有色金属行业周报：“关税缓和+就业放缓”预期释放，看好金属价格反弹

请仔细阅读本报告末页声明增持（维持行业走势作者分析师张航执业证书编号：S0680524090002邮箱：zhanghang@gszq.com分析师初金娜执业证书编号：S0680525050001邮箱：chujinna@gszq.com研究助理何承洋执业证书编号：S0680124070005邮箱：hechengyang@gszq.com相关研究1、《有色金属：宏观政策反复，金属价格进入盘整期》2025-06-012、《有色金属：美国关税风波再起，看好黄金避险属性》2025-05-243、《有色金属：中美关税缓和，利好金属需求阶段释放》2025-05-18投资EPS（元PE评级2024A2025E2026E2027E2024A2025E买入0.781.161.411.7428.3017.49买入0.941.331.541.6722.9020.55买入0.630.680.790.8712.7011.15买入2.362.102.212.384.986.93-20%-12%-4%4%12%20%2024-062024-10有色金属 2026E14.3517.749.656.602025-02沪深300 2027E11.6916.378.726.14 P.2内容目录一、周度数据跟踪..................................................................................................................................51.1板块&公司涨跌：本周有色金属板块普遍上涨.................................................................................51.2价格及库存变动：周内有色品种价格涨跌不一................................................................................61.3公司公告跟踪.............................................................................................................................8二、贵金属............................................................................................................................................9三、工业金属........................................................................................................................................113.1铜：宏观环境反复，铜价仍处于震荡盘整期..................................................................................113.2铝：关税政策反复扰动市场情绪，社会库存持续降低支撑铝价........................................................133.3镍：下游刚需采购，镍价疲软运行...............................................................................................16四、能源金属........................................................................................................................................174.1锂：锂价区间震荡，供需僵持运行...............................................................................................174.2钴：市场需求清淡，钴价偏弱运行...............................................................................................194.3金属硅：期现双弱成交惨淡，供需宽松格局难改短期硅价震荡弱行..................................................21五、稀土&磁材......................................................................................................................................25风险提示..............................................................................................................................................26图表目录图表1：本周各大行业涨跌比较（%图表2：本周申万有色二级行业指数涨跌（%图表3：本周申万有色三级行业指数涨跌（%图表4：本周有色板块涨幅前十（%图表5：本周有色板块跌幅前十（%图表6：贵金属价格涨跌........................................................................................................................6图表7：基本金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................................6图表8：能源金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................................7图表9：稀土金属价格涨跌.....................................................................................................................7图表10：小金属价格涨跌......................................................................................................................7图表11：交易所基本金属库存变动.........................................................................................................8图表12：有色分板块公司公告跟踪.........................................................................................................8图表13：美联储资产负债表规模............................................................................................................9图表14：全球黄金ETF周度持仓变化（2025/5/30，吨图表15：美元实际利率与金价走势.........................................................................................................9图表16：美国国债收益率（%图表17：美元指数走势........................................................................................................................10图表18：SPDR黄金ETF持有量（吨..................................................................................................10图表19：美国新增非农就业与失业率.....................................................................................................10图表20：铜金比与金银比走势..............................................................................................................10图表21：美国制造业PMI（%............................................................................................................10图表22：欧元区制造业PMI（%图表23：中国制造业PMI（%............................................................................................................11图表24：国内社融存量同比增速（%..................................................................................................11图表25：美国CPI数据跟踪（%........................................................................................................11图表26：欧元区CPI数据跟踪（%.....................................................................................................11图表27：内外盘铜价走势.....................................................................................................................12图表28：1#铜现货升贴水.....................................................................................