炉边谈话、甚小口径终端（VSAT）、弗利内特（FNTN）、西班牙并购、TI

Restricted - External Emerging Markets TelecomsNEUTRALLatin America Telecom & MediaNEUTRALEuropean Telecom ServicesNEUTRALEuropean Telecom ServicesMaurice Patrick+44 (0)20 3134 3622maurice.patrick@barclays.comBarclays, UKMathieu Robilliard+44 (0)20 3134 3288mathieu.robilliard@barclays.comBBI, ParisGanesha Nagesha+91 (0)22 6175 1712ganesha.nagesha@barclays.comBarclays, UKMaxime Delaugerre+44 (0)20 3555 5672maxime.delaugerre@barclays.comBarclays, UK indicated that the weaker than expected trends vs consensus were largely due to phasing,notably on marketing spend that was front ended. However volumes in Pay TV and mobileARPU came in below our expectations and we cut estimates to reflect this. We remain withinguidance for 2025. As a result we cut our price target from €38 to €35.50 (-7%).Afterthe sharpfall of the stock on the day (-16% vs SXKP -0.1%), valuation looks more attractive: a re-acceleration of trends in the rest of the year would be key for our investment case to turn morebullish.Viasat - Mid-term outlook remains a question markWe update our estimates for Viasat to take into consideration the latest results/guidance.Compared to our estimates, revenues came in lower. Excludingone-offs,adj EBITDA was aboveour estimate but the 2026 EBITDA guidance has been lowered (flat vs 'growth' previously). Wecut our estimates to reflect the lower revenues vs our expectations and the lower adj. EBITDAguidance. From a valuation point of view, this isoffsetby our DCF roll-over and we maintain ourprice target at $10 p/s with an EW rating. We note however that asset disposal remains anupside and that the Ligado litigation is ongoing and, if successful, would also represent upsiderisk to our valuation.New Global Comps(26 May 2025)European incumbents trade on FY25 EV/EBITDA, EV/OpFCF and EFCF yield of 7x/13x/6%, vs.challengers on 7.8x/11.5x/8% and US Telcos trade on 8.7x/13.5x/9.7% respectively. Looking at(Bloomberg) consensus recommendations, in Europe the most preferred incumbent is DTE andthe least is Telia. For challengers the most preferred is Zegona. Please email if you’d like a copy.Zegona/Masorange – Considers selling lower stake in FibreCo (for now at least)According to news daily ‘Expansion’ reports, Zegona and Masorange are considering sellingonly around a 20% stake in the ‘FibreCo’ instead of the initial plan to sell a 40% stake. Thearticle suggests that the operators plan to sell another 20% stake when there are bettereconomic circumstances (and thus price). As per the article, given prices that potential investorsare willing to pay right now are lower than a few months ago, the operators are reducing theplanned stake sale. As Expansion reported on April 5, if it was initially considered that ‘FibreCo’could reach an enterprise value, including debt, of between €9bn to €10bn, now the valuationsare closer to the €7bn to €7.5bn range, andoffershave been considered "ridiculous" by theoperators, slightly above €6bn. Therefore, one of the strategies being considered would be tosell a smaller stake now - of 20% or less - and place the other 15% or 20% in the future, onceeconomic conditions have improved, and global uncertainty has subsided. As we detail in ourresearch Zegona Communications plc: Remain positive; Upside case £15/share (25 February2025), we assume a €6.6-8bn valuation for the pending MasOrange/Zegona JV, based uponc14-17x EV/EBITDA. We note the recent €4bn debt raise for the JV, that will likely present thelargest “cash in” event for the asset. Source: Expansion (27 May 2025)Telecom Italia - Hearing on concession fee and AGMThe hearing on the last appeal of the case opposing the Italian State and TI will take placetoday. In April 2024 TI won a legal case against the Italian government linked to licence fees paidin 1998. TI may still be entitled to receive the €1bn. We note that in the past Vodafone won asimilar case. We have included a 30% probability of TI winning the case in our PT. Separately TIBOD has announced the agenda of its AGM to be held on 24 June 2025. Besides the usual items,the BOD is proposing amendments to the articles of association notably on’ the scope of the 2 company’s purpose’. The press has reported that this could facilitate the strategic andcommercial cooperation between TIM and Poste, who is set to become the largest shareholderin TIM once it acquires a stake from Vivendi reaching c. 25% of the capital. Source: Company (23May 2025), Il Messagero (17 May 2025)3 Salt 1Q25 (not covered) – Operational momentum continuesSalt 1Q25 operating revenue increased +4.3% yoy to CHF246m and EBITDA up +2.5% to CHF144.4m. The company notes a “very competitive environment”, but still showed growth incustomers and service revenues. The company indicated that the recent price adjustmenteffectiveas of March has had only a limited impact on financials. Cash capex slightly declined toCHF 62.3m vs CHF 72.2m in 1Q24. FCF amounted to CHF 70.3m vs CHF 72.8m in 1Q24.Subscriber growth continued with