1.151.500.968.098.849.422025E2026E2027E5.0x3.9x6.0x0.7x0.7x0.6x
Jason Tan * | 股权分析师+852 3767 1108 | jason.tan@jefferies.com约翰逊·万* | 股权分析师852 3743 8083 | johnson.wan@jefferies.com
公司目标：请参阅本报告第3至7页的重要披露信息。可持续性很重要顶级材料问题：向管理层提问：远见：中远海运能源 - H本报告仅供杰富瑞客户使用。禁止未经授权的传播。1) 除液化天然气双燃料船舶外，到2025年有多少百分比的资本支出分配给绿色航运技术？2) 该公司如何为欧盟的排放交易体系纳入航运做准备？1) 到2025年，100%符合能源效率现有船舶指数要求。 2) 到2025年，与2020年相比，碳减排强度降低10%。 3) 到2060年，实现碳中和，符合中国国家的“双碳”目标。 4) 2023年交付2艘LNG动力油轮，计划到2025年再交付5艘以上低碳船舶。 5) 到2025年完成100%压载水管理系统安装（2023年完成80%）。作为全球领先的能源运输公司，我们预计CSET在2025/26/27年将分别实现销售额258/281/256亿人民币，净利润55/72/46亿人民币。我们根据 0.9x 2025E BVPS 评估中远海运能源，给我们一个 8.00 港元/股的市盈率。温室气体排放。航运运输会对环境产生大量废水和空气污染。我们看到该公司积极响应环保政策，使用低碳能源，并通过智能化优化持续提升船队运营效率、节能减排。基本情况HK$8，+26%根据克拉克森的数据，更粗的油轮dwt预计在2025/26年基于订单量同比增长1.2/2.4%。然而，考虑到对“黑暗舰队”日益增长的制裁，我们预计未来几年将有更多船队被迫闲置，2025/26年有效船队增长将为-0.8/+0.4%年同比。随着美国和欧佩克的石油产量上升，2025/26年吨-英里航运需求预计将增长2/1.5%年同比。总的来说，我们预计原油轮的吨-英里供应短缺将在未来两年持续，这将支撑2025年和2026年的VLCC运费。
上行情景HK$9.8，+55%我们HK$9.80/股的牛市情景是基于1.1倍2025年预期每股净资产来计算的，以考虑更强的超大型油轮升值。
催化剂•OPEC+五月增产；•对不合格船队实施更多制裁；•船舶拆解。•新船交付延迟。下行情景HK$4.5, -29%我们4.50港元/股的悲观情景是基于0.5倍2025年预期每股净资产，以考虑VLCC升级放缓。
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公司描述CS - 覆盖暂停。Jefferies 已暂停对该公司的覆盖。投资建议记录公司估值/风险中远海运能源- H公司特定披露中远海运能源- H杰弗里评分解释分析师认证：我们感谢 Evalueserve Inc. 的员工沈薇莉为我们准备这份报告提供研究支持服务。估值方法NC - 未覆盖。Jefferies 不覆盖该公司。我们使用2025年的0.9倍市净率与14%的ROE，这相当于HKD8.00的市盈率。我们给予买入评级，因为我们看好VLCC的上行周期。风险包括OPEC+意外减产、意外的地缘政治风险、VLCC新订单超出预期、全球经济增长弱于预期和股息支付低于预期。(《马拉喀什协定》第3条(1)(e)款和第7条)建议发布2025年6月13日 上午7:13推荐分布式2025年6月13日 上午7:13表现不佳 - 描述了我们预期在12个月内提供总回报（价格上涨加上收益）为负10%或更低的证券。对于平均证券价格持续低于10美元的买入评级证券，预期总回报（价格上涨加上收益）在12个月内为20%或更多，因为这些公司通常比整体股市波动更大。对于平均证券价格持续低于10美元的持有评级证券，预期总回报（价格上涨加上收益）在12个月内为正负20%。对于平均证券价格持续低于10美元的表现不佳评级证券，预期总回报（价格上涨加上收益）在12个月内为负20%或更低。限制 - 描述在杰富瑞在某些交易中参与的情况下，公司政策或适用的证券法规禁止某些类型的沟通，包括投资建议的发行人。Okay, the user wants me to translate a given English sentence into simplified Chinese. Let me first read the source text carefully.The source text is: "China Shipping Development Company Limited operates crude oil and refined oil shipment, coal shipment, and dry bulk shipment along the People's Republic of China coast as well as internationally."I need to make sure I translate this accurately while keeping the formula notation unchanged. Wait, the user mentioned formula notation, but the text doesn't have any formulas. Maybe that's a note to keep any existing formatting like mathematical equations or chemical formulas, but in this case, it's just regular text. So I can focus on translating the sentence correctly.First, "China Shipping Development Company Limited" is a proper noun, so I should keep the company name as is, but maybe check if there's an official Chinese translation. However, since the user said to keep the formula notation unchanged, and this is a company name, I might need to transliterate it. But sometimes company names are translated. Let me think. "China Shipping Development Company Limited" is the English name. In Chinese, it's commonly known as "中国航运发展有限公司". So I'll use that.Next, "operates crude oil and refined oil shipment, coal shipment, and dry bulk shipment along the People's Republic of China coast as well as internationally."Breaking it down:"operates" here is the main verb, so "运营" or "经营"."crude oil and refined oil shipment" would be "原油和精炼油运输"."coal shipment" is "煤炭运输"."dry bulk shipment" is "散货运输"."along the People's Republic of China coast" is "沿着中国海岸" or "在中国海岸沿岸". But "coast" here refers to the coastal areas of China, so maybe "中国沿岸" or "中国海岸沿线"."as well as internationally" would be "以及国际上".Putting it all together, the structure is: 公司运营...运输，...运输，...运输，沿着...海岸，以及国际上。Now, checking the sentence structure. The original has "along the People's Republic of China coast as well as internationally." So maybe "在中国海岸沿岸以及国际上运营". Alternatively, "在中华人民共和国海岸沿线以及国际上运营". Wait, the original says "along the People's Republic of China coast" which is "中国海岸" but "People's Republic of China" is "中华人民共和国", so maybe the correct translation is "中华人民共和国海岸沿线".But in the original, it's "the People's Republic of China coast", so the Chinese should be "中华人民共和国海岸" or "中国海岸". However, for official names, "中华人民共和国" is more accurate. So "中华人民共和国海岸沿线".So the full translation would be: 中国航运发展有限公司运营原油和精炼油运输、煤炭运输以及散货运输，中华人民共和国海岸沿线以及国际上。Wait, but the original says "along the People's Republic of China coast as well as internationally." So maybe "在中国海岸沿线以及国际上运营". Alternatively, "在中华人民共和国海岸沿线以及国际上运营".But the original text is a bit ambiguous. The company operates these shipments along the coast of China (i.e., China's coastal regions) and also internationally. So the translation should reflect that.So the final translated sentence would be: 中国航运发展有限公司经营原油和精炼油运输、煤炭运输以及散货运输，以及在中华人民共和国海岸沿线和国际上。Alternatively, maybe the structure is: "运营...运输，...运输，...运输，沿着中国海岸，以及国际上。"I need to make sure the structure is correct. The original text is: "operates ... shipment, ... shipment, and ... shipment along the ... coast as well as internationally."So the translation should be: "运营...运输、...运输和...运输，沿着中国海岸，以及国际上
