雷诺汽车公司：2025年第一季度更新及日产预警

Restricted - External RENA.PA/RNO FPOVERWEIGHTUnchangedEuropean Autos & AutoPartsNEGATIVEUnchangedPrice TargetEUR 55.00UnchangedPrice (14-May-25)EUR 48.80Potential Upside/Downside+12.7%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays ResearchMarket Cap (EUR mn)14431Shares Outstanding (mn)295.72Free Float (%)68.1952 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)1.0Dividend Yield (%)4.51Return on Equity TTM (%)2.50Current BVPS (EUR)102.49Source: BloombergPrice PerformanceExchange-PA52 Week rangeEUR 54.54-35.59Source: IDCLink to Barclays Live for interactive chartingEuropean Autos & Auto PartsHenning Cosman+44 (0)20 3134 3106henning.cosman@barclays.comBarclays, UKArya Ghassemieh+44 (0)20 7773 3442arya.ghassemieh@barclays.comBarclays, UKErwann Dagorne+33 (0)1 4458 3664erwann.dagorne@barclays.comBBI, Paris In summary, Q1'25 results were a bit better than buy-side investors had feared at the timeleading up to the results, in our view.Update post Q1'25 Nissan warning/€2.2bn at equity loss:On 13 May RNO reported itsofficialNissan at-equity result for Q1'25/H1'25 from Nissan's Q4 2024 (March-end, hence falling intoRNO's Q1'25). The €2.2bn loss is consolidated below RNO's EBIT and as such does notaffecttheEBIT guidance or the FCF, but doesaffectthe reported net income/EPS and by extension –hypothetically – RNO's dividend. Historically, and indeed in 2023 and 2024, RNO have adjustednon-cash capital losses associated with partial sales of its stake in Nissan as well as non-cashimpairments on the book value of its Nissan stake, but RNO has not adjusted out the at-equityresult itself. Nevertheless, in this update we assume that RNO will at least adjust out 70% of the€2.2bn at-equity loss (similar ratio as non-cash impairment within Nissan's accounts) for thepurpose of the 2025 dividend and apply a 30% payout ratio to this adjusted net income,equivalent to a DPS of €2.26 (vs 21.7% payout ratio and €2.20 DPS in 2024a and vs a 35% payoutratio target once RNO reaches an investment grade rating).Changes to estimates / BARCe vs. consensus:We perform a comprehensive model updatefollowing RNO's Q1 results, changing our 2025-27e EBIT forecasts by -4%/0%/+7% andremaining on average 16% above the latest company consensus. At the EBIT level the keychange to our 2025 earnings forecast is based on price-mix-enrichment bucket, where we havelowered our assumptions to reflect RNO’s latest commentary on CO2 compliance costs. Whilstwe had previously modelled for the easing of the EU CO2 regulation (now formally approved bythe EU as of last week to change to "bank and borrow" scheme with 2025-27 averagecompliance rather than in 2025 alone) to provide a c100bpsupliftto RNO’s guidance of ≥7%, wenow assume a lower degree of mix upside to the current guide (which we view as more alignedwith RNO's communication; eg "mix upside from intra-model arbitrage opportunities in H2'25").Specifically, on the Q1 call RNO management confirmed that as of April they were still deliveringthe mix they had planned at the start of the year (i.e. before an easing of CO2 regulation) andthat EV demand remained strong, although also acknowledging that an easing of the CO2regulation could allow for some of the richer mix/fewer BEVs in favor of higher-margin models inthe remainder of the year. Overall, we now model a €511m net price-mix-cost impact for FY25and forecast a FY25 Group Operating margin of €4,400m/7.6%. “Below the line”, we cut ourestimates very significantly to reflect a lower at-equity result from Nissan, as discussed above.Beyond 2025e, we remain constructive based on opportunities from 1) growing Dacia earnings,Horse synergies, Ampere volume / cost savings (and to a lesser extent Alpine improvements), aswell as 2) growing markets outside of Europe, namely with respect to South Korea, India, LatinAmerica and North Africa. Therefore, we continue to see solid earnings momentum, withearnings growing at a 11% CAGR in 2025-28e. The main modelling challenge remains theforecasting of RNO's price-mix-enrichment vs cost savings (namely from a/ increasing the shareof higher-margin new generation models and b/ Horse synergies). H1'25 results will giveimportant clues for the run-rate for the full year in this regard, as well as the seasonality withH2>H1 EBIT margin.Updated investment case (OW; PT €55.0):We continue to see strong company-specific factorsand near-term earnings resilience as key positives for RNO. And while RNO shares haveunderperformed the sector in the recent"tariffde-escalation squeeze" (which in isolation makesense as RNO istariffagnostic), we think it should also exhibit greater resilience to an eventualsector-wide multiple de-rating from very elevated levels (also see our note Car Wars XIII from 12May). We have consistently liked RNO's management team, its recent track record of strongexecution, and its substantially improved product portfolio, which has already started tomaterialise in robust volume-price-mix-cost improvements that should continue in 2025e. And 2 indeed, RNO remains