国家电网：巴克莱欧洲领导力会议的关键要点

Restricted - External First LookNG.L/NG/ LNEuropean UtilitiesPrice TargetPrice (23-May-25)Potential Upside/DownsideSource: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchEuropean UtilitiesDominic Nash+44 (0)20 3134 2364dominic.nash@barclays.comBarclays, UKPeter Crampton+44 (0)20 3555 0125peter.crampton2@barclays.comBarclays, UKJose Ruiz+44 (0)20 3134 3140jose.ruizfernandez@barclays.comBarclays, UKTemitope Sulaiman, CFA+44 (0)20 3134 3439temitope.sulaiman@barclays.comBarclays, UKLaura Marconi+44 (0)20 3555 0762laura.marconi@barclays.comBarclays, UK OVERWEIGHTPOSITIVEGBp 1250GBp 1091+14.6% °NG believes zonal pricing risks the pace of delivery.°°UK well placed to cope with Spain blackout issue. Inertia not an expected event for UK.°°Transmission component in a c.£1,800 energy bill is £23, rising to £44 with RIIO-T3.°US opportunities:°No one currently stepping away from net zero in US. However, NY will miss 2030 targets°and MS has challenges, but gas remains valuable long term.°Limited exposure totariffrisks as 90% of NG's US supply chain is domestically sourced.°Even if higher costs came through, the group is confident there aresufficientalternativesuppliers it could switch to.Grid rising to the challenge of delivering unprecedented scale°Delivering a large-scale transmission project can take around 10 years, of which usually°only 3 are for construction. Development and permitting take up most of the time, andmore regulatory streamlining is needed to accelerate the transition.°Offshoremore globally competitive than onshore. Massive £47bn group-wide HVDC and°converter framework in place. Still able to attract talent.We rate NG OW with a 1,250p PT:In our 15 May note 'Pettigrew the EPS', we increased our valuation to 1,250p and maintained anOW rating on the back of a 10% RCV CAGR and c.7% EPS growth out to 2029E.We value NG at a combined UK/US premium to RCV of 36% (March 2026). Exiting at a 30%premium to RCV in 2030 would lead to an equity IRR of 9.4%. •••• 2 Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Peter Crampton, Dominic Nash, Jose Ruiz, Temitope Sulaiman, CFA and Laura Marconi, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this researchreport accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of ourcompensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.Important Disclosures:Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects thelocal time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT.Availability of Disclosures:Where any companies are the subject of this research report, for current important disclosures regarding those companies please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072.The analysts responsible for preparing this research report have received compensation based upon various factors including the firm's total revenues,a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities, the profitability and revenues of the Markets business and the potential interest of thefirm's investing clients in research with respect to the asset class covered by the analyst.Research analysts employed outside the US byaffiliatesof Barclays Capital Inc. are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such non-US research analysts may not be associated persons of Barclays Capital Inc., which is a FINRA member, and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule2241 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst’s account.Analysts regularly conduct site visits to view the material operations of covered companies, but Barclays policy prohibits them from accepting paymentor reimbursement by any covered company of their travel expenses for such visits.Barclays Research Department produces various types of research including, but not limited to, fundamental analysis, equity-linked analysis,quantitative analysis, and trade ideas. Recommendations contained in one type of Barclays Research maydifferfrom those contained in other types ofBarclays Research, whether as a result ofdifferingtime horizons, methodologies, or otherwise.In order to access Barclays Statement regarding Research Dissemination Policies and Procedures, please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/RD.htm. In order to access Barclays Research Conflict Management Policy Statement, please refer to: https://publicresearch.barclays.com/S/CM.htm.Primary Stocks (Ticker, Date, Price)National Grid(NG.L,