哨兵一号（S）：宏观因素影响，期望更谨慎

2024A2025A621.2821.5621.2821.5(0.28)0.05(0.28)0.05 2026E998.61,011.30.180.21 Joseph Gallo * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7402 | jgallo@jefferies.comBrent Thill * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1559 | bthill@jefferies.comAnnick Baumann * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8068 | abaumann@jefferies.comAnjali Papadopoulos * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8590 | apapadopoulos@jefferies.com The Long View: SentinelOneInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferSentinelOneprovides a state-of-the-art,AI-powered,next-gen endpointplatform that has sizable opportunity before it to help companies respondto endpoint and other threats in a more automated capacity. SentinelOne'splatform is in the right place and right time, given security has taken ongreater importance with WFH creating a more distributed network and withthe increasing number of large-scale breaches.Base Case,$23, +17%•Emerges as one of the leaders in the marketforendpoint security but also continues toadd modules, which expands the addressablemarket and maintains hypergrowth.•Customers continue to purchase multiplesolutions,and the net retention rate staysconsistently at or above 110%.•SentinelOne is consistently sustainably free-cash-flow-positive•$23 PT is DCF-derived and implies 6x EV/CY25Erevenue.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues: (1) Data Security.Cybersecurity companies play a crucial role both in takingresponsibility for maintaining data security and in ensuring customers have access to the products andservices required to achieve data security. We expect to see continued focus on data security with a threatlandscape that continues to grow.(2)Employee, Engagement, Diversity & Inclusion.We see companyculture as important in a labor market that continues to be defined by a skill shortage. Additionally, giventhe known underrepresentation of women and minority groups in the software industry today, a focus onbuilding a diverse workforce is cardinal.Company Targets:No quantifiable targets have been given.Q’s to Mgmt: (1)When can we expect more definitive targets on how you aim to reduce your impact onthe environment?(2)How has the focus on data security by your customers changed over the past 24months?(3)What are some of the definitive actions you are taking to diversify your workforce, do youhave any DEI initiatives?Software Sector ESG Integration RefreshPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$33, +68%•Emerges as the industry standard vs CRWDforendpoint security but also continues toadd modules, which expands the addressablemarket and maintains hypergrowth.•Progress in operating leverage better thanexpected•Customers purchase more solutions thanexpectedand the net retention rate staysconsistently above 110%.•$33 PT is DCF derived and implies 9x EV/CY25Erevenue. Downside Scenario,$15, -24%•Revenue growth decelerates faster thanexpected due to increased competition in theendpoint market.•Thecompanyhascommissions on renewals, which decreasesfuture potential operating leverage.•Needs to make continued investments toremainrelevant in the marketplace,furtherdelaying cash flow consistency.•$15 PT is DCF derived and implies 4x EV/CY25Erevenue.Catalysts•Successful expansion internationally resultsinoutsized growth for years,leading toimprovement in operating leverage.•Acceleration of new customer growth andmaintaining strong gross retention rates.•Continued successful execution of company’sland and expand strategy leads to continuedgrowth in net revenue retention (115%+) andoperating leverage. tocontinuepaying2 Share Repurchase Opportunity.S disclosed a $200M share repurchase authorization with noexpiration date. We believe this instills confidence that mgmt is focusing on the LT trajectory of thebusiness while working to reduce dilution. Given S's strong balance sheet ($1.2B+ of cash), this stillallows for room to invest in innovation and strategic priorities (not prohibitive to growth or futureM&A).F1Q ARR Miss.F1Q ARR of $948M grew 24% yoy and implies sequential ARR added down 26% yoyat $28M added, which fell short of cons $32M added. S attributed weaker growth in sequential ARRto isolated macro disruption in F1Q from a handful of deals slipping. When accounting for churnwe calculate down 7% yoy growth in NNARR, which is much worse vs +2% growth last Q on a 12pt easier comp.Steady FY26 Bottom-Line Guide.S guided GM and non-GAAP op margins in-line with previous guideand expects FCF margin to exceed op margin by several pts (implying mid to high single digitsfor FY26). FY26 non-GAAP op margins guidance of 3.5% at the midpoint was in-line with cons andimplies 660 bps yoy improvement (we see ample runway left given S has achieved 16 pts of leveragelast year and trails CRWD by 15 pts at a similar scale). For F2Q, S expect non-GAAP op margin tobreakeven, implying a yoy improvement of approx. 300 bps. However, we still note tha