美国液化天然气的信用格局：前端趋紧，后端宽松

The Credit Landscape in US LNG:Tighter in the Front, Looser in theBack Harry Mateer+1 212 412 7903harry.mateer@barclays.comBCI, US Project delays and damage in the Middle East pushed out thetimeline for the global LNG surplus relative to what weexpected in our October outlook. The updated trajectoryreflects changes in timing rather than in underlyingfundamentals. We expect a surplus to re-emerge moresharply post-2028. Paul Chambers+1 713 236 2455paul.d.chambers@barclays.comBCI, US Toni Sun+1 212 526 0984yutong.sun@barclays.comBCI, US Key Takeaways •Relative to our initial estimates (Here Comes the Surplus), global LNG oversupply has beendeferred, not canceled.Near-term balances (2026-28) are tighter than our October outlookdue to Middle East infrastructure damage and a delay in Qatar's planned expansion ramp.However, it does not alter the broader trajectory toward oversupply, as the supply wave isdeferred rather than canceled. Moreover, there were new FID/expansion announcements inMarch 2026 that are now added into our estimates. •Peak annual oversupply now looks worse.Medium-term surplus risk has increased, with274 mtpa of global capacity expected to come online by 2030 and utilization projected to fallinto the low-70% range by 2029. A key caveat is Qatar, where we assume two trains areofflinefor five years (the longer end of Qatar's guidance), but also that expansions are delayed byonly one year; if those projects are further delayed, it would push out our surplus. •Security-of-supply concerns could accelerate contracting for US LNG assets, supporting creditquality and project bankability, but at the cost of additional contracted volumes ultimatelyadding to late-decade oversupply. •From a credit perspective, our tighter near-term LNG market balances make us more willingto recommend holdco and/or merchant-exposed structures, but with a preference for stayingshorter on the curve. •Our Appendix includes a list of existing and planned facilities through 2030. Trade Ideas: •Buy FLEXIH 2031s. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 14.Completed: 10-Apr-26, 20:48 GMTReleased: 13-Apr-26, 10:55 GMTRestricted - External •Buy VENLNG 9.5% 2029 bullets. What's Changed Since October Qatar The single biggest delta versus our October 2025 estimates is a direct result of the conflict in theMiddle East, with Qatar bothsufferingdamage to existing facilities (Trains 4 and 6, shaving 12.8mtpa from supply for the next three to five years, per Qatar Petroleum) and deferring the start-up of new capacity until at least 2027. In our project tracker, we move the start-up of Qatar'sNorth Field East project out by a year, with Trains 1 and 2 to 2027 (from 2026) and Trains 3 and 4to 2028 (from 2027). For the damage to Qatar Petroleum's existing facilities atRasLaffan,we usea conservative assumption that the 12.8 mtpa of capacity will beofflinethrough 2030. Aside from the direct LNG disruption implications, we think the events in the Middle East couldhave longer-tailedeffects,as security of supply comes back to the fore, helping to underwritenew long-term contracts for non-Middle East capacity. That said, this may ultimately prove toexacerbate global LNG oversupply, even if it puts some projects on firmer (ie, more-contracted)footing. New FIDs/Expansions Recent project developments continue to tilt the medium-term LNG balance toward surplus.Venture Global reached Phase 2 FID at CP2 LNG in March 2026, fully sanctioning the project's 29mtpa nameplate capacity. In addition, Venture Global is adding a bolt-on expansion at CP2,adding a further 6.4 mtpa, with a start-up assumed in late-2028. Venture Global has targeted acapacity of 81mtpa before 2030, and an ultimately production output near 100mtpa,highlighting the meaningful growth ahead. Near-term, Golden Pass LNG achieved first LNG inMarch 2026, further contributing to incremental US supply as projects continue to ramp,although this project was in our previous balances. Third-Party Estimates and Chinese Demand As discussed in our original note in 2017, based on projects in operation and under constructionat the time, Shell projected a global LNG deficit by 2030, indicating the need for moreliquefaction capacity. We constructed a time series by taking Shell's 2030 global LNG supply anddemand forecast ranges from each annual outlook and comparing how these projections haveevolved over time. The company's latest 2026 outlook, which admittedly was released beforethe Iran conflict, suggests a larger surplus in