V和MA美国交易量与个人消费支出（PCE）对比：美国现金到信用卡的顺风因素仍然存在

Trevor Williams * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1546 | twilliams3@jefferies.comAlexander Glockner * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-8729 | aglockner@jefferies.comRyan Levine * | Equity Associate+1 (415) 229-1512 | rlevine4@jefferies.comOn a reported basis (ex-Leap Year, Easter), V& MA US payment volume grew 1.3x PCE in1Q; after our adjustments for above-normalinflation in under-carded categories, and gasprices, growth was 1.6x PCE.1.3x1.2x1.3x1.1x1.3x0.9x1.0x0.8x1.0x1.1x1.1x1.4x1.3x1.4x1.2x1.3x1.4x1.6x1.5x1.4x1.1x1.3x1.4x1.5x1.7x1.6x1Q222Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25Reported V & MA growth multiple of PCE (ex-LY, Easter)Adjusted V & MA growth multiple of PCESource: Company materials, Bureau of Economic Analysis,Jefferies. Reported growth multiple adjusts V/MA growth forLeap Year and Easter impact.Mix of PCE growth by category; traditionallycarded categories getting back closer tohistorical contributionDashed line is '16-'19 avg. mix fromtraditionally carded categories.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Jefferies On a Reported Basis, V & MA's US Volume Growth GapAbove PCE Contracted Modestly in 1QWe adjust V & MA's 1Q US volume growth for the timing impacts of Leap Year (we assume ~1pptheadwind) and Easter (we assume ~30bps headwind), making the comparison to PCE growthapples-to-apples, as PCE is seasonally adjusted (accounts for moving holidays).The spread between Visa and Mastercard's combined US volume growth and US PCE growth(a proxy for share gains from cash-to-card conversion) contracted modestly in 1Q.The spreadremains below 2015-2019 levels of ~2-3x, calling into question the degree to which the tailwind fromUS cash-to-card conversion can contribute to V & MA med-term growth algorithms.Exhibit 1 - On a reported basis, V & MA's US Volume growth vs. PCE contracted to a ~0.5ppt gap in 1Q.16.1%12.1%11.8%12.6%9.9%9.2%1Q222Q223Q22V & MA US Payment Volume Y/YSource: Company filings, Bureau of Economic Analysis, JefferiesExhibit 2 - Excluding the impact of Leap Year and Easter timing, the spread between V & MA's US volumegrowth (ex-LY, Easter) vs. PCE contracted ~20bps in 1Q.16.1%12.1%11.8%12.6%9.9%9.2%1Q222Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25V & MA US Payment Volume Y/Y (ex-LY, Easter)Source: Company filings, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Jefferies. Showing JEFe ex-LY, ex-Easter V/MA growth rates.V & MA's 1Q Reported Spread (ex-Leap Year, Easter) vs. PCE GrowthContracted Modestly in 1QPlease see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 8.7%9.7%5.6%6.0%4.9%6.3%5.6%5.7%7.9%6.3%7.7%7.8%6.1%5.9%5.9%5.0%5.3%5.3%5.7%5.6%4Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q241Q25US Total PCE Y/Y8.7%9.7%5.6%6.0%5.0%5.0%5.9%5.7%7.8%7.6%7.7%7.8%6.1%5.9%5.9%5.0%5.3%5.3%5.7%5.7%US Total PCE Y/Y We adjust V & MA's US volume growth for the timing impacts of Leap Year (~1ppt headwind) andEaster (we assume ~30bps headwind), making the comparison to PCE growth apples-to-apples, asPCE is seasonally adjusted (accounts for moving holidays).After adjusting for the impact of Leap Year and Easter timing on V & MA 1Q25 US volume growth,the spread between V & MA US volume growth and PCE growth contracted ~0.1x from 4Q.Exhibit 3 - V & MA's US volume growth (ex-Leap Year, Easter) as a multiple of USPCE growth contracted ~0.1x from 4Q.1.3x1.2x1.3x1.1x1Q222Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25V & MA US Payment Volume growth as a multiple of US PCE (ex-LY, Easter)Source: Company filings, Bureau of Economic Research, Jefferies. Multiple adjusts for Leap Year and Easterimpact on V/MA US volume growth.Please see important disclosure information on pages 9 - 14 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 1.3x0.9x1.0x0.8x1.0x1.1x1.1x1.4x1.3xExhibit 4 - Concern remains that the runway for further cash-to-card conversion islimited.2.5x2.7x2.1x201520162017V & MA US Volume as multiple of PCE growthSource: Company filings, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Jefferies Mix of PCE Growth Between Carded vs. Non-CardedCategories Reverting Back Closer to HistoricalAveragesExcess Growth Contribution from Non-Carded Categories StillSkewing PCE Growth Higher Than Normal...Based on our analysis of the underlying components within PCE, housing & utilities continueto contribute more to PCE growth than they have historically.Housing/utilities contributed ~19%of total PCE growth in 1Q25, above its average of ~15% from 2014-2019. The increased mix oftotal growth translates to a ~50bps growth tailwind to total PCE from housing/utilities vs historicallevels. While healthcare's mix of total growth was in-line with historical levels, the category's growthcontribution was ~30bps above historical levels. Meanwhile, goods, a traditionally carded categorycontributed ~22% of total PCE growth, below its average of ~26%.