回放——可持续性与转型的宏观与政策的10个实用步骤

Equity ResearchMay 28, 2025Aniket Shah, PhD * | Head of Sust. &(212) 323-3976 | ashah14@jefferies.comCharles Boakye, CFA * | Sust. & Transition(212) 336-6649 | cboakye@jefferies.comCarina Elfving * | Sust. & Transition Strategy+1 (212) 336-7238 | celfving@jefferies.comMatthew Spring, CFA * | Sust. & Transition+1 (212) 738-5297 | mspring@jefferies.comYujin Kim * | Sust. & Transition Strategy+1 (212) 778-8314 | ykim4@jefferies.comLuke Sussams ^ | Sust. & Transition Strategist44 (0)20 7548 4404 | lsussams@jefferies.comGrace Elshafei ^ | Sust. & Transition Strategy+44 (0) 20 7029 8952 | gelshafei@jefferies.comJacqueline Murdock ^ | Sust. & Transition+44 (0)20 7548 4165 | jmurdock@jefferies.comAna Zotovic ‡ | Sust. & Transition Strategy+1 (416) 847 7399 | azotovic@jefferies.com Transition StrategyStrategistAssociateStrategy AssociateAssociateAssociateStrategy AssociateAssociate 6 & 7) Regulatory & Legal Policy:Deregulation (e.g., DOGE) has been a major focus of the newTrump administration (see here, here, here, here, and here) and is becoming a priority on a globalscale as well. With a recalibration by governments with regard to the extent to which they wouldlike to have regulations in place, this will have significant implications for the environment, climatechange, and the energy transition. In the US, for example, looking at the most expensive pieces ofregulation over the past 10 years shows that effectively all of them have to do with the environment.Not all deregulation will be bad though — some will make it easier for renewable energy projects toget built more quickly, which would positively impact the pace of the energy transition. With this inmind, it is important to understand how regulation and deregulation work and which agencies areresponsible for these processes. Further, we are seeing this spill over into the legal realm as well (seehere). The extent to which the legal system enables/hinders executive power will have implicationsfor the risk premiums investors place on jurisdictional assets.8) Financial Policy:The sustainability community pays the most attention to financial policy,particularly with regard to sustainable finance taxonomies, which define the activities deemed tobe green- or transition-aligned in order for companies to report against those taxonomies and forinvestors to make decisions based off of that data. Perhaps there has been an over-focus by thecommunity on financial policy when it comes to climate change, although it remains an importantpart of the story — how governments are trying to steer the energy transition and sustainability morebroadly via financial policies matters.9) Grid & Transmission Policy:Understanding how a power project goes from conceptualization toactually producing power is absolutely critical in studying the energy system. To do this, you haveto understand how grids work and how transmission policies are being put into place so that powerprojects can be connected into the larger grid systems.10) Sub-National Government Policy:Policy analysis needs to happen not just at the federal level,but also at the state and local levels. In the US power system, the most important policies andregulations that have to do with energy transition are being done here. Siting projects, permitting,NIMBYism, etc. all happen at these more micro levels.Resources:1.Economic Policy Uncertainty Index — see point 1 above2.Global Trade Alert — see point 2 above3.IEA Energy Technology RD&D Budgets Data Explorer — see point 2 above4.ASPI Critical Technology Tracker — see point 2 above5.Nature's Research Leaders: Leading Academic Institutions — see point 2 above6.BNEF — see point 2 above7.World Bank Carbon Pricing Dashboard — see point 3 above8.Regulation Rodeo — see point 6 & 7 above9.Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory "Queued Up" report — see point 9 abovePlease see important disclosure information on pages 26 - 31 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Macro, Policy and the EnergyTransition: 10 Practical Steps forBetter OutcomesMAY 2025Aniket ShahGlobal Head of Sustainability, Transition & Washington Strategy+1 (212) 323-3976ashah14@jefferies.com 2) Policy uncertainty has a large dispersion across countries.0200400600800100012001400German EPUUS EPUJapan EPUChina EPUEPU is Structurally Higher in Several Economies Today 3) Industrial policy is taking off in recent years.SOURCE: IMF, JefferiesNumber of Industrial Policy Measures Implemented in 2023 4) Trillion-dollar industrial policies around climate change are currentlybeing overlooked (e.g., China).SOURCE: UNDC, Jefferies 5) Trillion-dollar industrial policies around climate change are currentlybeing overlooked (e.g., Japan).SOURCE: JefferiesBIDS ACCEPTED(BILLION YEN)COMPETITIVE BIDS(BILLION YEN)ISSUE DATESECURITY799.52321.22/15/202410-Year Climate Transition799.82714.52/28/20245-Year Climate Transition349.61100.75/29/202410-Year Climate Transition349.6141