天空中发生了什么：全球航班同比增长4%，目前比2019年水平低1%

Sheila Kahyaoglu * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 336-7216 | sheila.kahyaoglu@jefferies.comGreg Konrad, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 284-2391 | gkonrad@jefferies.comKyle Wenclawiak * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-7671 | kwenclawiak@jefferies.comConor Walters * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 323-3395 | cwalters@jefferies.com What's Up in the Skies - Jefferies Airline CapacityAnalyzer•1) Most Interesting Item - US Flight/ASM Growth Up 4%/3% Y-o-Y, Respectively, Improvingfrom May Rates•2) Weekly Summary - Weekly Flights Up 4% Y-o-Y to 1% Below 2019 Levels•3) High-Level Summary - Monthly Capacity for June Expected to Be In-Line with 2019•4) Regional Schedule Analysis and Trends by Country and Location•5) Cargo Analysis - Cargo Flights Up 43% vs. 20191) Most Interesting Item - US Flight/ASM Growth Up4%/3% Y-o-Y, Respectively, Improving from May RatesWith US carriers starting to lower guidance tied to short-term consumer softness in the domesticmarket, we are watching the cadence for capacity additions monthly compared to 2024 levels. TheConference Board'sConsumer Confidence Indexrose 12.3pts in May, from 85.7 in April to 98.0 thismonth, well ahead of preliminary expectations for a 1pt decline in May. ThePresent Situation Indexrose 4.8pts to 135.9, while theExpectations Indexgrew a robust 17.4pts to 72.8, still below the 80threshold, suggesting a recession is anticipated. Looking ahead to June, current schedules have totalUS flights rising about 4% y-o-y, improved from the 3% increase in May and flat vs. +4% in Apr.Exhibit 3 - US Monthly Flights - June Tracking +3% Y-o-Y, Improving Versus May +3%.803,4340100,000200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000700,000800,000900,000Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24Apr-24May-24Jun-24Jul-24Aug-24Sep-24Oct-24Nov-24Dec-24Jan-25Feb-25Mar-25Apr-25May-25Total FlightsFlightsY-o-Y ChangeSource: Cirium® Hosted Service, JefferiesOn an ASM basis, June schedules grow 3% y-o-y, flat from the growth seen in May +3% and slightlybelow April +4%.Please see important disclosure information on pages 29 - 33 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 4%0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%9%Jun-25 Exhibit 4 - US Monthly ASMs - June Tracking +3% Y-o-Y, Flat From May +3%.020,00040,00060,00080,000100,000120,000140,000160,000Mar-23Apr-23May-23Total ASMs (MMs)Source: Cirium® Hosted Service, Jefferies2) Weekly Summary - Weekly Flights Up 4% Y-o-Y to1% Below 2019 LevelsWe provide an in-depth summary of each region below, giving us further granularity into areas wherewe are seeing inflections higher, as well as continued weakness in each region. Global scheduledflights are 1% below 2019 in the most recent week, with a 4% y-o-y increase. This can be broken outinto global domestic flights down 3% vs 2019 and international flights +2% vs 2019.Exhibit 5 - In-Depth Capacity Percent Change Breakdown by Region.GlobalW-o-WGlobal Total2%Global Domestic2%Global International2%Global Intracontinental2%Global Intercontinental3%AfricaW-o-WAfrica Total3%Africa Intracontinental4%Africa Intercontinental2%South Africa3%Egypt3%Morocco1%EuropeW-o-WEurope Total4%Europe Intracontinental4%Europe Intercontinental4%United Kingdom1%Spain1%Germany4%France3%Russian Federation7%Italy3%Turkiye7%Netherlands0%Switzerland2%Portugal4%Source: Cirium® Hosted Service, JefferiesIn aggregate,What's Up in the Skiescaptured 745,193 flights for the week of June 2, which weestimate constitutes ~98% of global flights. The survey is based on Cirium Diio data, which providesworldwide schedule data updated weekly.Weekly flights are up 4% y-o-y and 1% below 2019 levels. On a regional basis, the weakest marketsareCentral America(down 16% from 2019),North America(-4%), andEurope(-3%). The strongestmarkets arethe Middle East(+6%) andAfrica(+9%).Please see important disclosure information on pages 29 - 33 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. In-Depth Summary of Capacity Percent ChangesM-o-MY-o-Yv. 2019AsiaW-o-WM-o-MY-o-Yv. 20192%4%-1%Asia Total2%0%6%3%2%3%-3%Asia Intracontinental2%0%5%2%4%5%2%Asia Intercontinental3%4%6%14%2%3%-3%China Total1%-2%4%10%4%6%12%China Domestic2%-2%3%13%China International1%-2%17%-17%M-o-MY-o-Yv. 2019India0%2%8%17%3%6%9%Japan0%-1%4%2%2%4%2%Indonesia2%1%-1%-31%5%11%33%Thailand2%-6%5%-17%0%3%-12%Malaysia2%4%14%-15%6%15%43%South Korea1%0%2%0%-1%6%32%Vietnam5%5%14%-3%Philippines-2%-2%3%-2%M-o-MY-o-Yv. 2019Taiwan0%1%15%-7%6%3%-3%Singapore2%1%5%-2%6%3%-5%Hong Kong (SAR)1%-3%11%-16%5%7%14%Myanmar-4%-8%3%-61%5%1%-8%Kazakhstan14%20%24%33%3%4%9%3%5%-18%Middle EastW-o-WM-o-MY-o-Yv. 20195%1%-13%Middle East Total2%3%5%6%11%-3%-7%ME Intracontinental0%2%3%2%5%1%6%ME Intercontinental3%3%6%10%12%8%18%Saudi Arabia-2%3%5%12%1%2%-3%United Arab Emirates3%1%8%29%1%1%-7%Iran-1%3%-1%-13%5%6%16%Qatar5%5%1%21% Exhibit 6 - Weekly Flights by Region - Flights Up 4% Y-o-Y Led by the Middle East & Africa