关税预测与影响：新一轮贸易战下的30种科技市场情景

30 Tech Market Scenarios in theFace of a Renewed Trade War BRINGING CLARITY TO THE CHAOS Nearly two months after “Liberation Day,” markets and organizations around the worldcontinue to grapple with the fallout of a rapidly shifting trade landscape—one nowmarked by escalating tariff measures and renewed global tensions. With new policyannouncements emerging almost weekly, maintaining a clear strategic direction isincreasingly difficult amid the uncertainty. In this whitepaper, ABI Research’s global team of analysts aims to bring clarity to thechaos. We present 30 market forecasts—each showing how tariffs are reshapingexpectations across key technology sectors. For each, we compare our originalprojections with updated mid- and worst-case scenarios to reflect the current trajectoryof trade policy. While tariffs may unlock growth opportunities in some areas, they will force recalibrationin others. Either way, informed planning starts with understanding the full picture. Contents QUANTUM-SAFE TECHNOLOGIES.................................................................19RFID.............................................................................................................20SMART BUILDINGS.......................................................................................21SMART ENERGY............................................................................................22SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE....................................................23FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION..........................................................................24WAREHOUSING & FULFILLMENT...................................................................25AUTOMOTIVE................................................................................................26SOUTHEAST ASIA DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION...............................................27SPACE TECHNOLOGIES & INNOVATION.........................................................28TELCO CYBERSECURITY..................................................................................29TRUSTED DEVICE SOLUTIONS........................................................................30WI-FI & WLAN TECHNOLOGIES & MARKETS...................................................31WI-FI, BLUETOOTH®& WIRELESS CONNECTIVITY..........................................32 TELCO CORE..................................................................................................35G, 6G & OPEN RAN......................................................................................45G, 6G & OPEN RAN......................................................................................5AI & MACHINE LEARNING...............................................................................6CITIZEN DIGITAL IDENTITY..............................................................................7DIGITAL PAYMENT TECHNOLOGIES................................................................8EXTENDED REALITY (XR) MARKETS..................................................................9EXTENDED REALITY (XR) TECHNOLOGIES.......................................................10ENTERPRISE CONNECTIVITY..........................................................................11INDUSTRIAL, COLLABORATIVE & COMMERCIAL ROBOTICS.............................12INDUSTRIAL & MANUFACTURING MARKETS..................................................14INDUSTRIAL & MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGIES........................................15IoT MARKETS................................................................................................16IoT NETWORKS & PLATFORMS......................................................................17CLOUD..........................................................................................................18 SMART BUILDINGS 19Tariffs will directly increase global Heating, Ventilation, and AirConditioning (HVAC) system costs due to shifts in raw materialsourcing, sensor components, and manufacturing costs. The HVAC industry has been experiencing healthy growth over the past few years, driven byenergy consumption regulation, open software ecosystems, advancements in connectivity,and decarbonizing building portfolios. The HVAC hardware and sensor vertical has beenheavily reliant on global supply chains from China, India, the European Union (EU), andCanada to thrive in a competitive marketplace. The tariffs ranging from 10% to 54% havedramatically increased component prices, material sourcing, and transportation costs, thusdisrupting supply chains today and threatening U.S. global market share. Established marketleaders like ABB, Johnson Control, Honeywell International, Siemens AG, and SchneiderElectric (SE) are bracing for price increases from 5% to 15%, diversifying suppliers to locklong-term partnerships and investing in multi-nodal domestic manufacturing with the abilityto absorb costs to capture market share. For instance, SE is investing US$700 million inlocalized p