2025下半年展望：混动加速新能源渗透，智驾与机器人产业化提速

2025年6月5日行业与大盘一年趋势图10/242/256/25行业表现恒生指数angus.chan@bocomgroup.com(86)2160653601李柳晓,PhD,CFAjoyce.li@bocomgroup.com(86)2160653601 代（300750 CH/买入）。估值概要资料来源：FactSet，交银国际预测汽车行业公司名称股票代码宁德时代300750CH比亚迪股份1211HK吉利汽车175HK长城汽车2333HK潍柴动力2338HK小鹏汽车9868HK蔚来汽车9866HK亿纬锂能300014CH中国重汽3808HK国轩高科002074CH雅迪控股1585HK九号公司689009CH中创新航3931HK瑞浦兰钧666HK理想汽车2015HK广汽集团2238HK绿源集团2451HK平均 资料来源: FactSet评级目标价收盘价----市账率----股息率FY25E(倍)(倍)(%)买入314.11251.5014.3583.743.16NA买入503.25412.0023.2843.542.780.1买入22.5018.101.1821.751.593.1买入17.3612.521.6921.050.894.5买入20.5015.221.6771.601.466.9买入134.6979.30-0.3244.484.27NA买入48.9628.50-7.459-3.49NA买入56.5146.122.8262.091.80NA买入26.4519.662.4341.301.177.4买入29.0724.990.6591.741.70NA买入19.8412.561.0023.342.884.8买入73.2966.362.1547.456.555.4买入24.7716.780.6440.750.72NA买入14.2511.08-0.4922.502.74NA中性103.67116.804.2952.642.32NA中性3.342.730.4490.210.206.1中性7.168.000.4651.891.753.30.711.914.66/24-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%陈庆 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM或https://research.bocomgroup.com目录投资概要.........................................................................................................................................3乘用车：智能驾驶国产化率提升，混动技术加速新能源渗透................................................................................................................3重卡：政策有望驱动复苏，龙头市占率进一步提升................................................................................................................................3两轮车：行业新规落地，智能化成为竞争关键........................................................................................................................................4电池：增程大电池成趋势，海外市场关注关税变化................................................................................................................................4人形机器人：本体量产元年，关注零部件投资机会................................................................................................................................4乘用车：智能驾驶渗透率上扬，混动技术加速渗透......................................................................5预计2025全年乘用车销量同比增长约3%................................................................................................................................................5新能源延续强增长，预计2025年渗透率55%..........................................................................................................................................6预计中低端市场份额进一步提升，警惕价格战延续................................................................................................................................8预计2025年乘用车出口同比增长10%，新能源表现优于整体出口......................................................................................................9智能驾驶：城区NOA加速渗透，国产率稳步提升......................................................................112025年智能驾驶渗透率上扬，企业竞速L3自动驾驶量产...................................................................................................................11城区NOA智驾将成各车企下一个焦点....................................................................................................................................................12端到端架构与VLA模型引领智能驾驶技术革命......................................................................................................................................14智能驾驶双雄并起：中国内地芯片+Momenta方案重构全球产业格局...............................................................................................14重卡：政策有望驱动复苏，龙头市占率进一步提升....................................................................16政策有望驱动行业销量复苏，2025年重卡销量有望同比增5%..........................................................................................................16龙头市占率进一步提升，建议关注中国重汽..........................................................................................................................................17两轮车：行业新规落地，智慧化成为竞争关键...........................................................................18行业新规落地+以旧换新，预计2025年中国两轮车销量达5,600万辆..............................................................................................18行业集中度有望提升，智能化成为竞争关键..........................................................................................................................................20电池：增程大电池成趋势，海外市场关注关税变化....................................................................21中国企业海外市占率进一步提升，下半年重点关注关税变化..............................................................................................................21电池企业加速布局增混和商用车电池，固态电池技术正逐步突破......................................................................................................23人形机器人：本体量产元年，关注零部件投资机会....................................................................25政策和人工智能推动，人形机器人行业正加速向产业化临界点迈进..................................................................................................25本土化率提升正加速，关注核心零部件国产替代的机会......................................................................................................................26估值表...........................................................................................................................................27 2 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM或https://research.bocomgroup.com投资概要乘用车：智能驾驶国产化率提升，混动技术加速新