欧洲物流：电动革命：分化——向电动汽车的转变如何塑造欧洲物流利润池

Welcome to the 2025 edition of Bernstein’sElectric Revolutionseries - our annual cross-sector look at the transformation of the EV landscape. This year’s theme is divergence:while China’s EV market pushes ahead with scale and innovation, the West is slowing, facingdemand headwinds, policy uncertainty, and rising costs. The result? A bifurcated globalEV industry, with distinct implications for OEMs, suppliers, energy players, and investors.In this note, we look at how the logistics of EVs differ from those of ICE vehicles, and howsupply chains need to evolve. 30% fewer components go into an EV. Battery logisticsrequire specialized handling. And linear supply chains become circular as end-of-life materialrecycling becomes important. We see these changes as beneficial for forwarders, with morerisk in Express.Huge in global trade, bigger in logistics profits.The automotive sector boasts one ofthe world’s most complex supply chains, with several tiers of suppliers and some 15,000to 25,000 parts in a typical vehicle. Specialized manufacturing expertise is required,giving rise to a global industry of advanced manufacturers and a 13% share of trade inmanufactured goods. The industry’s complex and capital-intensive nature creates demandfor different logistics services, making this a major profit source for logistics companies.Fewer components in an EV.ICE vehicles are complex machines: each intricate pieceof must be individually manufactured for assembly. Some parts are similar between ICEand EVs: brakes, electric windows, etc — but the replacement of a complex engine andtransmission with a battery and a motor cuts the number of components in an EV by c. 30%.Fewer components imply fewer shortages, and fewer shortages imply a reduced need toexpedite in the manufacturing process.Battery logistics increase complexity.One of the most important components of an EVcreates the need for a new, more sophisticated service line. Batteries commonly weigh upto 600kg, needing special lifting equipment. They are hazardous (fire risk) and need specialhandling. And unlike the linear supply chains of an ICE — make it, maintain it, scrap it —batteries contain valuable materials that need recovery and recycling at the end of theirlives, making supply chains more circular. All these steps require logistics support.The EV supply chain is not just a greener version of the traditional one.It is insteadan entirely new logistics architecture, one that is heavier, more dangerous, more valuable,more complex, and more politicized. Its logistics are defined by a combination of physicaldemands (battery weight), legal constraints (hazard classifications), geopolitical tensions(mineral sourcing), and digital requirements (traceability).Positive for forwarders, neutral at shipping lines, risk in Express?Higher levels ofcomplexity in battery logistics in our view point to an expanding profit pool at sophisticatedfreight forwarders (including all three of our covered names), and an opportunity to increasetheir market share in this vertical. At Express (~50% of DHL EBIT), we see longer-term risksfrom a lower need to expedite as the number of parts falls. We see the move to EVs as moreneutral for container lines.www.bernsteinresearch.com INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONSThe automotive sector features one of the world economy’s most complex supply chains, accounting for 15% of profit at majorlogistics companies and 13% of global trade in manufactured goods. Tens of thousands of components criss-cross the worldthrough several tiers of suppliers. As electric vehicles rise in importance, supply chains must evolve. 30% fewer components gointo an EV. Battery logistics require specialized handling. And linear supply chains become circular as end-of-life material recyclingbecomes important. We see these changes as beneficial for forwarders, with more risk in Express.•The automotive sector is crucial to global trade.A car is among the most complex manufactured products, given thesheer number of components: commonly 15,000 to 25,000 per vehicle. As a result, auto supply chains are also complex: amulti-tier supplier network provides original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) with the required parts to assemble and sellcars. Carmakers generally have direct relationships with tier one suppliers, while the rest of the supply chain is “shrouded inmystery”. Production outsourcing over the last 30 years, helped by falling transport costs and production cost arbitrage, hasfurther added complexity to auto supply chains. Today, the auto sector accounts for c. 9% of global trade by value - c. $2tn- and for 13% of global manufacturing exports. The sector is a globalization heavyweight and provides logistics servicescompanies with plenty of work: Danish freight forwarder DSV, for example, generates c. 15% of its group gross profits byservicing the various players in the auto sector. The current drive for more supply chain resilience could even further lengthensupply chains and bring more