达索系统：下一次cmd预计会有什么内容？

F25E23.319.62 Jun 202541.17/30.511,432.5943,07941,3066M0.616.1(15.6)06/2512001300140015001600 32.1348.00(13.3)(24.5)09/24 RatingOutperformPrice TargetDSY.FPAdjusted EPSDSY.FP (EUR)Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Looking ahead to the next CMD, scheduled for 6 June, we do not anticipate a significant rallyin the share on that day. In terms of financial communication, we think the company is morein a position to reassure than to surprise to the upside. While the message will probably bethe same as usual (i.e. highlighting its ability to maintain high revenue growth over a long timehorizon), this time, unlike at previous CMDs, it starts out with two disadvantages: revenuegrowth well below its initial ambitions, disclosed in 2023, and financial objectives for FY28that will probably have to be pushed back to a later date.In this report, we review the current hot topics on which investors are likely to focus. We alsozoom in on the few areas where we think the group could still shine in the eyes of investors.Finally, we suggest a list of questions for investors that could prompt the company reflecton the content of its financial communications, because we believe it needs to do moreon certain topics and share more of its KPIs with investors/analysts (points that alreadymentioned in our previous research reports, but on which we have seen little progress sofar). We continue to view the company fundamentals as strong, despite its exposure to themanufacturing sectors as, like most software vendors, its current installed base of customersrepresents a significant reservoir of growth. The integration of GenAI technologies intoits product portfolio is convincing to us, but how the group will monetise this remains aquestion to which we await firm answers. The speed at which Medidata's business (or evenLife Sciences) can finally start delivering the expected performance is probably the subjecton which we have the least certainty at this stage, but it is worth noting that this business onlyrepresents 22% of DSY's revenue.Investment ImplicationsGiven that we are still among those who believe the group will quickly return to high-single-digit revenue growth, we see more upside than downside potential at the current share pricelevel, given the multiple at which the group currently trades. We reiterate our Outperformrating and €48 PT.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 03 Jun 2025 05:23 UTC Completion Date: 02 Jun 2025 19:42 UTC CAGR--------Close DateEDMFYEDiv YieldEV (EUR) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)EDM (%)Relative (%)€44€42€40€38€36€34€32€3006/24 48.00 EURF26E1.46FinancialsRevenues (M)EBIT (M)FCF (M)Net Debt (Cash) (M) F24AF25E1.281.38F24AF25EF26E6,2146,5497,0341,9842,1112,3141,3901,5751,736(1,463)(2,679)(4,061) DETAILSRECENT REPORTS PUBLISHED ON DSYDassault Systèmes: Indirectly hurt by tariffs (25 April 25)DSY.FP: Read-across on $5.1bn Siemens/Dotmatics deal (3 April 2025)Dassault Systèmes: Figures were good enough to justify the start of the re-rating — now we wait for the rest (5 February 2025)Dassault Systèmes: Answers to the ten questions most asked by investors (22 January 2025)KEY POINTS INVESTORS WILL LIKELY WANT ANSWERS TODOES THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC UPHEAVAL PUT DSY’S 2025 GUIDANCE AT RISK?This seems a pertinent question, given that the 1Q25 results were not flawless (some boxes were not ticked, in particular thevolume of new license sales, and growth at Solidworks) and in light of the economic climate having deteriorated since the endof February. It is all the more legitimate to ask this, as the company already showed fragility last year by making two consecutiveprofit-warning announcements given that parameters were less good than hoped (major contracts signed have not provedas revenue-generating as projected, automotive sector weaker-than-anticipated in 2H24, rebound at Medidata softer thanexpected).From a macroeconomic perspective, while the deterioration in the economic climate is evident in the US (Exhibit 1), the gapbetween the current situation and that generally assumed at the beginning of the year is less marked in other regions ofthe world (particularly Europe and China). The rise in the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI index since the beginning of the year(Exhibit 5) is also a source of hope. is also a source of hope. That said, visibility on future developments in 2H25 remains largelydependent on the final decisions regarding US tariffs, which is complex to forecast – to say the least.We don't expect the company to update its FY25 guidance at its CMD (it's never really been its custom to do so). However, weexpect DSY management to comment on the current sentiment of the group's customers. We also expect the evolution of itspipeline of commercial opportunities to be closely scrutinised.EXHIBIT 1:US GDP growth consensus forecasts