微软（MSFT）：智能代理网络可能加速AI推理开发

Rating (Maintain):BUYTarget price (USD):564.57 Huatai Research Company Update 9 June 2025│US Application Software AnalystXIE ChunshengSAC No. S0570519080006SFC No. BQZ938xiechunsheng@htsc.com+(86) 21 2987 2036 Microsoft is leveraging its enterprise DNA and Azure product advantages to build afoundational platform for the Agentic Web, establishing a coordinated developmentsystem featuring Azure AI Foundry on the cloud and Windows AI Foundry on theedge. With full support for third-party open protocols such as MCP, the platform islikely to accelerate the development of Agent applications, in our view. We arepositive on thepotential uplift in AI inference demand for the cloud business drivenby faster Agent application rollout. Maintain BUY. Key data Infrastructure for Agentic Web developmentcompletedFocusing on Agent development and the Agentic Web, Microsoft is accelerating thebuild-out of both edge and cloud-side toolchains. 1) Development capability:codingagents are foundational for rapid Agent development.In May 2025,Microsoft launched the GitHub Coding Agent, fully integrated into developmentplatforms such as Copilot Studio. 2) Customization capability: Microsoft has built acompleteenterprise-grade Agent customization system,featuring multi-Agentorchestration,flexible model selection,and customized fine-tuning based onenterprisedata. 3) Open ecosystem: Microsoftlaunched Windows AI Foundry tosupport local/edge-side Agent development. Its full development stack (cloud +on-premise) supports MCP and A2A protocols, enabling integration with third-partyecosystems. With a more complete development foundation, we believe Agentapplication rolloutshouldaccelerate and drive inference demand growth. Source:S&P 3QFY25cloud business growth beat expectationsAzure and other cloud services revenue grew 33% yoy in 3QFY25, up sequentially from 2QFY25. AI contributed 16% to Azure revenue growth,up3pp qoq, hitting arecord high. According to the earnings call, Microsoft processed over 100tn tokensin 3QFY25, up 5x yoy, with April alone accounting for more than 50tn tokens,reflecting accelerating inference demand. We believe the inference ramp-up trendwill likely continue under a more complete development ecosystem, and we arepositive on faster growth in Intelligent Cloud revenue. AI application commercialization accelerated in the USUS software vendors broadly beat expectations in 1Q25, withToB companiessuch asSAP and ServiceNow seeing significantly faster AI commercialization. Asdownstream clients of cloud vendors, these software firms’business accelerationispoisedto translate into stronger cloud vendor earnings. Since 2025ytd, strategiccollaborations between Microsoft and firms such as SAP and ServiceNow havedeepened—supporting function-level synergy between Copilot and their Agentproducts and increasing their reliance onMicrosoft’s cloud services. We believeMicrosoft’s cloud business is well positioned to capture growth opportunities in thisAI transformation cycle, with fasterToB AI commercialization driving synchronousgrowth in cloud revenue. Earnings forecasts andvaluationWe maintain our earnings forecasts and projectFY25E/FY26E/FY27Erevenue at USD278.8/320.2/368.8bn and EPS at USD13.77/16.12/18.85.Given Microsoft’scompetitive edges in AI and accelerating progress in cloud business, we value thestockat 41x FY25E PE,above its peers’average of 29.8x on Bloombergconsensus. Our target price isUSD564.57 (previous: USD468.18, based on 34xFY25E PE vs peers’average of 24.4x). Maintain BUY. Risks: macroeconomic fluctuations; disappointing AI commercialization. Financials Source:S&P, HuataiResearch Source:S&P, Huatai Research Full financials Disclaimers Analyst Certification I/We, XIE Chunsheng, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s)about the subjectsecurities or issuers; and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this report. General Disclaimers and Disclosures This research reporthas been prepared by Huatai Financial Holdings (Hong Kong) Limited (hereinafter referred to as“HFHL”).The information herein is strictly confidential to the recipient. This report is intended for HFHL, its clients and associatedcompanies. Any other person shall not be deemed a client of the Company merely from his or her receipt of this report. This report is based on information deemed reliable and publicly available by HFHL, but HFHL and its associated company(ies)(collectively, hereinafter“Huatai”)makes no guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of such information. The opinions, assessments and projections contained herein only reflect the views and judgments at the issuance date. Huataimay issue research reports that contain inconsistentviews, assessments and projections with those set out herein at differenttimes. The prices, values a