C&C集团2025财年业绩：夏天来了

FY25 results: Summer is coming C&C Group’s FY25 results were broadly in line withexpectations. Sales were resilient, aided by improveddistribution and brand execution. But we trim profitabilitydue to rising input costs. CCR.L/CCR LNOVERWEIGHTUnchanged European ConsumerStaplesNEUTRALUnchanged C&C Group reported FY25 results this morning. Following the pre-close announcementearlier this year, sales and EBITDA came in in-line with expectations. Sales came in at€1,665.5m (cons: €1,664.2m, Barc: €1,672.5m) with EBIT at €77.1m (cons: €77.1m, Barc:€77.2m) with the company having guided to a range of €76-78m. However, with a new CEOin place, an improvement in distribution, restoration of operations following the issues in2024, together with early signs of good weather we hold onto our slightly ahead ofconsensus top line estimates, although we trim profitability due to higher COGSheadwinds. Price TargetGBp 180Unchanged Share gains impacted by weaker weather:The story of the key brands of Tennent’s andBulmers in Scotland and Ireland respectively are similar. Both have taken share in theirrespective categories as a result of improved execution and strong marketing. However, theweaker summer weather in both countries caused volume losses, which was amplified by anexodus of Scottish football fans during the 2024 European Football tournament. With improvedweather so far in the UK this year and no football, there is potential for an improvedperformance this year. Magners in the UK is also being revitalised following C&C takingdistribution back from ABI at the start of 2025. This has resulted in increased investment in thebrand to drive further awareness and should also benefit from the improved weather. Price PerformanceExchange-LSE52 Week rangeGBP 1.76-1.15 Distribution seeing improved profitability:Following the ERP disruption in FY24, thedistribution business has seen a doubling of profits this year. Whilst margins are still below the>3.5% target, 2.3% is more than 2x last year as customer numbers increased 8% and share gainshave increased by 1.3%. The ERP issues are largely behind the company, and service monitoringhas increased as well as showing increased service levels over the past year. We expect acontinued improvement as service levels continue to increase to make a steady progresstowards the margin target in FY26. Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive charting COGS headwinds increasing:FY25 was a relatively benign COGS environment, however this isset to return to modest inflation as manufacturing costs such as aluminium and glass haveincreased recently. The only respite is sugar, which has seen downward pressure. We thereforetemper our Branded margins somewhat to reflect this increased pressure. European Consumer Staples Laurence Whyatt+44 (0)20 7773 5324laurence.whyatt@barclays.comBarclays, UK Ashutosh Jain+91 (0)22 6175 1452ashutosh.jain@barclays.comBarclays, UK Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 6.Completed: 27-May-25, 19:08 GMTReleased: 28-May-25, 06:10 GMTRestricted - External Forecasts and TP:We update our forecasts following the results, with limited top line changesand a slight decrease in margins following increased COGS pressures. However, we notice weremain ahead of consensus at EBIT. Our EPS forecasts come down somewhat due to increasedcorporate tax rates. Given the change of analyst, we move our valuation methodology to DCFbut using a WACC of 9% and TGR of 1.0% we calculate an unchanged TP of €180. C&C Group in charts FIGURE 1. C&C Group sales split FY24 Source: Company filings, Barclays Research FIGURE 5. C&C Group’s EPS and EPS growth (%) Source: Company filings, Barclays Research estimates Barclays | C&C Group Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Ashutosh Jain and Laurence Whyatt, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly orindirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). Allauthors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publicatio