哨兵一号（S）：第一季度预览预计将小幅超出预期；谨慎指引

2024A2025A621.2821.5621.2821.5(0.28)0.05(0.28)0.05 2026E1,010.01,011.30.180.18 Joseph Gallo * | Equity Analyst(212) 336-7402 | jgallo@jefferies.comBrent Thill * | Equity Analyst(415) 229-1559 | bthill@jefferies.comAnnick Baumann * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8068 | abaumann@jefferies.comAnjali Papadopoulos * | Equity Associate+1 (212) 778-8590 | apapadopoulos@jefferies.comSource: Jefferies, FactsetPriced as of market close on 5-21-2025Chart 2 - Average Performance to Plan Delta(1Q vs 4Q).--------------SZSRPDNETSource: Jefferies Proprietary Security VAR Survey (Jan '25 &Apr '25, N=25) The Long View: SentinelOneInvestment Thesis / Where We DifferSentinelOneprovides a state-of-the-art,AI-powered,next-gen endpointplatform that has sizable opportunity before it to help companies respondto endpoint and other threats in a more automated capacity. SentinelOne'splatform is in the right place and right time, given security has taken ongreater importance with WFH creating a more distributed network and withthe increasing number of large-scale breaches.Base Case,$23, +19%•Emerges as one of the leaders in the marketfor endpoint security but also continues toadd modules, which expands the addressablemarket and maintains hypergrowth.•Customers continue to purchase multiplesolutions,and the net retention rate staysconsistently at or above 110%.•SentinelOne is consistently sustainably free-cash-flow-positive•$23 PT is DCF-derived and implies 6x EV/CY25Erevenue.Sustainability MattersTop Material Issues: (1) Data Security.Cybersecurity companies play a crucial role both in takingresponsibility for maintaining data security and in ensuring customers have access to the products andservices required to achieve data security. We expect to see continued focus on data security with a threatlandscape that continues to grow.(2)Employee, Engagement, Diversity & Inclusion.We see companyculture as important in a labor market that continues to be defined by a skill shortage. Additionally, giventhe known underrepresentation of women and minority groups in the software industry today, a focuson building a diverse workforce is cardinal.Company Targets:No quantifiable targets have been given.Q’s to Mgmt: (1)When can we expect more definitive targets on how you aim to reduce your impact onthe environment?(2)How has the focus on data security by your customers changed over the past 24months?(3)What are some of the definitive actions you are taking to diversify your workforce, do youhave any DEI initiatives?Software Sector ESG Integration RefreshPlease see important disclosure information on pages 7 - 12 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. Upside Scenario,$33, +70%•Emerges as the industry standard vs CRWDfor endpoint security but also continues toadd modules, which expands the addressablemarket and maintains hypergrowth.•Progress in operating leverage better thanexpected•Customers purchase more solutions thanexpectedand the net retention rate staysconsistently above 110%.•$33 PT is DCF derived and implies 9x EV/CY25Erevenue. Downside Scenario,$15, -23%•Revenue growth decelerates faster thanexpected due to increased competition in theendpoint market.•Thecompanyhascommissions on renewals, which decreasesfuture potential operating leverage.•Needs to make continued investments toremainrelevant in the marketplace,furtherdelaying cash flow consistency.•$15 PT is DCF derived and implies 4x EV/CY25Erevenue.Catalysts•Successful expansion internationally resultsinoutsized growth for years,leading toimprovement in operating leverage.•Acceleration of new customer growth andmaintaining strong gross retention rates.•Continued successful execution of company’sland and expand strategy leads to continuedgrowth in net revenue retention (115%+) andoperating leverage. tocontinuepaying2 Things We Are Looking for With S.•FY26 Top-Line Guide.S guided FY26 rev to $1,010M at the midpoint, growing 23% yoy (thisaccounts for 1pt of headwind from Deception sunset). We expect a prudent guidance followingany beats given it already embedded an acceleration of net new ARR.•Ample Room for Margin Improvement Remaining.FY26 guidance implies only ~660 bps yoyof leverage for non-GAAP op margins at the midpoint vs prior year's 16 pts yoy and past 3 years'average of 27 pts, which we believe is feasible and supported by drivers including redirectinginvestment to low-cost locations, automating S's pricing & quoting engine, and reallocatingresources towards higher growth areas like cloud, data, & AI (evidenced by Deception's sunset).FY26 leverage will come primarily from S&M, a lesser extent from G&A, while R&D as a % ofrevenue is expected to remain flat as it continues to invest in product.•CRWD as a Case Study.Note that when CRWD was at a similar scale to S' current$920M of ARR, it had 8% margins and was able to improve its margins by 11 pts to19% over the ensuing 18 months which we believe speaks to S'