Seatrium Limited（STM SP）：买入：2025年第一季度业务更新

Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited, Singapore BranchViewHSBC Global Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.comListen to our insightsFind out moreHSBC Global Research PodcastsMAINTAINBUYTARGET PRICE(SGD)2.68SHARE PRICE(SGD)2.06(as of28 May 2025)MARKET DATAMarket cap(SGDm)Market cap (USDm)3m ADTV (USDm)FINANCIALS AND RATIOS(SGD)Year to12/2024aHSBC EPSHSBC EPS (prev)Change (%)Consensus EPSPE (x)Dividend yield (%)EV/EBITDA (x)ROE (%)52-WEEK PRICE(SGD)Source:LSEGIBES, HSBC estimatesRahul Bhatia*, CFAAnalyst, ASEAN Conglomerates andIndustrialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchrahul1.bhatia@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 0623* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulationsEquitiesMachinerySingapore05/24Target price: 2.68 ◆◆◆ PREVIOUS TARGET(SGD)2.68UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE+30.1%7,028Free float5,451BBG25RIC12/2025e0.0590.1140.0590.1140.00.0440.10934.90.711.03.111/24High: 2.58 Low: 1.38 Current: 2.06 60%STM SPSEAT.SI12/2026e12/2027e0.1570.1840.1570.1840.00.00.00.1640.23218.113.111.21.41.92.36.75.54.65.97.88.71.202.052.9005/25 2Financial statementsYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eProfit & loss summary(SGDm)Revenue9,2319,66310,38510,737EBITDA6279921,1361,214Depreciation & amortisation-415-407-400Operating profit/EBIT212585735Net interest-125-132-99PBT191473657HSBC PBT191473657Taxation-35-91-127Net profit157385532HSBC net profit200385532Cash flow summary(SGDm)Cash flow from operations97513718Capex-100-150-150Cash flow frominvestment120-150-150Dividends-13-98-135Change in net debt-57-266-432FCF equity75363568Balance sheet summary(SGDm)Intangible fixed assets4,0763,9353,7943,653Tangible fixed assets4,4634,3464,2374,134Current assets8,1398,6599,2949,916Cash & others1,9421,9072,0402,417Total assets17,48317,74618,13018,509Operating liabilities7,8548,1538,4638,699Gross debt2,6312,3312,0311,731Net debt690424-9Shareholders' funds6,3386,6046,9827,427Invested capital6,8826,8816,8226,587Ratio, growth and per share analysisYear to12/2024a12/2025e12/2026e12/2027eY-o-y % changeRevenue26.64.77.5EBITDA58.214.5Operating profit175.325.7PBT148.438.8HSBC EPS92.438.3Ratios (%)Revenue/IC (x)1.31.41.5ROIC2.56.98.7ROE3.15.97.8ROA2.23.33.9EBITDA margin6.810.310.9Operating profitmargin2.36.17.1EBITDA/net interest (x)5.07.511.5Net debt/equity10.96.4-0.1Net debt/EBITDA (x)1.10.4-0.0CF from operations/net debt14.1121.1Per share data(SGD)EPS Rep (diluted)0.0460.1140.1570.184HSBC EPS (diluted)0.0590.1140.1570.184DPS0.0150.0290.0400.047Book value1.8721.9502.0622.194Financials & valuation:Seatrium Limited Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 28 May 2025 A financial turnaround in progressSeatrium estimates(SGDm)2023a**2024a**P&L-reportedRevenue7,2919,231% growth274%27%Gross profit(209)291% growthnmnmMargin (%)-3%3%EBITDA(1,475)627%growthnmnmMargin (%)-20%7%EBIT(1,931)212% growthnmnmPBT(2,016)191% growthnmnmNetprofit (reported)(2,017)157%growthnmnmMargin (%)-28%2%P&L-underlyingGross profit272435Margin (%)4%5%EBITDA628771Margin (%)9%8%Netprofit(28)200Margin (%)0%2%Balance sheetTotal current assets6,3208,139-cash2,2701,942Total non-current assets9,9079,344-PPE4,7104,463-Intangibles4,2154,076Total current liabilities6,2657,585-short term debt743257Totalnon-current liabilities3,5463,557-long term debt2,2742,374Total equity6,4166,341-share capital8,7548,754-reserve & surplus(2,359)(2,416)New orders (SGDm)4,50014,300Net debt/equity12%11%ROE (underlying)0%3%Return on NTA (underlying)-1%9%Source:Company data, HSBC estimates. *2022 is actual (i.e., pre-merger). **Post-merger, i.e., combined entity from 2023a onwards. NM–Not meaningful. We estimate a 2026e ROE ofc8% and a return on nettangible assets of c17%The company has a strongbalance sheet with netgearing of 11% as of 2024From a loss-making entity in2023 to apost-merger entitywith SGD532m of profit in2026e, we expect a completeoverhaul of financials, drivenby a combination of neworder wins and synergiesfrom the merger 4Valuation and risksSeatriumSTM SPCurrent price:SGD2.06Target price:SGD2.68Upside:+30.1%BuyNote: Priced at 28 May 2025Source:Bloomberg, HSBC estimates ValuationOur fair value calculation is based on ourpublished 2027estimates of net tangible assets (NTA) and the number ofshares for the entity. We apply a P/NTAmultiple of2.0x(unchanged) toour 2027 NTA estimate (unchanged). We use2027e NTA to reflect thepositive impact ofrecentsignificantnew orderson the financials(assuming a higher contribution forthese ordersto flow through over the course of 2025-27).Further, we incorporate synergies of SGD1.5bn in our valuationcalculations (unchanged).Based on the above methodologyand our unchanged estimates, wearrive at our unchanged target price of SGD2.68. Our target priceimplies c30% upside from current levelsand we maintain our Buyrating.STM valuationValuationmethodology/comments2027e nettangible assetsP/Bmultiple(x)UnderlyingvalueUnderlyingvalue/share(SGD)Synergies(