电动革命：分化——供应商能做些什么来帮助西方赶上东方？

www.bernsteinresearch.com BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLETickerRatingML.FPOPIRC.IMMCON.GRM5108.JP (Bridgestone)OFRVIA.FPMSTM.GROFR.FPOOPM.FPUEDMJPLO - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, NR - Not Rated, CS - Coverage SuspendedFRVIA.FP, OPM.FP estimate is Revenues (M); OPM.FP valuation is EV/EBIT (x);Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSWe think the tyremakers are the best way to invest in this theme, as they enable the EV transition by reducing rolling resistanceto increase EV’s range. EVs also typically use more premium tyres meaning it is a win-win situation, as EV growth also drivesmix shift for the tyremakers. We rate bothMichelinandBridgestone Outperform,and both are well placed to benefit from EVtailwinds. We ratePirelli Market-Perform- while the company will benefit from the same EV tailwinds, we remain cautious ongovernance risks.We rateContinental Market-Perform. While the tyre business will benefit from the same EV tailwinds, we have structuralconcerns about the Automotive business, whose margins are under structural pressure from the rising investment needed forthe EV transition and the move to SDVs.We rateStabilus Outperform.The group’s products are powertrain agnostic, and the company stands to benefit fromthe increased adoption of comfort features in vehicles. We rateValeo Outperform.The company continues to tackle fixedcosts and R&D spend, while its high-voltage business should benefit from increased electrification. We rateForvia Market-Perform.Consolidating the market with its acquisition of Hella was a defensive play in 2022, but has left the combined groupsaddled with a burdensome debt-load. This will be negatively viewed amidst LV production uncertainty. We rateOPmobilityUnderperform.OP’s highest profit contributor, fuel tanks, will face continued headwinds as electrification increases over time.EUROPEAN AUTOMOBILES & COMPONENTS 2 DETAILSWHAT ARE THE PAIN POINTS TO EV ADOPTION AND WHAT CAN SUPPLIERS DO TO HELP?Pain Points to EV AdoptionWe see 3 main pain points to EV adoption:•EV affordability and availability.One of the principal barriers to EV adoption is that there are not enough EVs at a mass-market price point on sale today. Suppliers’ role here is clear: cut production costs to offer cheaper components to OEMs. Aswell as this, looking holistically at the total cost of ownership, suppliers can also help by boosting their aftermarket offeringaround EV replacement parts to reduce the cost to replace them when they fail, and tyremakers can improve EV tyre wear tomake EV tyres last longer. There are also further factors related to EV affordability which are less relevant to suppliers suchas government incentives for purchase and improving EV residual values.•EV performance.Key factors are range, charging time and battery health long-term. On range, suppliers can have ameaningful impact by improving the performance of their e-motors, taking weight out of components and designing efficientthermal management systems. Thermal management systems, as well as battery management software, can also help toprotect battery health long-term. On charging time, thermal management systems are again key as fast charging generates alot of heat. Finally, tyremakers can improve range by reducing the rolling resistance of their tyres.•Charging infrastructure.While a major barrier to EV adoption, this is an area where suppliers can have limited impact.How does an EV differ from an ICE vehicle for component suppliers?The design of an EV differs fundamentally from a ICE vehicle. The powertrain and battery represent >50% of the cost of aBEV, while it is <25% in an ICE vehicle (Exhibit 1). BEV powertrains also have far fewer parts overall than an ICE vehicle. An ICEpowertrain may have >1000 components, while a BEV powertrain has only a few hundred. There have even been claims thatTesla only have 17-18 parts in their drivetrain.The main component differences are (Exhibit 2):•Propulsion related components: e-motors, inverters. Power electronics: DC/DC converters and on-board chargers.These are increasingly being combined into an eAxle, a system which combines the electric motor, power electronics andtransmission in a unit directly powering the vehicle’s axle.•Thermal management: Components which regulate both the interior temperature of the vehicle and the temperature of thebattery.•Battery management systems and software.•The battery itself.EUROPEAN AUTOMOBILES & COMPONENTS 3 EXHIBIT 1:The powertrain and battery represent >50% ofthe cost of a BEV, while it is <25%Others,17%Others,10%Interior/Exterior,33%Interior/Exterior,17%Powertrain,23%Powertrain,14%Chassis,11%Chassis,6%Body in white,16%Body in white,12%Battery pack,41%ICEBEVICE vs BEV Cost BreakdownSource: S&P, Bernstein analysisEXHIBIT 2:The major EV-specific components for auto suppliersSource: Borgwarner presentationEUROPEAN AUTOMOBILES & COMPONENTS WHAT IS THE SITUATION FOR SUPPLIERS?What challenges do supp