Jones Lang LaSalle Inc (JLL) 股票研究报告

1Q26E1Q26E 2026E2027E9,798.710,610.211,476.59,838.910,501.01,588.61,734.719.7622.09-30.0%-20.0%-10.0%0.0%10.0%20.0%30.0%40.0%50.0%3Q26EExhibit 2 - Quarterly Capital Markets Fee Revenues(in millions $).$0.0$100.0$200.0$300.0$400.0$500.0$600.0$700.0$800.0$900.0$1,000.01Q21A3Q21A1Q22A3Q22A1Q23A3Q23A1Q24A3Q24A1Q25A3Q25E1Q26E3Q26ECapital Markets Fee RevsYoY GrowthSource: Jefferies, Company Materials0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%3Q26EExhibit 4 - Quarterly Adjusted EBITDA & EBITDAMargin.$0.0$100.0$200.0$300.0$400.0$500.0$600.0$700.01Q21A3Q21A1Q22A3Q22A1Q23A3Q23A1Q24A3Q24A1Q25A3Q25E1Q26E3Q26EAdj. EBITDAMarginSource: Jefferies, Company Materials 2028E1,901.524.87-60.0%-40.0%-20.0%0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%0.0%2.0%4.0%6.0%8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%18.0%20.0% - Peter Abramowitz * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7241 | pabramowitz@jefferies.comJonathan Petersen * | Equity Analyst(212) 284-1705 | jpetersen@jefferies.comAhmed Mehri * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8456 | amehri@jefferies.com The Long View: Jones Lang LaSalleInvestment Thesis / Where We Differ•JLL is the second-largest company in the commercial real estate servicesspace, with ~36% of fee revenues coming from resilient business lines,making it the most cyclical company among peers.•We believe JLL is best positioned to benefit from a recovery in capitalmarkets and leasing in '25, given its higher exposure to cyclical businesslines such as markets advisory (40% of '23 fee revs) and capital markets(24% of '23 fee revs).•As a result, our FY25 EPS estimates are ahead of the Street.Base Case,$264, +19%•Adjusted EBITDA margin expands to the mid-teens in FY25•Fee revenues growth in double digits Y/Y in '25•PT is based on a multiple blend of our '25 adjEBITDA and adj EPS estimatesSustainability MattersTop Material Issues:(1) Energy Managementis a top ESG issue in the real estate space, given the scaleof its footprint on the planet. Efficient buildings tend to attract higher levels of institutional investment/tenant interest, which drives valuation/rent higher, and therefore fee revenues for brokerage activities.2)Transparency & Management of Conflict of Interest:Services such as appraisals require a high levelof trust between parties, as such services come with a particularly high risk of conflicts of interest. Tomanage these risks, companies must ensure its agents all have uniform training, understanding, andoversight to ensure client/brand trust.CompanyTargets:(1)JLL has committed to net-zero carbon emissions by 2040.(2)Femalerepresentation in most senior roles to reach 40% by 2025.Qs to Mgmt:(1)What response from existing/potential tenants have you seen from your commitmentto ESG initiatives? Do you expect incremental demand, and from what types of tenants?(2)How do youbalance your ESG goals with your financial goals?ESG Sector Deep Dive: REITPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$304, +37%•Adjusted EBITDA margin expands to highteens, driven by better-than-expected recoveryin higher-margin business lines•HDD Y/Y growth in fee revenues•PT applies a higher blended multiple to higherEBITDA/EPS estimates Risk/Reward - 12 Month View32030028026024022020018016014012020252024Downside Scenario,$177, -20%•Adjusted EBITDA margin declines Y/Y, drivenbyinflationary pressures and weakeningfundamentals in higher-margin business lines•Flat Y/Y growth in fee revenues•PT applies a lower blended multiple to lowerEBITDA/EPS estimatesCatalysts•Stronger/weaker-than-expectedcapital market transactions•Stronger/weaker job growth impacts officeleasing revenues•Announcement of a large new outsourcingcontract•Sharp fluctuation in foreign currency impactsbottom line recoveryin2 Exhibit 5 - JLL Earnings Model.Income Statement ($ in millions)Total RevenueTotal Gross Contract CostsTotal Fee RevenueYoY Growth in Net RevenuesCompensation & BenefitsOperating, Admin & OtherDepreciationOther ExpenseTotal ExpenseAdj EBITDA - Markets AdvisoryAdj EBITDA - Capital MarketsAdj EBITDA - Work DynamicsAdj EBITDA - JLL TechnologiesAdj EBITDA - LaSalleAdjusted EBITDA - TotalAdjusted EBITDA MarginInterest ExpenseTax ExpenseNet Income - GAAPAdjustementsNet Income - AdjustedShare CountEPS - GAAPAdjusted EPSBalance Sheet ($ in millions)CashOther AssetsTotal AssetsTotal DebtOther LiabilitiesTotal LiabilitiesMinority InterestEquityTotal Liabilities and EquitySource: Jefferies Estimates, Company MaterialsExhibit 6 - JLL Valuation.$M, except per share dataAdj EBITDAAdj EPSTarget MultiplesEV/EBITDAP/EValueEnterprise ValueNet DebtEquity ValueEquity Value/ShareShares OutstandingEV/EBITDAP/EAverage PTImplied % ReturnSource: Jefferies Estimates, Company Materials, FactSetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 4 - 9 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionJones Lang LaSalleJones L