卡普里控股（CPRI）：开始获得一些动力？

F25EF26E(4.8)14.1(1.8)14.10.00.055.755.921.519.60.0(0.1)0.0(0.1)28 May 202518.0420.0011%43.34/11.865,888.55MarNA2,1275,0686M12M(23.3)(47.3)(1.8)11.0(21.5)(58.3)08/2405/255000550060006500 RatingMarket-PerformPrice TargetCPRIAdjusted EPSF24ACPRI (USD)3.53OLD--Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.Capri put out a decent Q4 (top line beat, modest EBIT miss) and a positive message onmedium-term earnings growth, as the multi-year turnaround continues. We like the MT algobut, with another year of declines guided and plenty of ST uncertainty still lingering, we stayneutral and watch for more signs of traction in the coming quarters.FY26 guide still negative, but Mgmt indicating sequential improvement in AUR, sell-through, assortment and customer traction. FY26 (ex-Versace) is guided for another6-9% decline in sales and 100 bps contraction in GM,though Q1 (8 weeks into the quarter)is already showing progress in Kors sell-throughs, comp sales growth, and customer traction,and Mgmt indicated continued improvement through the year.Mgmt painted a positive picture of MT growth, from a combination of top line growth,margin improvement, and a healthy buyback with a clean balance sheet.BeyondFY26, Mgmt sounded optimistic about returning to top line growth (MSD% mid-term),withsteady margin improvement from both healthier full-price selling and operating leverage,and a buyback that will be “meaningfully” accretive after a cash infusion from the upcomingVersace sale (and paydown of existing debt).We like the MT story and will watch for more signs of traction. It’s early days to callthe turnaround a success, with ST macro risks looming and some strategies (e.g. AUR,rebranding) still too early to call wins, but we like the direction of the company and will watchfor continued signs of traction in the coming quarters.Investment ImplicationsRemain Market-Perform, and maintain our $20 PT.See the Disclosure Appendix of this report for required disclosures, analyst certifications and otherimportant information. Alternatively, visit our Global Research Disclosure Website.First Published: 29 May 2025 04:01 UTC Completion Date: 29 May 2025 00:16 UTC F25EF26E(3.77)1.280.860.73FinancialsF24AF25EF26ECAGRReported EPS(1.96)(10.00)1.28--EBIT (M)518.0091.0090.60(58.2)%EBITDA (M)706.00236.00258.42(39.5)%FCF/Share1.031.292.1745.3%EPS Growth (%)(42.4)(206.9)(133.9)--Gross Margin (%)64.663.661.4--LC Sales Growth (%)(8.4)(13.5)(25.0)--Close DateSPXFYEDiv YieldEV (USD) (M)PerformanceAbsolute (%)SPX (%)Relative (%)$50$45$40$35$30$25$20$1505/24 DETAILSRelated work:CPRI: Definitive agreement to sell Versace to PradaCapri: Dario Vitale joins Versace from Miu Miu, as Chief Creative OfficerCapri: Recap of 2025 Investor DayCPRI: Ex-growth for another yearCapri: A good breakup?HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE PRINT AND CALLQ4 Sales declined 14.1% cc (vs. -20% guide).•By brand,Kors (83% of the ex-Versace business) was down -14% cc and Jimmy Choo was down -1.5% cc. Versace (to besold to Prada) was down -20% cc. Michael Kors saw revenue decline at a similar rate to last year excluding FX and storeclosures. Jimmy Choo saw a HSD% decline in global retail sales.•By region,ex-Versace, Americas sales (61% of business) were down -10%, EMEA sales (26% of business) down -10%, andAsia (12% of business), down -26%. Notably, Jimmy Choo sales increased 9% in EMEA — it was the only brand and region toexperience growth.•By channel, DTC sales declined mid-teens%, with e-commerce fairing slightly better than stores. The store optimization planhad a LSD% effect on retail sales. The wholesale channel declined DD% due to overall channel softness and past wholesaleexposure reduction initiatives.Adj. EBIT margin was -3.2% (vs. -2.6% guide).GM came in at 61%, down 170 bps YoY, which was below expectations for flatGM, primarily due to actions taken during the quarter to ensure a more current inventory position, which primarily impacted JimmyChoo GM (66.2% vs. 70.1% last year). Kors posted gross margin of 58.6%, down 220 bps YoY, driven by lower full-price sell-throughs on older styles. Notably, however, AUR trends improved sequentially, down MSD% vs. HSD% in Q3, driven by higher fullprice sell-through on new styles. Operating expense declined by -25m (vs. -50m guide), coming in at 64.2% of sales, with benefitsfrom their cost reduction program being partially offset by higher variable costs and unfavorable FX compared to expectation.Adj.EPS came in at -$4.90 (-$0.30 excluding the non-cash tax valuation allowance charge), vs. Cons -0.18. The large EPS misswas the result of a non-cash tax valuation allowance charge of $545 million (-4.60 impact to EPS) taken against the Company'sdeferred tax assets, of which $119 million was related to Versace. Q4 FCF was positive, coming in at +153m vs. -6m LY.Mgmt provided Q1 guidance and an update to FY26 guidance today, excluding Versace.Since CPRI has entered into adefinitive agreement to sell Versace to Prada, its results will be classified as