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15%11%76%85%12%0%OFSRefiningStableNegative FIGURE 2. Outlook Distribution by Index - May 202572%17%5%10%91%3%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%E&PMidstreamPositiveSource: Barclays ResearchRestricted - External 10%6%82%61%7%33%OFSRefiningNegativePaul Chambers+1 713 236 2455paul.d.chambers@barclays.comBCI, USDouglas Le Clercq+1 212 526 0549douglas.leclercq@barclays.comBCI, US 76% BB E&PThere is only one positive outlook in all of BB E&P (CIVI, rated BB- by S&P), showing the steepclimb faced by many E&Ps and the realities of lower oil price assumptions. Despite this, we thinkthe next E&P to move to investment grade will be Permian Resources (PR),afterAR in 2024 andVNOM this year. Generally speaking, high yield E&P companies have a harder road to IG thantheir midstream peers, as agencies require added time for acquisitions to be integrated,alongside a changing 2025 oil price. In S&P's BB+ stable outlook report, it noted that PR couldbe upgraded if 1) its scale remains competitive with lower BBBs (it is); 2) geographic diversityemerges (not likely); or 3) FFO/debt remains above 60% on a three-year strip and on mid-cycleprices of $50/$2.75 (we think it qualifies). On the other hand, HILCRP, which was assigned anegative outlook by both agenciesaftera flurry of debt-financed acquisitions, will likely have itscomposite rating lowered to BB-.FIGURE 3. BB E&P Agency Ratings and OutlookTickerHILCRPMURPRRRCCHRDCNXCIVIMTDRGPORSMSource: Moody's, S&P, Fitch, Barclays Research Moody'sS&PFitchCompositeBa2 / NEGBB+ / NEGNR / NRBBBa2 / STABLEBB+ / NEGBB+ / STABLEBBBa2 / STABLEBB+ / STABLEBB+ / STABLEBBBa2 / STABLEBB+ / STABLENR / NRBBBa2 / STABLEBB / STABLENR / NRBBB1 / STABLEBB / STABLEBB+ / STABLEBB-B1 / STABLEBB- / POSBB+ / STABLEBB-B1 / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB / STABLEBB-WR / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB-B1 / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB / STABLEBB-2 Single-B E&PA similar "stable" bias is prevalent among single-B producers, with only CRGYFN, TALO, NOG,VETCN, and STRCNA having one positive outlook (STRCNA has two). We think just a fewcompanies from the single-B list could move to a BB- composite rating over the next twelvemonths, though current sentiment and oil volatility may bring upgrades to a standstill.Candidates include ASCRES, CRGYFN, CRC, BTECN, and VETCN (all already in the Ba index withtwo BB- ratings). WILDFI, with its oil hedged in 2025 (~70% ) and in 2026 (~60%), is the issuer wethink is most mismatched with its composite rating (B).FIGURE 4. Single-B E&P Agency Ratings and OutlookTickerCRCBTECNCRGYFNMEGCNVETCNTALOMGYASCRESSOILCNIAECNNOGSOILCNAETUNIMSSCRKRCKENESTRCNATEINENSTRGFRVTLEKRAOIGWILDFICRKBRYENCIACWTIKTGLLCENQLNSource: Moody's, S&P, Fitch, Barclays Research Moody'sS&PFitchCompositeB2 / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB- / STABLEB+B1 / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB- / STABLEB+B1 / STABLEBB- / POSBB- / STABLEB+B1 / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB- / STABLEB+B3 / POSBB- / STABLEBB- / NEGB+B3u / STABLEB+ / STABLEB+ / POSB+B1 / STABLEBB- / STABLENR / NRB+B1 / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB- / POSB+B2 / STABLEBB- / STABLENR / NRB+B1 / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB- / STABLEB+B1 / STABLEB+ / STABLEBB- / POSB+B2 / STABLEBB- / STABLENR / NRB+B3 / STABLEB / STABLEB+ / STABLEBB3 / STABLEB+ / STABLEB+ / STABLEBB3 / STABLEB+ / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB3 / POSBB- / POSWD / NABB3 / STABLEB+ / STABLENR / NRBB3 / STABLEB / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB3 / NEGB+ / STABLENR / NRBB2 / STABLEB / STABLENR / NRBB3 / STABLEB+ / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB3 / STABLEB+ / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB3 / STABLEB / STABLEB / STABLEB-B3 / STABLEB- / STABLEB- / STABLEB-B3 / STABLEB- / STABLEB / STABLEB-B3 / STABLEB+ / STABLEB- / STABLEB-B3 / STABLEB- / STABLEB- / STABLEB-Caa1 / STABLEB+ / STABLENR / NRB-3 MidstreamWith DTMINC leaving the index next week, attention turns to what company might be next?Based on current ratings and outlooks, we would highlight KNTK, SUN, and VENTGL, with HESMa wild card. The single-B credits are more a mixture of dissimilar companies, though the issuersthat we think have assets that are compatible with current BB peers include GEL, HARMID,BLURAC, and TEP. For TEP, outsized net leverage and high capex remain headwinds (andsupport the negative outlooks from S&P and Fitch).FIGURE 5. Midstream Agency Ratings and OutlookTickerKNTKSUNHESMROCKIEBLKCQPVENTGLVEGLPLAMNORMIDBPLCNXMPFSPBCNVENLNGNGLDKLHARMIDSPHTEPHOWMIDAPUGLPBLURACMMLPGELINTMATFIPTGENFETLPFGPSUMMPLSource: Moody's, S&P, Fitch, Barclays Research Moody'sS&PFitchCompositeBa1 / STABLEBB+ / POSBB+ / STABLEBB+Ba1 *- / UNDERREVIEWBB+ / STABLEBB+ / STABLEBB+Ba2 / STABLEBB+ *+ / POSBB+ / STABLEBBBa2 / NEGBB / NEGBB / NEGBBBa2 / STABLEBB / STABLENR / NRBBBa2 / POSBB+ / POSNR / NRBBBa2 / STABLE(P)BB+ / STABLEBB / STABLEBBBa3 / POSBB+ / STABLENR / NRBBBa2 / STABLEBB / STABLENR / NRBBBa3 / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB / STABLEBB-B1 / STABLEBB / STABLENR / NRBB-Ba3 / STABLEBB- / STABLENR / NRBB-B1 / POSBB / STABLEBB / STABLEBB-B2 / STABLEB+ / STABLEBB- / STABLEB+B3 / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB- / STABLEB+B1 / STABLEBB- / STABLEBB- / STABLEB+B1 / STABLEBB- /