柔道资本控股有限公司（JDO）2025年投资者日：贷款增长可持续性与净息差大于3%的焦点

2025E0.08-0.08423.1-424.6 2026E0.120.12501.4507.1 2027E0.170.16580.2596.8 Andrew Lyons * | Equity Analyst+61 293642940 | alyons@jefferies.comChristian Mazza * | Equity Associate+61 386642031 | cmazza@jefferies.comHiral Sethi * | Equity Associate+61 293642939 | hsethi@jefferies.com The Long View: Judo Capital Holdings LimitedInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferJDO was established in 2015 by a group of experienced corporate bankingexecutives to address a clear gap in Australian SME banking. At the time, thesector had largely transitioned into an industrialized, asset-backed buildingsociety model. Since its founding, JDO's loan portfolio has grown to A$12.0b and the company is already profitable, with a return on equity (ROE)of 5%.At scale, JDO is targeting a loan book of A$15-20b and expects to achieve anROE in the low-to-mid teens. While we have some scepticism regarding itscost assumptions and, therefore, forecast ROE to settle towards the bottomend of this range, we believe there is value at 1.2x book value if executioncontinues effectively.Base Case,AUD2.15, +55%Base case valuation is premised on 50bp mid-cycle loan loss charge, an 10.5% cum-div CET1and a 50/50 blend of a DCF, incorporating a 4%risk-free rate, 5.5% market risk premium and 1.2beta, and P/NTA with a market imputed cost ofcapital of 8.5%.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issue(s):1)Inclusion, equity and diversity.2)Financial inclusion and accessibility for all Australian SMEs.3)Climate action through identification and measurement of emission sources.Company Target(s):1)Reduction of 42% in absolute emissions by 2030 incl. 100% scope 2/3 operational and supplieremissions, based on FY21 (5,630 tCO2e1) baseline.2)Workforce consisting of 40% women, 40% men and 20% open gender by FY26.3)2030 Targets: purchase of 100% renewable energy for JDO's offices. 50% reduction in supplieremissions attributable to JDO. 65% reduction in business travel emissions.Qs to Mgmt:1)What operational changes are you making to achieve a 42% reduction in absolute emissions by2030?2)Is your hiring process adjusted to ensure movement towards a 40:40:20 ratio of male:female:openworkforce?3)How far are you from the 100% renewable energy target for JDO offices?Jefferies Content — ESG Made Efficient for the Financials SectorPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Risk/Reward - 12 Month View3.532.521.510.5Upside Scenario,AUD3.01, +117%For our upside scenario, we apply a 14.2x peakP/E multiple to our current EPS forecasts whenassuming 0bp BDD forecasts. The other DCFinputs are left unchanged. Downside Scenario,AUD1.44, +4%Forour downside scenario,we factor in a5.0xtrough P/PPOP multiple and apply a5% downside. The other DCF inputs are leftunchanged.Catalysts— FY25 results,19-Aug-25—High sensitivity to economic downturns,ratevolatility and insolvencies due to heavySME lending concentration (no large consumerdepositbase/mortgage book to offset SMElending risk).— TD reliance increases potential funding basevolatility, rising wholesale funding rates maydisproportionately compress NIMs.— Execution risk of recently announced high-yieldsavings account offering. Will there be increasedregulatory scruitiny? 2 Table 1 - JDO - Investment arithmetic.Judo Capital Holdings LimitedASX codeBloomberg codeFactSet codeShare priceMarket capitalisation (A$b)Shares on issue (m)Year endEarnings summaryPre-provision operating profit (PPOP; A$m)GrowthPPOP per share (A$)GrowthCash earnings (A$m)GrowthCash earnings per share (A$); dilutedGrowthDividends per share (A$)GrowthFRANKingPayout ratioFRANKing balance (A$m)Book value per share (A$)NTA per share (A$)Shares on issue; average, basic (m)Shares on issue; average, diluted (m)Valuation summaryPrice / PPOPPrice / earningsPrice / book valueReturn on equity (cash)Price / NTAReturn on tangible equity (cash)Dividend yield - nominalDividend yield - grossed up for FRANKingRatio summaryProfit driversPeriod-end loan growthLoan-to-customer deposit ratioNet interest marginNon-interest income / total incomeCost-to-income ratioEffective tax rateProfitabilityReturn on assets (cash)LeverageReturn on equity (cash)Return on tangible equity (cash)Return on risk weighted assets (cash)Asset qualityNet write-offs / total loansBad debts / total loansImpaired assets / non-housing loansNon-performing loans / total loansIndividual provisions / impaired assetsCollective provisions / non-hosuing loansCollective provisions / credit RWACollective provisions + ERCL / credit RWATotal provisions / non-housing loansTotal provisions / credit RWATotal provisions + ERCL / credit RWACapitalCore equity tier 1 ratio (APRA)Core equity tier 1 ratio (globally harmonised)Tier 1 ratioTotal capital ratioSource: Company data, Jefferies researchPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients on