翠丰集团：强劲的第一季度（尽管受季节性因素驱动），对业绩指引充满信心

Strong 1Q (albeit seasonal-driven),'confident' on guidance Group LFL (+1.8%) well ahead of consensus (-0.7%), with B&Q(+7.9%) the standout and Poland the weak spot (-3.2%).Seasonal sales a clear driver. Guidance reiterated, althoughKGF "confident" of delivering. Clearly a good 1Q overall,albeit France and Poland still in LFL decline. KGF.L/KGF LNUNDERWEIGHTEuropean General RetailNEUTRALPrice TargetGBp 280Price (27-May-25)GBp 296Potential Upside/Downside-5.3%Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research European General Retail Kingfisher has reported 1Q25/26 sales (three months to end April). James Anstead+44 (0)20 3134 6166james.anstead@barclays.comBarclays, UK NB - company compiled consensus as of 12 May 2025. Looking backwards (see Figure 1 for more details) Matthew Clements+44 (0)20 7773 6018matthew.clements@barclays.comBarclays, UK •Group total sales £3,314m (vs Barclays £3,248m and cons £3,212m) °Volume and transaction growth driven by seasonal categories, which had a positive miximpact on average selling price. Retail price inflation was flat. °Share gains in UK & ROI, France and Poland. °Trade penetration of 17% (+4ppts YoY). °Second quarter of underlying growth in big-ticket sales, supported by recent range reviews.Core categories stable. °Seasonal categories did very well and were clearly a major reason for the outperformanceversus expectations, with +12.6% growth for the group overall in 1Q (and +28.3% for UK).Core sales were -0.8%. •Group LFL sales +1.8% (vs Barc -0.4% and cons -0.7%).Excluding adverse calendar impact,LFL would have been +2.7%. °UK & Ireland LFL sales +5.9% (vs Barc +1.6% and cons +0.8%) in a market up LSD. ■B&Q LFL sales +7.9% (vs Barc +2.2% and cons +0.9%). Strong seasonal category salessupported by favourable weather, with positive growth in core and big-ticket categories.TradePoint LFL of +7.4%. B&Q marketplace penetration reached 45%. Eight former Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 4.Completed: 28-May-25, 06:54 GMTReleased: 28-May-25, 06:55 GMTRestricted - External Homebase stores converted, with six now open and two remaining stores to be openedby end of May. ■Screwfix LFL sales +2.9% (vs Barc +0.7% and cons +0.6%). Supported by extendedproduct range for trade customers and continued growth of one-minute C&C andScrewfix Sprint. °France LFL sales -3.2% (vs Barc -4.8% and cons -3.9%) in a market down MSD. ■Castorama LFL sales -3.0% (vs Barc -5.3% and cons -4.2%). Improved underlying trendsacross all categories. On track with restructuring and modernisation plan. Marketplacepenetration reached 17%afterone year. ■Brico Depot LFL sales -3.3% (vs Barc -4.3% and cons -3.5%). Improvement driven bypositive performance in seasonal categories. Core and 'big-ticket' categories werestable, with continued LFL growth in kitchens supported by recent range reviews. Tradepenetration reached 12% (+4ppts YoY). °Poland LFL sales -3.2% (vs Barc +0.0% and cons +0.3%) in a market down LSD. ■Current geopolitical factors adversely impacting the Polish consumer in the quarter.Trade penetration reached 25% (+13ppts YoY). Marketplace scale building followingJanuary launch. •Additional colour °Strong growth in Iberia across core and 'big-ticket' categories, with seasonal impacted byadverse weather. Market share gains in Spain with sales growth supported by strongdemand in Valencia, following flood damage last year. °Screwfix France saw continued progress with LFL sales growth in line with expectations assites mature. °Kingfisher does not have any US sales or operations. Most products sourced in Europe fromthe same country in which those products are then sold. 20-25% of products sourced fromAsia. Kingfisher therefore expects little direct impact from any potential changes in crossbordertariffsbut remain watchful of any broader impact on both inflation and marketdemand. Looking forwards: •No current trading update.Next event 1H results on 23 September. •Market outlook scenarios unchanged. °UK & ROI - Low case flat and high case LSD growth °Poland - Low case LSD decline and high case LSD growth •PBT guidance reiterated.FY25/26 adjusted PBT of c.£480m to £540m (vs Barclays £520mand consensus £512m). •FCF guidance reiterated.FY25/26 FCF of c.£420m to £480m (vs Barclays £447m andconsensus £443m). FIGURE 1. Kingfisher – Quarterly sales, 21/22-25/26 Source: Barclays Research, Bloomberg Source: Barclays Research, Bloom