海克玛制药（HIK）：CMD提供未来增长愿景

2025E2026E3,356.73,538.12.3x2.2x857.3933.68.9x8.2x 2027E3,713.92.0x1,009.87.5x James Vane-Tempest * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8275 | jvane-tempest@jefferies.comChristopher Richardson, ACA * | EquityAssociate+44 (0)20 7029 8675 | chris.richardson@jefferies.com The Long View: Hikma PharmaceuticalsInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•We differentiate our coverage by also covering Hikma's largest peer,Fresenius Kabi, and Sandoz, as well as the wider EMEA generics sector.•Implied growth analysis highlights the market's valuing of the company.•Pipeline launches underpin our group revenue forecasts with IQVIA data.Base Case,2600p, +21%•Branded continues to deliver mid-single-digitgrowthat CER,driven by larger MENAmarkets.•Injectablesvolumesbiosimilarlaunches penetrate in widermarkets. Xellia ramps up.•Base case for US generics assumes erosionof gXyrem in 2026, but CMO activities pick upto support growth.•Price Target:2,600p;Implied 2025E EV/EBITDA Multiple: 10.4x;Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s): (1)Maintaining product quality & safetyrequiring ongoing robust complianceprocedures and internal controls.(2)Patient access to medicinesin low-/middle-income countriesand the developed world and access to educated healthcare professionals.(3)Establish responsibleand resilient supply chains.ESG Targets:(1)Scope 1 & 2: Hikma has refined data collection process and set a target to reduceour Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 25% by 2030, using a 2020 baseline.(2)Aligning internal processesand public disclosure with TCFD.Questions to management: (1)What differentiates the company as an employer of choice within thespecialty pharma sector and what steps are taken to ensure the culture retains talent?(2)Is ensuringequitable global access to medicines a consideration when evaluating potential future collaborations?(3)Are there additional routes to leverage the R&D platforms for projects to improve health in low-and middle-income countries?Pharma & Biotech ESG integration sector reportPlease see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 17 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View3200300028002600240022002000180016001400expandandnewUpside Scenario,3100p, +44%•Pricing power in Gx remains at levels higherthan expected, and delivering on the pipelineand CMO strategy leads to higher revenuesand operational leverage.•A more favourable mix with the transition tospecialty products ahead of schedule.•Increased customer demand in relevantjurisdictions due to well-located capacity.•PT: 3,100p with an implied FY25 EV/EBITDAmultiple of 12.2x. 20252024Downside Scenario,1470p, -32%•Worsening price erosion in US generics,aswell as biosimilars markets,limitingpenetration and top-line sales growth.•HIK is unable to manage R&D cost increasesviamix expansion and cost efficiencies,impacting group margins.•Potential tariffs on drug imports into the USimpact HIK more materially than expected.•PT: 1,470p with an implied FY25 EV/EBITDAmultiple of 6.5x.Catalysts07 Aug 2025:1H Results06 Nov 2025:9M IMS 2 2027 guidance & 2030 aspirations are welcomeWe provide a framework how to disaggregate group expectations and bracket the lower andupper end of the ranges and make the following observations:•Branded:HIK provided Mid-Term branded top-line and margin guidance at its CMD inCasablanca which we input into this analysis in CER terms. We assume Mid 20's margin isa stabilisation of existing profitability.•Injectables:Historically HIK has provided aspirational guidance of HSD growth and low-mid30's margins. As this was pre the Xellia deal, we infer MT top-line growth is likely to be higher(JEFe 8-11%), and margins lower 32-33% to reflect investments and the site ramping up.•Other / Unallocated:No guidance. JEF assumption of a ramp-up in compounding andrelatively stable increase in corporate costs, but we note in aggregate these are immaterialto group changes•US Rx:We imply from group guidance and assumptions from other segments.Chart 1 - JEF Assessment of Segment Mid-Term Guidance.Dec YE - (USDm)FY24ActualNet Sales3,156% growth9.8%US Rx1,037% growth10.7%Injectables1,324% growth10.1%Branded769% growth7.7%Other26% growth23.8%Core EBIT719% margin22.8%% growthUS Rx170% margin16.4%% growthInjectables468% margin35.3%% growthBranded189% margin24.6%% growthOther(9)Unallocated(99)Source: Group Company Data, Jefferies estimatesWe infer segment guidance ranges from prior statements which may provide investors with aframework how to assess mid-term driversSome observations on implied US Rx Revenue and EBIT guidance within group:•Revenues:We were initially surprised our implied top-line guidance was low at c.1% to 2.3%.Thinking about growth drivers; i) much may depend on Xyrem and how the deal with Jazzchanges / if HIK decides to launch its own generic requiring its own REMS program; and ii)group growth '25-27 and 27-30 is expected to accelerate, which if driven by