意大利银行-仍在交付成果

Marco Nicolai, CFA * | Equity Analyst+39 02 3601 1946 | mnicolai@jefferies.comJoseph Dickerson * | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8309 | jdickerson@jefferies.com.Source: Jefferies, Factset Summary of ChangesCompanyIntesa SanpaoloISP IMPreviousUniCreditUCG IMPreviousBanco BPMBAMI IMPreviousBPERBPE IMPreviousBanca Popolare di SondrioBPSO IMPrevious^Prior trading day's closing price unless otherwise noted.Please see important disclosure information on pages 33 - 39 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. RatingPrice^BUY€4.83BUY€56.18HOLD€9.82BUY€7.70HOLD€11.70 Jefferies ValuationExhibit 2 - Italian Financials - Jefferies valuation table.TickerMkt Cap€bnISP IM84.6UCG IM86.6BAMI IM14.8BPE IM10.9BPSO IM5.3Banks averageFBK IM11.4BMED IM11.0BGN IM6.1Wealth managers averagePST IM24.4Source: Jefferies, BloombergPrices as of 23 MayExhibit 3 - Euro Banks - RoTE vs P/TNAV (on Visible Alpha consensus).GLEABNDBKUNI0.4x0.6x0.8x1.0x1.2x1.4x1.6x8%9%P/TBV '26Source: Jefferies, Visble Alpha, FactsetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 33 - 39 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 10% Sector valuationP/TBV valuation at 1.2x for Italian traditional banks (ISP, UCG, BAMI, BPE, BPSO and CE in ouraverage) is now well above (c.30%) historical average. However we are not overly concerned by thisas profitability is well above the past as shown in Exhibit 9, and we believe it is sustainable (Exhibit10).Exhibit 5 - P/TBV (consensus estimates).0.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.8Sep-08Sep-10Sep-12Traditional banks average (ISP,UCG,BAMI,BPE,CE,BPSO)Longtermaverage 0,9xSource: Jefferies, FactsetMore importantly, in our view, P/E ratios are still below historical levels, hence the industry doesn'tscreen as overly expensive. Sector PE as of 3 Mar at 8.9x was 7% below the long-term average (since2005) P/E of 9.6x, as shown below.Exhibit 7 - P/E two years forward (consensus estimates).2.04.06.08.010.012.014.016.018.0Jan-05Jan-07Jan-09Source: Jefferies, FactsetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 33 - 39 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Jan-11 Sep-14Sep-16Sep-18Sep-20Sep-22Sep-24CurrentP/TBV 1,2xExhibit 6 - Current vs Historical (since 2005) P/TBV.0.70.81.11.164%36%-0.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0BAMIBPEAVGSource: Jefferies, FactsetJan-13Jan-15Jan-17Jan-19Jan-21Jan-23Jan-25Traditional banks average (ISP,UCG,BAMI,BPE,CE,BPSO)Longtermaverage 9,6xCurrentPE8,9xExhibit 8 - Italian financials P/E FY2 vs historical average & JEFe (since 2005).9.08.58.37.7-8%-9%(1.0)1.03.05.07.09.011.013.015.0BAMIBPEAVGSource: Jefferies, Company data RoTE, EPS and TNAV projectionsFor the group of banks NII will be a headwind compared to 2024 levels; however, terminal ratesaround the 1.8% that we embed in our numbers are supportive of a solid profitability for the sector,which we expect to move from an average of 15.2% in 2024 (ISP, UCG, BAMI, BPE, BPSO average)to 16.1% in 2027 (Exhibit 9). As shown in Exhibit 10, positives in the P&L are expected to morethan offset negatives (i.e., 160bps headwind from NII and loan loss provisions normalization & opexgrowth compares to 320bps of positive P&L elements) while TNAV growth reduces RoTE by 0.6%,which is hardly a negative for investors as TNAV growth should be remunerated by the market.•We expect commission incometo increase RoTE by +200bps between 2024 and 2027, morethan offsetting the decrease in NII. This is driven by market fees, with higher AuM balancessupporting this type of income, which we have seen already from 1Q25. Banking fees shouldpick up in the latter part of the year, helped by a projected improvement in loan growth trends.•Cost control:We expect costs trajectory to have a small negative impact on RoTE (-10bps),thanks to headcount reductions offsetting growth in other cost areas.•Asset quality metrics:We project a small deterioration in the CoR from record low levels, whichexplains -40bps in RoTE between 2024 and 2027.•Other elements will have a positive impact on RoTE between 2024 and 2027, adding 120bps.These include the dropout of banking funds contributions and the reduction in restructuringcosts that banks booked in 2024.All considered, we project 9% EPS CAGR between 2024 and 2027 at UCG, 7% at ISP, followed byBAMI (+5%), as shown in Exhibit 11. TNAV per share is projected to grow at a CAGR between -3% atBAMI and +5% at UCG. BAMI numbers are impacted by the acquisition of Anima.Exhibit 9 - Italian Banks - RoTE evolution.6.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%201820192020ISPUCGSource: Jefferies, Company dataExhibit 11 - EPS CAGR - 2024-2027.-3%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%BPSOSource: Jefferies, Company dataPlease see important disclosure information on pages 33 - 39 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 15.2%20