吉尔吉斯斯坦共和国：选定问题

KYRGYZ REPUBLICSELECTED ISSUESApprovedByMiddle East andCentral AsiaDepartmentPrepared ByNasir Rao, Anvar Muratkhanov,Nihal Haider,Jean van Houtte, Farid Talishli,Erkeaim Shambetova(allMCD),Natalie Manuilova,andAnh Dinh Minh Nguyen (allFAD).POTENTIAL OUTPUT IN THE KYRGYZREPUBLIC___________________________________4A. Introduction_________________________________________________________________________4B. Methodology and Results____________________________________________________________5C. Conclusion and Policy Recommendations___________________________________________9FIGURES1. Gross Capital Formation______________________________________________________________52. GDP Growth–Regional Comparison_________________________________________________53. GDP Growth__________________________________________________________________________54. Regional Trade and Remittances_____________________________________________________55. Potential Output (Total)______________________________________________________________76. Potential Output (Non-Gold)_________________________________________________________77A. Potential Output (Total)____________________________________________________________77B. Potential Output (Non-Gold)_______________________________________________________78. Output Gap Dynamics________________________________________________________________89. Output Gap vs Labor Indicators______________________________________________________8ANNEXI. Model Specifications________________________________________________________________10References____________________________________________________________________________15LABOR MARKET CHALLENGES AND POLICY REFORMS IN THE KYRGYZREPUBLIC____________________________________________________________________________17A.Importance of Labor Market Analysis______________________________________________17CONTENTS 2INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUNDB. Overview of the Labor Market in the Kyrgyz Republic______________________________________17C. Policies Affecting the Labor Market________________________________________________________23D. Conclusion and Policy Options_____________________________________________________________25FIGURES1. PopulationTree of the KyrgyzRepublic in2023____________________________________________182.Share ofYouth inWorkingAgePopulation, 2023__________________________________________183.Size ofPublicSector________________________________________________________________________194.Output perWorker in 2023_________________________________________________________________205.UnitLaborCosts perIndustry inthe Kyrgyz Republic______________________________________206.UnitLaborCosts in 2023:Cross-countryAnalysis__________________________________________207.Gender Gap in Labor Force Participation___________________________________________________218.Female Labor Force Participation in the Kyrgyz Republic___________________________________219.FormalEmployment byGender in 2023____________________________________________________2210.InformalEmployment byGender in 2023_________________________________________________2211.Gender Pay Gap in 2023__________________________________________________________________2212.Wages bySector in 2023__________________________________________________________________2213.LaborMarketRegulationIndicator________________________________________________________2314.Global Competitiveness Index____________________________________________________________2315. Public Education Expenditures in 2023____________________________________________________2416. Human Development Index, 2022_________________________________________________________24TABLES1.Employment structure______________________________________________________________________192.Unemployed Benefit Coverage_____________________________________________________________24References____________________________________________________________________________________27KYRGYZ REPUBLIC: FISCAL RISKS FROM STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES_________________29A. Introduction________________________________________________________________________________29B.Fiscal Risks: Aggregate Perspective_________________________________________________________30C.Fiscal Risks: Firm-Level Analysis____________________________________________________________32D.Conclusion and Recommendations________________________________________________________40FIGURES1.Sectoral Distribution_______________________________________________________________________292.Contingent Liabilities of SOEs______________________________________________________________303.Liabilities of large SOEs by sector__________________________________________________________304.Debt-to-Asset Ratio in 2023________________________________________________________________305.Total Stock of Government Guarantees____________________________________________________31 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND36. Total Liabilities_______________________________________________________