卡普里控股（CPRI）：第四季度表现喜忧参半；迈克尔·科尔斯早期销售情况有所改善

2024A2025A2026E2027E5,170.04,442.03,322.03,335.03.50(3.75)1.33--3,934.04,036.0--1.05 1.671.60 Ashley Helgans * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7367 | ahelgans@jefferies.comBlake Anderson, CFA * | Equity Associate(212) 323-7686 | banderson2@jefferies.comBryan Pinedo, CFA * | Equity Associate+1 (917) 421-1958 (office) | bpinedo@jefferies.com The Long View: Capri HoldingsInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferWe believe CPRI has a solid runway for growth LT, as it can improve itsstore operations, grow ecom, expand categories, and further penetrate theAsia region; however, we rate the stock Hold as the current risks from theMichael Kors brand acceleration strategy falling short of expectations andmacro headwinds, are likely to weigh on sentiment and results in the near term.Base Case,$17, -6%•The MK brand is pressured in the NT, mainly inthe wholesale channel, but retail also slows dueto macro pressures•Asia remains pressured in FY26 due to industryslowdown•Versace sales occurs in 2H CY25•Cost savings help preserve EBIT, w/ OM% of~3%•$17 PT = ~10x P/E on our FY27 estimate of$1.67Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues:1) Energy Management.CPRI is focused on making fashion more environmentallysustainable in terms of carbon emissions and waste.2) Materials Sourcing & Efficiencyare essentialconsiderations in the transition to usage of more environmentally preferred materials. Sustainablepackaging practices, such as reducing packaging size, increasing the mix of recycled materials, andautomation can reduce costs.Company Targets: 1)100% carbon-neutral across direct operations by 2025.2)100% renewable energyin direct operations by 2025.3)100% recyclable or sustainably sourced point-of-sale (POS) packagingby 2025.4)Zero hazardous chemicals across supply chain by 2025.5)10% reduction in key suppliers’aggregate water use by 2025.6)95% traceability of fabric, trim, and hardware suppliers and processingunits by 2025, and of raw material suppliers by 2030.Qs to Mgmt:1)How do your energy management goals affect your supply chain operations and LT margintargets?2)What are customers asking for in terms of fashion circularity?3)How do you manage wageinflation?Industry ESG Report LinkPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$24, +33%•Wholesale recovers as inventory balances out,and the handbags category grows more quicklythan expected•AURs expand, driven by lower promotions andbetter product acceptance•Macro headwinds abate sooner than expected•Cost savings achieved are more than expectedand tariff headwinds are mostly mitigated•FY27 EPS: $2.04; $24 PT based on 12x Downside Scenario,$11, -39%•Macroenvironmentdepartment store traffic and wholesale biz•China sales continue to be challenged by thepandemic and are slower to recover•Michael Kors brand fails to elevate on priceelasticity•Tariff impacts take more of a toll than expected•JC headwinds detract from modest MKimprovements•FY27 EPS: $1.18; $11 PT based on 9x EPSCatalysts•MK brand is able to elevate through priceincreases, marketing, innovation, and controlleddistribution•Versace closes its price gaps vs. traditionalEuropean luxury•Recovery in China business•Asset divestitures•Share buybacks worsens,affecting2 Q4 Sales and EPS Miss:Q4 sales decreased -15.4% (-14.1% CC) to $1.04B, above cons. $1.00B andguide of $975M. EBIT of -$33M missed -$24M cons. and -$25M guide. Adj-EPS of -$4.90 was below-$0.13 Street. See initial take here.Model Update:Our update estimates exclude Versace and are from continuing operations (i.e.Michael Kors and Jimmy Choo). We model Q1 and FY26 inline w/ guide. Our FY27 sales/EPS are$3.34B (flat Y/Y)/$1.67 (+25% Y/Y) vs. $4.04B/$1.60 cons. Our $17 PT = ~10x P/E.Please see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Exhibit 1 - CPRI Income Statement.Total RevenueTotal Revenue Y/Y %Cost of SalesGross ProfitGross MarginOperating ExpensesOperating IncomeD&AEBITDAInterest Expense (Income)Foreign currency loss and other (income)Pretax IncomeIncome TaxesNet IncomeNet loss attributable to NCINet Income to Capri Holdings - Cont OpsFully Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP) - Cont OpsFully Diluted Shares OutstandingMargin AnalysisGross ProfitOperating ExpensesOperating IncomeEBITDATax Rate (% of Pretax)Net Income% Change Y/YSalesGross ProfitOperating ExpensesOperating IncomePretax IncomeNet IncomeDiluted EPSBps Y/YGross ProfitOperating ExpensesOperating IncomeSource: Company filings, JefferiesPlease see important disclosure information on pages 5 - 10 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Company DescriptionCapri HoldingsCapri Holdings Limited, a global fashion luxury group, consists of three brands: Michael Kors, Jimmy Choo, and Versace. These brands cov