马斯特克（MTZ）：发布后的反馈：上行关键因素是什么？重申买入评级

2025E2026E2027E13,646.714,860.716,016.41,141.31,308.71,434.11,141.41,308.01,432.23.956.107.158.20 Julien Dumoulin-Smith * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2066 | jds@jefferies.comPaul Zimbardo * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8497 | pzimbardo@jefferies.comBrian Russo, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 778-8559 | brusso@jefferies.comDushyant Ailani, CFA * | Equity Analyst1 (212) 778-8318 | dailani@jefferies.comTanner James, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (212) 788-8667 | tjames@jefferies.comJamieson Ward, CFA * | Equity Analyst+1 (281) 774-2081 | jamieson.ward@jefferies.comSpark Li * | Equity Associate+1 (713) 308-4573 (office) | sli8@jefferies.comWhitney Mutalemwa * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 707-6413 | wmutalemwa@jefferies.comEthan Corcoran * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 284-2462 | ecorcoran@jefferies.comSee E&C sector as uniquely positioned tobenefit from tight labor pool and resourcingtoconstruct myriad of projects.Marginexpansion in tandem with top-line growthmakes MTZ among the best values acrossour coverage. 'Proving out' story is the righttime as see secular (and improving tailwinds)across core businesses. The Long View: MasTecInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferMasTec Inc. (MTZ) is a leading infrastructure construction company. Ithas a diverse longstanding customer base and wide geographical footprintsupported by a skilled workforce. MTZ has the ability to be competitive andsecure accretive projects of varying scope and scale. Due to this it cancapitalize on servicing the need for infrastructure build out, maintenance,and repair by its customers. We see incremental earnings potential from itspipeline business as the demand for energy mix grows and large transmissionawards increase. The energy transition is a catalyst towards the company'sstock rerating higher along with execution and long-term top-line growth andmargin expansion targets.Base Case,$193, +24%Weapply a blended valuation approach andequally-weight2026 EV/EBITDA(inc.segmentbreakdown valuation), P/E, 2026 FCF yield andDCFvaluation methodologies.Collectively,ourprice target offers attractive upside and favorablerisk/reward. Based on our blended approach, wevalue MTZ at $193 per share representing +24%upside reflective of favorable risk/reward.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues:1. Clean Energy Transition & Carbon Emissions:MasTec is a leading infrastructure constructioncompany focusing on advancing the energy transition to a lower carbon economy. With a significantportfolio in wind, solar, and other renewable energy projects, MasTec is directly contributing to thereduction of carbon emissions.2. Environmental Stewardship & Resource Efficiency:MasTec iscommitted to environmental stewardship by ensuring its operations minimize environmental impact,including the reduction of carbon emissions and the efficient use of natural resources.Company Targets:1. Achieve a significant reduction in carbon emissions through the expansion of clean energy projects.2. Strengthen the "Zero Harm" safety culture across all operations to maintain industry-leading safetyperformance.Question to Management:Please see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 18 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$224, +44%The company is able to obtain and execute on highmargin projects and increase its segment EBITDA.Large transmission projects not contemplated inthe base case would be accretive to valuation.Acceleration of pipeline activity can also drive long-term value. Strategic and accretive M&A. Double-digit margins on $15Bn of top-line can drive upsidescenario. Downside Scenario,$135, -13%Downsidescenario would include Tariff/IRAmodificationsthat impede renewables buildand adverse utility regulatory outcomes causingcustomerprojectdelays,moderatingMSA related work.Inability topassthrough inflationary costs for labor/equipmentwould negatively impact financialresults.Economic recession.Costs/expensesmeaningfully rise due to wage inflation in labor,raw materials becoming harder to procure, and/or projects get delayed. All of these factors couldcontribute to margin deterioration and slowingrevenue growth.Catalysts•Large transmission awards over next 12-18months•Accelerated customer capex spending.•Increase in its number of relationships withhyperscalers and other data center customers•Less onerous administrative changes to IRAand/or more constructive tariff policy•New customer additions and higher MSArenewal rates•Pipeline segment momentum over next 12-18months•Accretive M&A•Achieving double-digit EBITDA margins cancellationsor2 1. What specific strategies are being implemented to expand MasTec's renewable energy portfolio andfurther reduce carbon emissions? 2. How does MasTec ensure continuous improvement in its safetyculture, particularly in high-risk projects?Please see important disclosure information on pages 12 - 18 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unaut