美国液化天然气的顺风因素

Restricted - External North America Midstream and RefiningNEUTRALUnchangedNorth America Midstream and RefiningTheresa Chen, CFA+1 212 526 7195theresa.chen@barclays.comBCI, USEve Abraham+1 212 526 7805eveanna.abraham@barclays.comBCI, USKelsey Zhu+1 212 526 5146kelsey.zhu@barclays.comBCI, USCatherine King+1 212 526 8674catherinelynn.king@barclays.comBCI, US The plan will likely include a legal framework through which European companies with long-term Russian gas contracts could declare force majeure to prematurely exit supplyagreements.While much remains to be seen with respect to whether the plan is ultimately implemented,we think the proposal itself is indicative of the EU's political will to reduce reliance on Russia,and, consequently, lean further into US LNG supply.Given that Russia is still responsible for ~19% of Europe's gas supply, the potential phase-outof Russian gas would likely support a material uptick in commercial support for USliquefaction projects in the making. However, we would expect renewables, which currentlyaccount for nearly half the EU's power needs, to helpoffsetthe lost supply as well.Against this constructive S/D backdrop for US LNG, Cheniere, alongside otherliquefaction operators, are gaining increasing commercial momentum for proposedexpansions and greenfield projects.With Cheniere moving closer to an FID for MidscaleTrains 8 and 9 by the end of this year, the company isshiftingfocus to its SPL expansion.As previously articulated, we now expect the SPL expansion to be sanctioned in phases, withthe first phase likely to FID in late 2026/early 2027. Among the contracts underpinning theproject is Cheniere's recently announced 15-year IPM with Canadian Natural ResourcesLimited (CNRL). Under the agreement, which is expected to commence in 2030, CNRL will sell140,000 mmbtu/d (0.85 mtpa) of gas to CMI for an LNG-linked price based on JKM.As a reminder, Phase 1 of the SPL expansion is already fully commercialized, and we believewill include an additional large train in addition toboil-offgas reliquification capabilities thatwill bring total capacity at SPL to ~37 mtpa (vs. 30 mtpa currently). We look for more detailson subsequent phases of the expansion going forward.Meanwhile, at Lake Charles,ETannounced a 20-year agreement last week with KyushuElectric Power Company in which the partnership will supply up to 1 mtpa of LNG on a FOBbasis. The Kyushu contract followsET's decision to take on MidOcean Energy as a partner inthe development of Lake Charles, as well as two recent agreements signed with internationalenergy companies (1 mtpa each). Amid sustained commercial momentum, we thinkETis wellpositioned to follow through on its planned FID of Lake Charles by YE.2 • •Despite expectations for meaningful supply growth, liquefaction fees are ratchetinghigher.Based on our discussions with Cheniere and other industry participants, we think USliquefaction fees are on an upward trajectory, in part driven by inflationary costs related tothe construction of new LNG export facilities. Given that unit margins generally fall whensupply increases amid unchanged LT demand, we think rising liquefaction fees speak to endusers' growing appetite for LNG.Longer term, we continue to monitor how the outlook for liquefaction fees evolves as less-disciplined competitors bring incremental supply online underpinned by fewer LT volumecommitments as a percentage of capacity. The planned step-up in Qatari supply entering themarket through the end of the decade will likely impact this dynamic as well.At this point, we think the marginal cost of building incremental supply is likely above the$2.00-$2.50/mmbtu range that Cheniere's current contracts assume. Although a percentageof Cheniere's liquefaction fees (~15-20%) inflate with CPI, we wait to see if the company isable to further increase its LT fees to better reflect market rates upon recontracting (firstrenewal in 2036). We would not be surprised if Cheniere continues to earn a premium relativeto competitors due to the company's best-in-class execution history for commercializing,constructing, and operating LNG facilities.•LNG: We maintain our PT of $253 for LNG, which reflects ~$22/share of cash on the balancesheet, the present value of Cheniere's FCF net debt repayments for 2025-2039E (~$132/share), and ~$99/share of terminal value discounted at 8%.•CQP: We raise our CQP PT to $56 (vs. $54 previously), based on run-rate DPS of $3.47/share(vs. $3.24/share previously) and a target yield of 6.0% (unchanged). 3 Valuation Methodology and RisksNorth America Midstream and RefiningCheniere Energy (LNG / LNG)Valuation Methodology:Our price target of $253 reflects ~$22/share of cash on the balance sheet, the present value of Cheniere's FCF net of debtrepayments for 2025-2039 (~$132/shr) and ~$99/shr of terminal value discounted at a 8% target yield.Risks which May Impede the Achievement of the Barclays Research Valuation and Price Target:Risks that may impede LNG