5月PPI或进一步下跌，因能源价格暴跌

Analyst SACNo.S0570520100005SFCNo.AMH263 EvaYI evayi@htsc.com +(852)36586000 Analyst SACNo.S0570524090005SFCNo.BVN199 WUWanyi wuwanyi@htsc.com +(86)1063211166 Analyst WANGMingshuo,CFA,PhD SACNo.S0570123070085wangmingshuo@htsc.comSFCNo.BUP051+(86)1063211166 EquityResearchReport Economics MayPPIFellFurtherasEnergyPriceTanked HuataiResearch 10June2025│China(Mainland)QuickTake CommentonChina’sMayinflationdata InMay2025,China’sCPIyoywasflatmomat-0.1%,beatingtheBloombergconsensusof-0.2%,whileCPImomturnednegativeto-0.2%from+0.1%inApril.InMay,China’sPPIyoydeclined3.3%yoy(vs-2.7%inApril),belowtheBloombergconsensusof-3.2%,whilePPImomheldsteadyatApril’s-0.4%. InMay,CPIyoywasflatatApril’s-0.1%.Decliningenergypricesfurtherwidenedboththeyoy/momdropsinthetransportation&communicationsegment,increasingitsdragonheadlineCPIyoyto0.5pp.CoreCPIyoy(excludingfood&energyprices),whichismorerelatedtodomesticdemand,edgedupto0.6%inMayfrom0.5%inApril,whilecoreCPImomwaslargelyconsistentwithtypicalseasonallevels.InMay,PPIyoydeclinefurtherwidenedto-3.3%,withmomdeclineremainingflatatApril's-0.4%,reflectingcontinuedweaknessindomesticoilandcoalprices,inourview.Thefoursectorsrelatedtooil&gasandcoalaccountedforabouthalfofthemomdeclineinMayPPI.Domestically-exposedcategoriessuchasclothinganddailynecessitiessawcontinuedmompricerebounds,whilepricesinsectorswithimprovingsupply-demand(S/D)dynamics–suchasautosandcomputerelectronics–alsostabilizedandrecordedpositivemomgrowth. Lookingahead,despiteamoderatereboundinoilpricesenteringJune,webelievetheglobalenergypricesmaystilltrendlowerin2H25,keepingupstreamgloballypricedcommoditiesunderpressure.Meanwhile,domesticS/Dconditionsareimprovinginselectindustries,whichcouldhelpstabilizetheinflationindomesticallypricedgoodsandservices,andevencontributetoamildreboundincertainsegments(seeourreport2H25Outlook:MoreOpportunitiesEmergewhentheFogLiftsdated4June2025).Inaddition,therecentcallbetweenChinesePresidentXiJinpingandtheUSPresidentDonaldTrumpon5JuneBeijingtime,whichindicatesapositiveturninChina-UStradetalks,likelyofferingsupporttoChina'sfutureexportgrowth,whiletheimpactonexport-relatedpricesremainstobeseen,inourview.WeexpectChina’scountercyclicalmeasurescouldbefurtheradjusted,contingentupon:1)theoutcomeofChina-UStariffnegotiations;and2)theactualimpactoftariffsonChina’saggregatedemand. Belowisourdetailedanalysis: 1.CPIyoyflatmominMay,withcoreCPIyoypickingupmodestlyInMay2025,China’sCPIyoyremainedflatatApril's-0.1%,whileCPImomturnednegativeto-0.2%from+0.1%inApril,slightlyabovetheseasonallevelof-0.3%seenin2019-2024.Overall,awideryoydeclineinfoodpricesweighedonMay’sheadlineCPI,whilenon-foodCPIofferedsupport.InMay,coreCPIyoyrosefurtherto+0.6%from+0.5%inApril,whilecoreCPImomslowedto0%from+0.2%inApril,albeitmarginallyabovetheseasonalfigureof-0.02%seenin2019-2024,indicatingdomesticdemandremainsinamildrecovery.Specifically: 1)TheyoydropinfoodCPIwidenedfrom-0.2%inAprilto-0.4%inMay.Specifically,theyoygrowthinpork/freshvegetablepricesdroppedfrom+5/-5%inAprilto+3.1/-8.3%inMay,withthatingrainpricesholdingsteadyatApril's-1.4%.Incontrast,freshfruitpricesrose5.5%yoy,contributingc0.12pptoCPIyoy.Onamombasis,foodCPImomgrowthturnednegativefrom+0.2%inAprilto-0.2%inMay.Fishandfreshfruitpricesrose1.5-3.3%mom,mainlyduetosupply-sidedisruptionsfromheavyrainandfishingmoratoriumsinsomeregions.Freshvegetable/porkpricesslid5.9/0.7%mom,withbothcontractionssmallerthantheirseasonalaverages(-7.8/-2.5%for2019-2024). 2)InMay2025,stilldentedbyenergyprices,non-foodCPIyoystayedflatvsApril2025at0%,whilecoreCPIyoypickedupto0.6%from0.5%inApril2025,signalinganongoingmildrecoveryofdomesticdemand.InMay2025,theyoydeclineinenergypriceswidenedby1.3ppvsApril2025to-6.1%,draggingdownCPIyoyby0.5pp.Notably,yoygrowthratesoftransportation&communication/dailynecessities&servicesfellfrom-3.9/+0.2%inApril2025to-4.3/+0.1%inMay2025,collectivelydentingCPIyoybyc0.5pp;yoygrowthofeducation,culture,andentertainmentedgedupto0.9%inMayfrom0.7%inApril.Onamombasis,non-foodCPIturnednegativeto-0.2%inMayfrom0.1%inApril,withenergypricesdown1.7%mom,constitutingthebiggestdragtoCPImom(by0.13pp);separately,momgrowthratesoftransportationandcommunication/education,culture,entertainmentslowedto-1.2/+0.1%inMayfrom-0.3/+0.4%inApril.Withtheholidayeffectandboomingcultureandtourismactivitiesatlocalities,accommodation/tourismpricesmomswelled4.6/0.8%mominMay,whileapparelpricesalsostrengthened0.6%momboostedbysummernewarrivals. 2.Dippingenergypricesfurtherdraggeddowntheyoy/momPPIgrowth InMay2025,PPIyoydeclinewidenedto-3.3%,withmomdropstayingflatatApril’s-0.4%.Overall,weattributeawiderdropinMay’sPPIyoytointernationalcommoditypricedeclines,seasonalcoaldemandfalls,andthereplacementeffectofnewenergypowergeneration.IndustriescontinuedtoshowmixedtrendsinMay:pricesinindustrieslikeadvancedmanufacturingpronouncedlyboostedPPI,whilepricesintraditionalsectors(ie,ferrousandcement)remainedlow.Specifically: 1)InMay,PPIyoydeclinewidenedprimarilyonfallingenergyprices,withpricesforupstreammeansofproductionsuchasoil