米其林升级/大陆集团降级：投资者反馈

20202021US/Europe Ag Trade 20222023 2024 Michael Aspinall * | Equity Analyst+44 (0) 20 7029 8431 | maspinall@jefferies.comPhilippe Houchois ^ | Equity Analyst44 (0) 20 7029 8983 | philippe.houchois@jefferies.comOwen Paterson * | Equity Analyst+44 (0)20 7548 4745 | opaterson@jefferies.comKiara Asinobi * | Equity Associate+44 (0)20 7548 4542 | kasinobi@jefferies.com in Europe & 30% in the US. As such, the c25% drop in Ag tyres that we see in trade data equatesto €215-250m of lost EBIT from the Ag end market alone.Questioning the catalyst for Conti to Hold.Another common area for discussion has beenaround what the catalyst for Conti moving to Hold is, with upcoming CMDs & the actual spin-offstill to come. Whilst this is true, we see limited scope for medium-term targets to be upgradedat the CMD (current mid-term margin targets are 13-16% for Tyres, 6-8% for Automotive, &9-11% for ContiTech). The implied Autos/ContiTech valuations are now c6x EBIT vs 6.8x EBITfor peers (Valeo/Forvia) and c1x EBIT previously. This implies that for the shares to continueto re-rate, Continental & the Automotive business would need to be on a premium to Michelin& Valeo/Forvia, respectively. This is certainly possible, as discussed previously — A ProperComparison | Conti RemainCo vs Michelin | RemainCo €55 + Autos €27.Figure 2 - Conti: Implied ex tyres EV/EBIT multiple and Auto's comp multipleComps used are Forvia/Valeo.0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0Apr-24Jun-24Tires EV/EBITSource: Jefferies, FactsetPlease see important disclosure information on pages 3 - 8 of this report.This report is intended for Jefferies clients only. Unauthorized distribution is prohibited. 5.96.8Aug-24Oct-24Dec-24Feb-25Apr-25Ex tyres EV/EBITAutos comps Company DescriptionContinentalContinental is a global automotive supplier with a varied range of product groups, including vehicle dynamics, passive safety solutions, ADAS,engine systems, hybrid EVs, actuators, infotainment and connectivity, air spring systems, compounding technology, conveyor belts, and passengerand commercial vehicle tires. In 2022, Continental generated €39bn in revenue through five main business segments: Smart Mobility, UserExperience, Architecture and Networking, Tire, and ContiTech. Geographically, Continental’s business is concentrated in Europe, with ~50%revenue contribution from the region, outside that it generates 27% of revenue from North America and 22% from Asia. It was founded in 1871in Germany.MichelinMichelin is a leading global manufacturer of passenger and commercial vehicle tires. In 2022, ML generated €28.6bn in revenues from PC andLT tires, truck tires and specialty business. It was founded in 1863 and is headquartered in Clermont-Ferrand, France.Company Valuation/RisksContinentalWe roll forward our SOTP to avg '25 & '26 and update market multiples to 7.9x for RemainCo and 6.9x for LeaveCo. PT €80. Risks include limitedcontent growth due to legacy portfolio, sharper decline in tire margins, and value destructive M&A.MichelinOur multiple-based €43 PT equates to 2026E EV/EBIT of 9x. Risks include input cost inflation, a return of low-cost imports in North America/Europe, and value-destructive M&A.For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300.Analyst Certification:I, Michael Aspinall, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Philippe Houchois, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Owen Paterson, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) andsubject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations orviews expressed in this research report.I, Kiara Asinobi, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and subjectcompany(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or viewsexpressed in this research report.Registration of non-US analysts:Michael Aspinall is employed by Jefferies International Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified as a research analyst with