日产汽车公司盈利公布后：即将发行债券？

Post earnings: Issuance on thehorizon? We expect Nissan to refinance its upcoming debt maturities.Potential supply could provide better entry points, and buytime for its turnaround plan. Not out of the woods, we expectratings to remain on Negative outlooks. Asia Credit Research Roanna Chau+852 2903 2625roanna.chau@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Hong Kong US Credit StrategyAndrew Johnson, CFA+1 212 526 9716andrew.johnson3@barclays.comBCI, US Barclays ratings:Reiterate Market Weight rating on $ NSANY 2% '26s, upgrade our ratings on $NSANY 6.95% '26s and $ NSANY 1.85% '26s to Market Weight from Underweight. ReiterateUnderweight ratings on the rest of the $ curve. Upgrade our ratings on the € NSANY 2.652% '26sand € NSANY 3.201% '28's to Market Weight from Underweight. Potential supply from NSANY:If any, will likely fall into the 5-10 year tenor bucket, in ouropinion, and come with reasonable new issue concession to reflect Nissan's increased headlinerisk and uncertain path to recovery. We think this would reprice the rest of the$curve wider(apart from the 2026 maturities), and provide better entry points. US HY technicals:Strong demand for all-in-yields, as issuance has been very light y-t-d. However, dynamics for NSANY$bonds will depend on a few factors: 1) size and pricing ofpotential supply, and 2) whether or not Ford Motor (Ba1 Stable/ BBB- Negative/ BBB- Stable)will return to the HY index anytime soon. Nissan's debt and liquidity:Within FY25, Nissan faces USD1.5bn, JPY221bn, and EUR750mn ofbond maturities. We expect Nissan's funds from operations, cash on hand and committed creditfacilities with banks to fully cover its liquidity needs over the next 12 months. Nonetheless, weexpect Nissan to refinance its debt maturities. Rating outlook:Uncertainty around automotive profit and margin, along with the executionrisks that come with the company's restructuring program, will continue to underpin thecompany's Negative outlook at all three rating agencies, in our view. In the event that Nissansuccessfully demonstrates its funding capability by tapping the markets, we believe the timelinefor possible downgrades could be extended, allowing the automaker more time to address itsrestructuringeffortsin hopes to restore profitability and free cash flow in the automotivesegment. Relative value Within FY25, Nissan faces USD1.5bn, JPY221bn, and EUR750mn of bond maturities. We expectNissan's funds from operations, cash on hand and committed credit facilities with banks to fully Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 10.Completed: 29-May-25, 03:28 GMTReleased: 29-May-25, 03:33 GMTRestricted - External cover its liquidity needs over the next 12 months (see Figure 7 and Figure 9). Nonetheless, weexpect Nissan to refinance its debt maturities. With that, and as the company focuses onrestructuringeffortsand also liquidity/refinancing in the coming months (see Figure 12 forrecent headlines), we expect any positive progress to be supportive of the front-end of the$curve. Supply, if any, will likely fall into the 5-10 year tenor bucket, in our opinion, and comewith reasonable new issue concession to reflect Nissan's increased headline risk and uncertainpath to recovery. We think this would reprice the rest of the$curve wider, and provide betterentry points. We note that technicals in the US HY market have been fairly strong, with robust demand for all-in-yields, as issuance has been very light y-t-d (see US Credit Alpha: Overview and US Focus - USCredit: Revising our forecast tighter for more details). However, we think that dynamics forNSANY$bonds will depend on a few factors: 1) size and pricing of potential supply, and 2)whether or not Ford Motor (Ba1 Stable/ BBB- Negative/ BBB- Stable) will return to the HY indexanytime soon. Recall that the US HY autos index shrank massively following the upgrade of Fordto investment grade in October of 2023, therefore, the lack of HY autos paper proved supportivefor NSANY bonds when they entered the index (see Nissan Motor Co Ltd: Welcome (back) to theHY Index for more details). $ bonds:ReiterateMarket Weighton$ NSANY 2% '26s, upgrade our ratings on$NSANY 6.95% '26s and $ NSANY 1.85% '26s to Market Weight from Underweight. ReiterateUnderweighton therest of the $ curveas bondsofferrelatively unattractive risk/reward bothfundamentally and from a relative valuation perspective, versus its peers (see Figure 5). € bonds:NSANY € bonds (NSANY 2.652% '26s and 3.201% '28's) are now trading more in linewith EUR peers like Valeo