戴姆勒卡车（DTG）：亚洲合资企业- 2000亿日元债务股权互换及最终协议后的最新数据

Equity ResearchJune 10, 2025Michael Aspinall * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7029 8431 | maspinall@jefferies.comPhilippe Houchois ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8983 | philippe.houchois@jefferies.comKiara Asinobi * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4542 | kasinobi@jefferies.comOwen Paterson * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7548 4745 | opaterson@jefferies.com€37.93^€50.00 | +32%€45.33 - €29.61FLOAT (%) | ADV MM (USD)61.0% | 53.01€30.2B | $34.4BDTG GR^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25E156,473144,614130,19959,67658,15836,16736,25347,17462,04669,89954,61112,11815,65115,59615,3048,5101,7415,9537,2896,4427,7276,9836,9804,6935,6275,1225,5562,6283,5404,0764,0101,3651,9838181961,4981,4601,5161,5071,6503412-817452.3%0.8%-0.5%1.2%2.7%FY21FY22FY23FY24FY25E1431561611031065,5795,9696,4995,0225,1974271713302312607.2%2.6%4.7%4.6%5.0% Figure 3 - Potential JV capital flows scenario (updated maths)At 11x EV/EBIT.EURmEVNet debtEquity valueMajor owner %Major owner equityMinority owners %Minority owner equityNew entityTarget majority ownershipMajority owner ownershipTrue upMinority owner equityMinority owners %Source: JefferiesFigure 4 - Potential JV capital flows scenario (original maths)At 10x EV/EBIT.EURmEVNet debtEquity valueMajor owner %Major owner equityMinority owners %Minority owner equityNew entityTarget majority ownershipMajority owner ownershipTrue upMinority owner equityMinority owners %Source: JefferiesDaimler post JV.Trucks Asia previously combined the Mitsubishi Fuso Truck and BusCorporation (MFTBC) and Daimler India Commercial Vehicles (DICV). As of '25 DICV & Chinawere incorporated into Mercedes-Benz. As a result, the formation of the JV & ultimate listingwill effectively lead to the dissolution of Trucks Asia. We estimate that EBIT will fall by c5%,but group margins will increase by 50bps.Implications for valuation.Although the logic of higher margins = higher multiple isn'tstraightforward, in our view, there is clear evidence that this dynamic exists. Within industrials,we estimate a 0.8x uplift to the average PE based on margins +100bps higher. This could implya c0.4x PE uplift (currently c8x) due to higher margins. This would be partly offset by lowerearnings, however, NPAT would include equity accounted earnings of the JV.Please see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionDaimler TruckDaimler Truck (DT) was spun off from Daimler AG on 9 December 2021 with 10 December 2021 as its first independent trading day at an openingprice of €28 on the Frankfurt stock exchange. Daimler distributed 65% of its stake in DT while retained 35% ownership and is the largest DTshareholder. Other major shareholders include BAIC (6.5% JEFe) and Kuwait (4.4% JEFe) — assumed full retention of pre-spin stake in Daimler AG.DT is the world’s largest commercial vehicle OEM (by volume), selling 400-500k vehicles per annum. DT is a truly global truck OEM with market-leading position (market share) in NAFTA, 2nd in South America, and 3rd in EU heavy-duty truck market. The company reported €51bn of revenuein FY22 and Group adj EBIT margin of 7.8%.Company Valuation/RisksDaimler TruckOur multiple-based €50 PT equates to 2025E EV/EBIT of 6x. Risks include worse-than-expected macro environment, weaker truck demand,restructuring, new mobility investments, loss of market share, supply chain issues persist for longer, operating leverage worse than expected,and FX.Analyst Certification:I, Michael Aspinall, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Philippe Houchois, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Kiara Asinobi, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.I, Owen Paterson, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.Registration of