三丽鸥（8136 JP）：角色粉丝数量五月追踪报告

FY3/25AFY3/26EFY3/27E176.62198.57228.24144,904.0169,581.1185,364.251,806.066,011.976,077.241,731.047,117.954,158.5 FY3/28E256.55203,304.185,686.860,876.7 Shunsuke Kuriyama * | Equity Analyst813 6830 3619 | skuriyama@jefferies.com Instagram, Sanrio and Hello Kitty accounts grew 0.6% (+19k) and 2.5% (+130k), respectively.Kuromi followers grew 0.1% and Cinnamoroll rose 3.2%.Updating estimates, raising PT:We update our OP forecasts to ¥66bn for this FY and ¥76.1bnfor next FY. We raise our PT to ¥8,300 (from ¥8,000) equating to 36.4x PER and 23x EV/EBITDAon FY27E.Chart 1 - MoM change in followers on X.0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%KumamonSumikogurashiKanaheiChiikawaJan MoMSource: Jefferies, XChart 2 - MoM change in subscribers on Youtube.-2.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%Mezamashi (Chiikawa)Harry PotterJan MoMSource: Jefferies, YoutubeChart 3 - Japanese major IP character followerson X.024681012141618Source: Jefferies, XPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Opanchu usagiRuruteasakumaru100waniNaganoJunoNpochamu_QraisCogimyunHapidanbuiKirimiGudetamaCinnamonrollPompompurinHello KittyKuromikikilala(Little TwinStars)My MelodyFeb MoMMar MoMApr MoMMay MoMSanrioSpidermanBarbieSesame StreetShaun the sheepSnoopyMiffyHello Kitty andFriendsCinnamonGudetamaHello KittyKuromiFeb MoMMar MoMApr MoMMay MoMSanrioChart 4 - Total Sanrio character followers on X(Big accounts).2.533.544.555.56Source: Jefferies, X Chart 5 - Sanrio characters followers on X.00.20.40.60.811.2Source: Jefferies, XChart 7 - Sanrio subscribers on Youtube.00.511.522.533.544.5Source: Jefferies, YoutubeChart 9 - Kuromi daily subscriber.0.20.210.220.230.240.250.260.270.280.290.3Kuromi Youtube ChannelSource: Jefferies, YoutubeChart 11 - Kuromi Youtube monthly views.012345678910Kuromi(mn views)Source: Jefferies, YoutubeChart 13 - Likes on TikTok.00.511.522.533.544.55Source: Jefferies, TikTokPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Chart 15 - Hello Kitty daily followers.44.24.44.64.855.25.45.6Source: Jefferies, InstagramPlease see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. The Long View: SanrioInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•Japanese character IP market to grow structurally,in both themerchandise and the licensing business.•Sanrio's character diversification strategy is proving successful, anddiminishing dependence on Hello Kitty will reduce earnings volatility.•Domestic products sales and theme park businesses all recovered andare set to grow at LSD.•New ventures such as edutainment, games, and movie pose upside risks.Base Case,¥8300, +31%•Royalty income from licensing of charactersgrow at 15% annually.•Product sales continue to progress at thecurrent run rate and amusement increases atLSD due to increasing ASP.•Game and movie launches to have mildimpact.•Edutainment/digital grow at 60% per annum.•PT of ¥8,300 equates to a PER of 36.4x forFY3/27E.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):(1) Care for the global environment. (2) Respect human rights. (3) Protectcustomers' privacy and data security. (4) Strengthen transparency and visibility of governance.Company Targets:(1) Target 60% reduction in Scope 1-2 GHG emissions and 10% reduction in Scope3 GHG emissions by 2027 (vs. FY2019 levels). (2) Reduce emission of CO2and LED lightning. (3) Implement strict inventory control and reduction of waste. (4) Product salessegment aims for 80% reduction in waste by 2024 (vs. FY21 levels) and achieved 67% reductionalready by 2023 (vs. FY21 levels).Qs to Mgmt:(1) How is the progress through MTP? 2) How is the product development and what arethe impediments? (3) What do the employee survey results tell us?Please see important disclosure information on pages 8 - 13 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,¥10000, +58%•Licensing of characters grow rapidly, with allSanrio IP becoming major contributors evenly.•Product sales and amusement post•Game and movie launches prove successful.•Edutainment/digital grow at rapid rate.•PT of ¥10,000 equates to a PER of 43.8x forFY3/27E.through simple packaging Downside Scenario,¥5000, -21%•The value of character IP deteriorates in linewith the fall in licensing deals.•Product sales slow down and amusementtraffic fall.•Competition intensifies as both existing andnew IPs take over.•The game and movie launches incur costoverruns.•Edutainment stays unprofitable.•PT of ¥5,000 equates to a PER of 21.9x forFY3/27E.Catalysts•Quarterly earnings.•IP collaborations•New game and movie launches.•Edutainment growth speeds up. 5 Figure 1 - Sanrio PL.SanrioP/L(¥mn)Total net salesYo