电动革命：分化——软件正在重塑汽车行业，中国正蓄势待发

www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingATE.FPOCAP.FPODSY.FPOSAP.GROSAPOREY.IMMEDMSPXO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedREY.IM valuation is EV/EBIT (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSThe automotive industry’s transition to an electric future represents a significant revenue opportunity over the long term forEuropean software and services under our coverage, namely SAP, Dassault Systèmes, Capgemini, Alten, and Reply, as they arekey enablers for automakers in this transformation, and have substantial revenue exposure to the sector.However, the macroeconomic uncertainties over the short term in the automotive sector are likely to continue to weigh on servicesproviders, with software companies faring relatively better, in our view.•Among the services providers, Capgemini, Alten and Reply derive respectively c.8%, c.16% and c.10% of their revenuesfrom this sector. Since 2024, Capgemini and Alten have suffered a sharp decline in business with their auto customers, bothoutsourced R&D and traditional IT services. However, Reply has fared better, with sales likely to have increased thanks to itsspecific market positioning. We believe that growth prospects in this sector will remain muted in 2025-26, notably in Europe.•Among software providers, SAP and Dassault Systèmes generate c.7% and c.22%, respectively of their revenues fromautomotive customers. We estimate that SAP has continued to grow its revenue at a mid-to-high single digit rate since 2024in this sector, as its customers need to modernise their ERP platforms and supply chains, as part of the multi-year transitionto SAP’s Cloud ERP suite. While Dassault Systèmes probably saw its sales with automotive clients decline at a low single-digitrate in 2024, the group has recently signed several important contracts with Volkswagen, BMW, Volvo, JLR, and Mahindra &Mahindra.We reiterate our ratings and price targets for SAP (Outperform, PT €284/$324), Dassault Systèmes (Outperform, PT €48),Capgemini (Outperform, PT €214), Alten (Outperform, PT €116), and Reply (Market-Perform, PT €151).In this report, we mention multiple companies covered by our colleagues in Asia, Europe and the US.•Asian autos: BYD (O, PT HKD460/CNY420), Geely (O, HKD21), Greet Wall Motor (MP, HKD13.5), Nio (MP, $4.5/HKD35), SAIC(MP, CNY15), Xiaomi (O, HKD60), and Xpeng (MP, $19/HKD74) are covered by Eunice Lee; and Honda (MP, JPY1,250), Mazda(U, JPY650), Nissan (U, JPY250), and Toyota (MP, JPY2,600) by Masahiro Akita.•European autos: BMW (O, €92), Continental (MP, €64), Mercedes-Benz (MP, €57), Porsche (MP, €37), Renault (O, €65),Stellantis (MP, €10.48/$11.70), Volkswagen (MP, €90), and Volvo (U, SEK240) are covered by Daniel Roeska, StephenReitman, Steve Pereira Fernandes and Harry Martin.•US autos: Ford (U, $8.3), General Motors (U, $36), Polestar (U, $0.4), and Rivian (U, $7.05) are covered by Daniel Roeska.•Technology: Oracle (O, $207) and Microsoft (O, $520) are covered by Mark Moerdler; Nvidia (O, $185) by Stacy Rasgon;Alphabet (MP, $185) by Mark Shmulik; and Alibaba (O, $165/HKD161) by Robin Zhu.EUROPEAN TECHNOLOGY/SOFTWARE 2 Table Of ContentsFrom car manufacturer to software company...............................................................................................................................................................3Who is gaining ground in the digital automaker race? China. Who is struggling? Europe and Japan.........................................................5How can an automaker transform into a technology company?.............................................................................................................................8Where does the R&D money go?.................................................................................................................................................................................... 12Software-Defined Vehicle...................................................................................................................................................................................................16Battery Management............................................................................................................................................................................................................23Vehicle-to-Everything Communication.......................................................................................................................................................................... 26Over-The-Air software updates........................................................................................................................................................................................ 29Cybersecurity across the entire value chain.....................................................................................................