翠丰集团（KGF）2025/26年第一季度模型更新

1Q25/26 model update We increase our FY25/26 PBT estimate by £5m to £525m (vsBBG cons £522m), assuming half of the 1Q25/26 beat waspulled-forward demand from 2Q25/26. Reiterate UW, PT280p. KGF.L/KGF LNUNDERWEIGHTUnchanged European General RetailNEUTRALUnchanged We update our model following Kingfisher's 1Q25/26 trading statement. LFL sales were betterthan we expected in the UK and France, driven primarily by weather-sensitive seasonalcategories, but behind our expectations in Poland, with the company citing geopolitical factorsthat are weighing on sentiment. We suspect the strong outcome partly reflects pulled-forwarddemand from 2Q25/26 - especially given seasonal products are typically 'once-a-season'purchases (e.g., barbecues). Indeed, Kingfisher reiterated its relatively wide PBT guidance range(c.£480m to £540m), which supports the notion that strong 1Q trends should not necessarily beextrapolated forward through the rest of the year. We increase our FY25/26 PBT forecast to£525m from £520m (vs Bloomberg consensus of £522m) – assuming roughly half of the 1Q25/26sales beat was a 'genuine' beat and roughly half was pulled-forward demand from 2Q25/26. OurEPS estimates rise by +0.8% for FY25/26 but remain unchanged for the next two years. Wereiterate our Underweight stock rating, with an unchanged price target of 280p. Next event is1H25/26 results on 23 September. On our numbers, Kingfisher trades on a FY25/26 PE of 13.3x. Price TargetGBp 280Unchanged Link to our recent downgrade: Overheated - downgrade to UW (20 May 2025). Price PerformanceExchange-LSE52 Week rangeGBP 3.32-2.27 European General Retail James Anstead+44 (0)20 3134 6166james.anstead@barclays.comBarclays, UK Matthew Clements+44 (0)20 7773 6018matthew.clements@barclays.comBarclays, UK Imogen Doyle+44 (0)20 7773 2605imogen.doyle@barclays.comBarclays, UK Kingfisher – 1Q25/26 review NB - company compiled consensus as of 12 May 2025. Looking backwards (Figure 1) •Group total sales £3,314m (vs Barclays £3,248m and cons £3,212m) °Volume and transaction growth driven by seasonal categories, which had a positive miximpact on average selling price. Retail price inflation was flat.°Share gains in UK & ROI, France and Poland.°Trade penetration of 17% (+4ppts YoY).°Ecommerce sales growth +9.3%, with ecommerce penetration of 20%.°Second quarter of underlying growth in big-ticket sales, supported by recent range reviews.Core categories stable.°Seasonal categories did very well and were clearly a major reason for the outperformanceversus expectations, with +12.6% growth for the group overall in 1Q (and +28.3% for UK).Core sales were -0.8%.•Group LFL sales +1.8% (vs Barc -0.4% and cons -0.7%).Excluding adverse calendar impact,LFL would have been +2.7%.°UK & Ireland LFL sales +5.9% (vs Barc +1.6% and cons +0.8%) in a market up LSD.■B&Q LFL sales +7.9% (vs Barc +2.2% and cons +0.9%). Strong seasonal category salessupported by favourable weather, with positive growth in core and big-ticket categories.TradePoint LFL of +7.4%. B&Q marketplace penetration reached 45%. Eight formerHomebase stores converted, with six now open and two remaining stores to be openedby end of May.■Screwfix LFL sales +2.9% (vs Barc +0.7% and cons +0.6%). Supported by extendedproduct range for trade customers and continued growth of one-minute C&C andScrewfix Sprint.°France LFL sales -3.2% (vs Barc -4.8% and cons -3.9%) in a market down MSD.■Castorama LFL sales -3.0% (vs Barc -5.3% and cons -4.2%). Improved underlying trendsacross all categories. On track with restructuring and modernisation plan. Marketplacepenetration reached 17%afterone year.■Brico Dépôt LFL sales -3.3% (vs Barc -4.3% and cons -3.5%). Improvement driven bypositive performance in seasonal categories. Core and 'big-ticket' categories werestable, with continued LFL growth in kitchens supported by recent range reviews. Tradepenetration reached 12% (+4ppts YoY).°Poland LFL sales -3.2% (vs Barc +0.0% and cons +0.3%) in a market down LSD.■Current geopolitical factors adversely impacting the Polish consumer in the quarter.Trade penetration reached 25% (+13ppts YoY). Marketplace scale building followingJanuary launch. •Additional colour °Strong growth in Iberia across core and 'big-ticket' categories, with seasonal impacted byadverse weather. Market share gains in Spain with sales growth supported by strongdemand in Valencia, following flood damage last year.°Screwfix France saw continued progress with LFL sales growth in line with expectations assites mature.°Kingfisher does not have any US sales or operations. Most products sourced in Europe fromthe same country in which those products are then sold. 20-25% of products sourced fromAsia. Kingfisher therefore expects little direct impact from any potential changes in cross-bordertariffsbut remain watchful of any broader impact on both inflation and marketdemand. Looking forwards •No current trading update.Next event is the 1H results on 23 September. •Market ou