5月产能小幅增长，降重稳产利于价格稳定性

请仔细阅读本报告末页声明5月产能数据环比增加0.92%（4月为+0.96%），行业走势作者分析师执业证书编号：S0680523070007邮箱：zhangbinmei@gszq.com分析师执业证书编号：S0680524040001邮箱：shenjiayan@gszq.com分析师执业证书编号：S0680523070008邮箱：fanjiamin@gszq.com相关研究1、《农林牧渔：降重稳产下的猪价预期重估》2025-06-012、《农林牧渔：传统与革新交织，优选景气与成长——2025年中期策略》2025-05-253、《农林牧渔：618预售，宠物板块迎来开门红》2025-05-25-30%-20%-10%0%10%20% 增持（维持）张斌梅沈嘉妍樊嘉敏2024-102025-02农林牧渔沪深300 P.2内容目录本周观点...............................................................................................................................................................3行情回顾：本周农业与大盘涨跌幅基本持平......................................................................................................3本周热点........................................................................................................................................................4核心观点........................................................................................................................................................4农业数据跟踪........................................................................................................................................................5生猪：生猪价格下跌，猪肉价格下跌................................................................................................................5家禽：毛鸡价格下跌，鸡苗价格下跌................................................................................................................6大宗：玉米价格上涨，豆粕现货下跌................................................................................................................8风险提示..............................................................................................................................................................11图表目录图表1：本周农业与大盘涨跌幅基本持平...............................................................................................................3图表2：本周宠物食品板块上涨3.16%..................................................................................................................3图表3：本周农林牧渔个股涨跌幅一览（%）.........................................................................................................3图表4：本周全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价14.31元/kg，较上周下跌1.1%.......................................................................5图表5：本周猪肉平均批发价20.46元/kg，较上周下跌1.1%.................................................................................5图表6：本周自繁自养头均盈利33.83元/头，外购仔猪头均盈利-120.8元/头...........................................................5图表7：本周出售仔猪毛利205.28元/头，较上周减少8.05元/头............................................................................5图表8：上周全国白条猪肉平均宰后均重91.66公斤，周环比下降0.3%..................................................................6图表9：本周15kg仔猪全国市场价41.01元/公斤，较上周下降2.7%.....................................................................6图表10：2025年5月第3周父母代鸡苗价格41.85元/套，周环比下跌4.3%..........................................................6图表11：本周肉鸡苗价格2.84元/只，较上周下跌1%...........................................................................................6图表12：本周白羽肉鸡平均价7.32元/公斤，较上周下跌0.7%..............................................................................6图表13：本周鸡产品平均价8.8元/公斤，较上周下跌0.6%...................................................................................6图表14：本周父母代种鸡养殖利润0.09元/只，较上周减少0.03元/只...................................................................7图表15：本周屠宰利润-0.95元/只，较上周增加0.03元/只....................................................................................7图表16：本周817鸡苗平均价0.58元/只，较上周持平..........................................................................................7图表17：本周817肉杂鸡平均价6.55元/公斤，较上周下跌3%.............................................................................7图表18：本周国内玉米现货价2387.84元/吨，较上周上涨0.3%............................................................................8图表19：本周CBOT玉米收盘价442美分/蒲式耳，较上周下跌0.3%.....................................................................8图表20：本周国内小麦现货价2433.61元/吨，较上周下跌0.9%............................................................................8图表21：本周CBOT小麦收盘价555.75美分/蒲式耳，较上周上涨4.2%.................................................................8图表22：本周国内粳稻现货价2876元/吨，较上周上涨0.4%.................................................................................8图表23：本周CBOT糙米收盘价1363.5美分/英担，较上周上涨1.8%....................................................................8图表24：本周国内大豆现货价3925.26元/吨，较上周下跌0.1%............................................................................9图表25：本周CBOT大豆收盘价1058美分/蒲式耳，较上周上涨1.5%...................................................................9图表26：本周国内豆粕现货价2940.29元/吨，较上周下跌1.5%............................................................................9图表27：本周一级豆油现货价7998.33元/吨，较上周下跌0.1%............................................................................9图表28：本周国内菜粕现货价2594.21元/吨，较上周下跌0.1%............................................................................9图表29：本周国内进口四级菜油现货价9423.75元/吨，较上周下跌1.9%...............................................................9图表30：本周国内24度棕榈油现货价8616.67元/吨，较上周下跌0.9%...........................................................