfactoristheshiftfromthegovernmentasadeveloperandprovideroftechnologytothegovernmentasaconsumerofspaceproductsandservices.ThisincludesNASA’spurchasesofcommercialresupply,crew,andlunarpayloadservices,aswellastheU.S.DepartmentofDefense’spurchasesofSSAdata.Technologytransfersfromgovernmenttoindustryhavealsohelpedlowerbarrierstoentryforinnovativecompanies,usingtoolssuchastechnologytransferagreementstosupportin-spacemanufacturersornewtechnologyfeasibilitydemonstrations. TheUnitedStateshaslongreliedonadvancedtechnologiesforsecurityinspaceandterrestrially.Fromnavigation-enabledwarfaretoprecisionstrikecapabilities,therehasoftenbeenoverlapbetweenEarthandspace.Thenextgenerationofadvancedspacetechnologieswillbenodifferent.Giventhenationalsecurityimportanceofadvancedspacetechnologiesandthebreadthofwhatfallsunderthisbanner,thispaperidentifiesseveralchallengesandopportunitiesfacingcompaniesastheydelivercapabilitiestotheU.S.government. Challenges:Evenforestablishedmarketssuchaslaunchandremotesensing,profitabilitycanbeastrugglefornewspacecompanies.Inemergingmissionareaswithunproventechnology,theprofitabilitychallengeisevengreater.This—coupledwithloosenedbutstillrestrictivelimitsonexportingU.S.technologyabroadandthegovernmentprovisionoffree-to-the-publicservicessuchasGPSandSSA—meansthatnewfirmsmayfaceanuphillstruggleforsurvivalevenwithvaluableproducts. Opportunities:TheadvancedspacetechnologymarketintheUnitedStatesissmallenoughtoenablepolicymakersandgovernmentagenciestohaveanoutsizeimpactwithrelativelymodestinvestments.GovernmentmoneyandattentioncouldsupportAmericanspacecompaniesinseizingafirst-moveradvantageforthenationcomparedtounfriendlystates.Encouragingtechnologyandknowledgetransferacrossmultipleadvancedtechnologyareasmayalsoacceleratecommercialtechnologicalandeconomicdevelopments.Whetherthatleadstoaneweraofcheapersciencemissions,providesstrategicadvantagesagainstunfriendlynationsinspace,orbothisamatterofplanningandpolicy—andanopportunitytobeseized. FortheU.S.governmenttoadvanceitsnationalsecurityinterestsinconjunctionwithpartnersandallies,thispapermakesthefollowingrecommendations: 1.Federalagencies—especiallytheDOD,theIntelligenceCommunity,andNASA—shouldinvestinhedgeportfoliosforadvancedtechnologymissionswithnationalsecurityapplicationsandoutsizerisksiftheUnitedStatescedesleadership. 2.TheU.S.governmentshouldactasananchortenantbypurchasingandinvestinginresearchforcommercialservicesinselectedadvancedtechnologies,especiallyin-spacesatelliteservicing,forwhichtheU.S.governmentdoesnotcurrentlyfieldasolutionatscale. 3.TheU.S.governmentshouldcontinuetopurchaseservicesandmaketargetedinvestments(includinginfrastructureupgrades)inadvanc