欢迎来到竞技场：中美技术竞争中的领先者、落后者及未来走向

Contents IntroductionThe intensifying technological competition between the United States and the People’s Republicof China (PRC) represents one of the most consequential dynamics shaping the 21st century. Thisrivalry encompasses critical sectors that define economic power, national security, and globalinfluence. Both nations are advancing rapidly across emerging technologies, with strategies thatreflect starkly contrasting priorities, governance structures, and resource allocations. Thisreport,Welcome to the Arena: Who’s Ahead, Who’s Behind, and What’s Next in the U.S.-ChinaTechnology Competition,aims to provide a comprehensive, data-driven examination of thisevolving landscape, building upon the foundation established in theSpecial Competitive StudiesProject’s (SCSP) 2022 gaps analysis.This document is designed to fulfill five key purposes:1.One-Stop Diagnostic Resource for Policymakers:Tailored for the incoming PresidentialAdministration,the report serves as a strategic guide,identifying opportunities,challenges, and insights to inform technology policy and decision-making.2.Analysis of How Nations Prioritize Critical Technologies:The report examines howvarious stakeholders within the U.S. innovation ecosystem prioritize key technologies,revealing strategic alignment and divergence across sectors.3.Update from SCSP’s 2022 Gaps Analysis:This report incorporates new data anddevelopments–across twelve strategically critical technology areas–reflectingsignificant changes in the technological and geopolitical landscape since 2022.4.Forecast Geopolitical and Technological Trajectories:By analyzing trends, investments,and strategic initiatives, this document surveys potential geopolitical wildcards andforecasts possible future trajectories of these key technologies and their implications forthe global competition.5.Simulate the Functions of a Theoretical U.S. Technology Competition Council:Byproviding a structured and holistic analysis, the report demonstrates what a dedicated1Methodology Note:In 2022, SCSP conducted a gap analysis (“Gaps 1.0”) of twelve technology areas that webelieved would drive the competition between the United States and China from 2025 to 2030. Now, three yearsafter our initial analysis, we thought it would be an opportune time to revisit our previous assessment and do acomprehensive update. These twelve tech areas are derivatives of a broader set of strategic sectors we judge to becentral to building national competitiveness (Mid-Decade Challenges to National Competitiveness): artificialintelligence, biotechnology, advanced compute and microelectronics, advanced networks, advanced manufacturing,and next-generation energy. We used a framework of analytic questions to select and examine these tech areasthrough three lenses:tech phenomena, competition factors with China, and the state of the U.S. innovationecosystem (Harnessing the New Geometry of Innovation). We assert that the evidence selected for these conclusionsshould be a mix of quantitative and qualitative metrics of actual fielded capabilities that differ for each technology,using secondary variables like publication trajectories as indirect proxies for understanding real positionaladvantages. P A G E21 P A G E3U.S. Technology Competition Council’s output might look like, emphasizing cross-sectorcollaboration and actionable assessments.2This report seeks to equip policymakers, industry leaders, and researchers with the state of playneeded to navigate the U.S.-China technology competition. By identifying areas of strength,vulnerability, and opportunity, it provides a roadmap to strengthen the United States’ position inthe global innovation ecosystem while ensuring long-term resilience and competitiveness. Thefollowing sections delve into each technology area, presenting a nuanced analysis of where theUnited States and China stand today, and where they may be heading in the years to come.Key Findings●China's Dominance in Key Infrastructure:China’s sprawling manufacturing industrialbase gives Beijing systemic advantages in capital-intensive sectors, such as advancedbatteriesand fifth-generation wireless networks(5G)infrastructure.Thanks tosignificantstate investments,control over critical supply chains,and scalablemanufacturing, China has daunting leads in these technology areas. Although the UnitedStates has made measurable progress in fielding some of these infrastructure-heavytechnologies,supply chain gaps and bureaucratic red tape ishinderingU.S.competitiveness.●U.S. Leadership in Emerging Technologies:The United States maintains leadership insectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing, and synthetic biology,driven by strong private-sector ecosystems, global collaboration, and innovation infoundationaltechnologies.However,China's centralized funding and focus oncommercialization are narrowing the gap in these areas.●Divergence in Prioritization:Over the past three years, some U.S. industry stakeholdershave