低成本竞争对市场收益率产生负面影响

Restricted - External North America AirlinesPOSITIVENorth America AirlinesBrandon R. Oglenski+1 212 526 8903brandon.oglenski@barclays.comBCI, USJohn Dorsett+1 212 526 8487john.dorsett@barclays.comBCI, USEric Morgan, CFA+1 212 526 9642eric.morgan@barclays.comBCI, USDavid Zazula, CFA+1 212 526 5108david.zazula@barclays.comBCI, US the share of low cost and low fare carriers will generally result in lower relative yields. Please seeFigures 5 and 6 where we also analyze US origin airport markets in 2024 for changes in low costand low fare carrier capacity relative to changes in adjusted yields, which clearly shows areduction in non-network airline share results in generally higher market yields.The causes of the more negative market yield impact from low fare and low cost carriers in2024 are likely numerous and potentiallydifficultto overcome.The first and easiestexplanation could be that low fare and low cost airlines have expanded at a rate not sustainablefor the market. While this could be the case at a market level, we note non-network airline shareof US capacity has not moved drastically higher post pandemic (see Figure 7). We suspect otherissues such as operational reliability, network redundancy (with hub connectionsofferingbackup itineraries during disruptions),differentiatedofferingsfrom basic economy to first class,larger frequent flier plans and global connectivity as major issues driving greater consumerpreference for network airline travelofferingsin a given market.Nonetheless, Southwest charging for bags and restructuring its fareofferingsshouldsupport market improvement, both for the airline and other competitors.Please see Figure8 where we highlight market yield performance across domestic US routes, bifurcated bySouthwest served and non-Southwest. It is clear that Southwest’s pricing structure and priorlack of additional ancillary fees led to lower market yield performance for both the carrier andcompetitors. We expect the introduction of tiered pricing, including a basic fareofferingand theaddition of bag fees shouldliftmarket yield performance across the carrier’s vast point-to-pointUS market.2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):I, Brandon R. Oglenski, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of thesubject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types ofBarclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.htm. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/CM.htm.Materially Mentioned Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)American Airlines Group Inc.(AAL, 04-Jun-2025, USD 11.42), Equal Weight/Positive, CD/CE/D/E/FA/J/K/L/M/NDelta Air Lines, Inc.(DAL, 04-Jun-2025, USD 48.98), Overweight/Positive, CD/CE/E/J/K/L/M/NSouthwest Airlines Co.(LUV, 04-Jun-2025, USD 32.27), Equal Weight/Positive, CD/CE/D/E/J/K/L/M/NUnited Airlines Holdings(UAL, 04-Jun-2025, USD